KickStarter SR:HK one of Kickstarter's greatest successes, BT4 a dismal failure

[roshan]

Looking at Kickstarted RPG's based on how much they got as a % of their funding goal seems to be more interesting than how much they actually got. SR:HK asked for a very small amount, telling backers that they didn't really need much more to make a better game. Towards the end of their campaign, they actually refused to add more stretch goals, telling backers that from that point onwards, the funds donated to the Kickstarter were effectively just discounter preorders. Yet, they got much more than they expected to. In fact, in terms of meeting their funding goals, they are the second highest performing RPG on the list, narrowly beaten by Unrest which asked for only 3K USD.

On the other hand, Fargo asked for a large amount, while actually expecting to get about thrice as much. Instead, he just ended up with lots of Facebook likes and Twitter followers, but just took in slightly more than his funding goal. In fact, comparing to other RPGs that have gotten attention on the Codex, Bard's Tale 4 is one of the worst 5 in terms of making it's funding goal.

Unrest 1208%
Shadowrun: Hong Kong 1204%
The Banner Saga 723%
Torment: Tides of Numenera 465%
Shadowrun Returns 459%
Darkest Dungeon 417%
Project Eternity 362%
Lords of Xulima 356%
Barkley 2 343%
Wasteland 2 325%
FRONTIERS 314%
Serpent in the Staglands 280%
Telepath Tactics 275%
Paper Sorcerer 263%
Divinity: Original Sin 236%
Antharion - An Old-School RPG 225%
Dead State 221%
Legends of Eisenwald 167%
StarCrawlers 154%
Underworld Ascendant 143%
The Mandate 140%
BEDLAM 128%
The Bard's Tale IV 121%
Expeditions: Conquistador 110%
Sui Generis 106%
Balrum 105%
Dungeons of Aledorn 101%

BTW, not saying that the $$$ don't matter, just wanted to bring up an alternative way of looking at things that hasn't really seen much discussion on these forums.

 

[SniperHF]

The main flaw in your analysis is that I don't think Fargo expected to get 3 times as much as his funding goal for BT4. Double maybe. If he did expect to get 3 times as much with a substantially weaker and more niche property I want some of what he was smoking.

 

[roshan]

The main flaw in your analysis is that I don't think Fargo expected to get 3 times as much as his funding goal for BT4. Double maybe. If he did expect to get 3 times as much with a substantially weaker and more niche property I want some of what he was smoking.

Not exactly sure, but I think he said in an interview before the Kickstarter launch that he hoped to get close to TTON.

 

[Infinitron]

Unfortunately, I didn't record the quote of Brother None telling me that yeah, you can't really say "but actually, we know we might not even beat Wasteland 2" in interview.

So you'll have to take my word for it

 

[Jedi Master Radek]

The fact that your analysis prioritize the funding goal above all render it meaningless. Yes SR:HG made more than BT4 in terms you have chosen, but in fact their have got a similar sum of money. I think had SR asked for a million dolar , it would got it. Also by your way of thinking Unrest is the most desired cRPG ever.

 

[Athelas]

I'm not sure an analysis that concludes that a game that raised 36k is the biggest Kickstarter success story ever holds much value.

 

[Vault Dweller]

Looking at Kickstarted RPG's based on how much they got as a % of their funding goal seems to be more interesting than how much they actually got. SR:HK asked for a very small amount, telling backers that they didn't really need much more to make a better game.

It's a good tactic, nothing else.

When your victory is assured, it's best to ask for a small amount precisely because you'll end up with a massively inflated %, which will be reported all over the gaming media. It was HBS third KS in the same series, they knew how it would turn out. While they didn't need much, they definitely needed more than 100k to make the third game.

Towards the end of their campaign, they actually refused to add more stretch goals, telling backers that from that point onwards, the funds donated to the Kickstarter were effectively just discounter preorders.

Which is as good a reason as any because you know what to expect and you know whether you want to play it or not. Adding effective stretch goals for a third game in a series means heavy improvements or redesign and the return on such things is very low.

On the other hand, Fargo asked for a large amount, while actually expecting to get about thrice as much. Instead, he just ended up with lots of Facebook likes and Twitter followers, but just took in slightly more than his funding goal. In fact, comparing to other RPGs that have gotten attention on the Codex, Bard's Tale 4 is one of the worst 5 in terms of making it's funding goal.

Yet in the end SR: HK got 31,497 backers pledging $1,204,726 and BT4 got 33,741 backers pledging $1,519,680, so I'm not really sure why you feel that one's the greatest success known to men and the other is a horrible failure. What if Fargo asks for a dollar next time and collects a million bucks, exceeding the "goal" by a gajillion and crashing stock markets?

 

[mindx2]

Flawed supposition is flawed...

 

[roshan]

Unfortunately, I didn't record the quote of Brother None telling me that yeah, you can't really say "but actually, we know we might not even beat Wasteland 2" in interview.

So you'll have to take my word for it

"We might not even beat Wasteland 2" can easily imply that they expected another additional 1M USD. Because as per checking it did get roughly 1.4M USD more than Bard's Tale 4. Also I tried to find the source for my earlier statement regarding Fargo, but couldn't, but did come up with this:

"When I announced The Bard's Tale 4 I had more interest and people tweeting me, shut up and take my money,than I ever did on the other two," he says.
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2015-03-27-channeling-xcom-porting-wasteland-2-to-ps4-and-xbox-one

Could be of course PR speak, and it is probably in the context of meeting the funding goals.

 

[roshan]

The fact that your analysis prioritize the funding goal above all render it meaningless. Yes SR:HG made more than BT4 in terms you have chosen, but in fact their have got a similar sum of money. I think had SR asked for a million dolar , it would got it. Also by your way of thinking Unrest is the most desired cRPG ever.

I'm not sure an analysis that concludes that a game that raised 36k is the biggest Kickstarter success story ever holds much value.

Yet in the end SR: HK got 31,497 backers pledging $1,204,726 and BT4 got 33,741 backers pledging $1,519,680, so I'm not really sure why you feel that one's the greatest success known to men and the other is a horrible failure. What if Fargo asks for a dollar next time and collects a million bucks, exceeding the "goal" by a gajillion and crashing stock markets?

From the OP:

"BTW, not saying that the $$$ don't matter, just wanted to bring up an alternative way of looking at things that hasn't really seen much discussion on these forums."

I've seen lots of people here talk about total funding amount, and that's certainly very important, but I'm bringing up this perspective as a rough benchmark to estimate how much the companies expected/needed versus how much they actually got hold of. It stands to reason that people kickstarting projects have some rough idea regarding how much they can get VS how much they need, and probably base their funding goals expecting to get a certain X amount of what they asked for at a very minimum.

 

[Vault Dweller]

One of the biggest issues with KS is that the goal is an abstract, often random amount that doesn't represent how much money is needed AT ALL.

 

[roshan]

It's a good tactic, nothing else.

When your victory is assured, it's best to ask for a small amount precisely because you'll end up with a massively inflated %, which will be reported all over the gaming media. It was HBS third KS in the same series, they knew how it would turn out. While they didn't need much, they definitely needed more than 100k to make the third game.

It was Harebrained's 2nd Kickstarter. After the first essentially did not meet expectations and promises. They were certainly playing it safe as they had no guarantee the market would be as receptive to them, but I certainly don't think they expected to get 12X what they asked for in a more or less "matured" Kickstarter environment. Their last "real" stretch goal for the campaign was at 7X funding.

Which is as good a reason as any because you know what to expect and you know whether you want to play it or not. Adding effective stretch goals for a third game in a series means heavy improvements or redesign and the return on such things is very low.

No disagreements here. This is nothing less than good business practice, and it certainly served to inspire additional confidence in the project.

 

[mindx2]

I've seen lots of people here talk about total funding amount, and that's certainly very important, but I'm bringing up this perspective as a rough benchmark to estimate how much the companies expected/needed versus how much they actually got hold of. It stands to reason that people kickstarting projects have some rough idea regarding how much they can get VS how much they need, and probably base their funding goals expecting to get a certain X amount of what they asked for at a very minimum.

However, InXile isn't approaching their game development in a money vacuum. They are different from most KS campaigns from the fact that they have other revenue sources other than the initial KS funding (back catalog, continuing PayPal, early release, etc.). Most KS start at zero (unless they go nuts like the Coles and mortgage their future) and those KS funds are all they have, that's not the case for Fargo & Co.

 

[getter77]

Their refusal to add more stretch goals at the end was actually quantified with additional funds going towards myriad misc surprises/additions/enhancements/etc if memory serves---it was a nice touch in a general sense.

 

[roshan]

One of the biggest issues with KS is that the goal is an abstract, often random amount that doesn't represent how much money is needed AT ALL.

I think as Kickstarter has developed companies probably have an idea regarding the rough range of possible funding amounts they can pull in, and do set goals accordingly. Barring outliers and considering mostly the projects from established studios, generally, the most highly successful RPGs took in roughly 4X what they asked for. Then you have the very successful ones that did 3X, and then a couple of releases that pulled in 2X. 1X funding has until The Bard's Tale been solely the domain of smaller indies who managed to barely generate attention and scrape by. I think it's safe to say that InXile probably expected to get at least 2X on a worst case scenario, hell, they even reserved their Chris Avellone trump card for a late stretch goal that never even materialized as an announcement.

But in terms of the total amount actually needed to make the game, of course, I will agree that on that basis the Kickstarter funding figures are completely arbitrary.

 

[Ovplain]

Oh fuck you, 'a dismal failure!' It was funded! It was a success. Call it a 'relatively modest success' or some shit like that if you want, but how the fuck can any Kickstarter campaign honestly be a failure if it gets funded?:S

THIS was a dismal failure!

 

[tyrannosaurus rex]

While they didn't need much, they definitely needed more than 100k to make the third game.

I know right it's almost like they don't have any funds from the 2 last games.

Yet in the end SR: HK got 31,497 backers pledging $1,204,726 and BT4 got 33,741 backers pledging $1,519,680, so I'm not really sure why you feel that one's the greatest success known to men and the other is a horrible failure. What if Fargo asks for a dollar next time and collects a million bucks, exceeding the "goal" by a gajillion and crashing stock markets?

It's like BT, a 3d graphics whore blobber which IneXile has no experience develloping, won't be more expansive to develop than the third iteration of the exact same 2D Rpg.

What this lackluster funding is telling Fargo is that he can't invest much more because there's no evidence he will get returns on this. And 1.2 is NOT enough to develop what he just promised.

He's fucked.

 

[GarfunkeL]

Headline worthy of The Daily Mail.

 

[roshan]

THIS was a dismal failure!

He seems like a nice, soft spoken guy, but I really don't see the allure in a campaign that neither promises anything nor provides any real information on the game. "Just give us 1M USD" is really a weak pitch. I mean what does he actually say about the game?

1. It will have cultures!
2. But it will be familiar and perhaps you will have an immediate connection with it!
3. It will have dragons! Tame ones!

No one's going to shell out money based on that.

 

[roshan]

What this lackluster funding is telling Fargo is that he can't invest much more because there's no evidence he will get returns on this. And 1.2 is NOT enough to develop what he just promised.

He's fucked.

Exactly. Consider how much it cost them to develop Wasteland 2, which happens to look like absolute shit... They got about half that amount for Bard's Tale 4, how in the world could they possibly pull off graphics of AAA+ quality?

And look where the millions for Torment got them graphically. Awful and clunky animations, and blurry areas reminiscent of Beamdog's work.

 

[tyrannosaurus rex]

What this lackluster funding is telling Fargo is that he can't invest much more because there's no evidence he will get returns on this. And 1.2 is NOT enough to develop what he just promised.

He's fucked.

Exactly. Consider how much it cost them to develop Wasteland 2, which happens to look like absolute shit... They got about half that amount for Bard's Tale 4, how in the world could they possibly pull off graphics of AAA+ quality?

And look where the millions for Torment got them graphically. Awful and clunky animations, and blurry areas reminiscent of Beamdog's work.

There's no way this is going to end well. Fargo is prepared to sweep this project under the rug, if it ever gets released he won't even try to push it to not be associated too long with a blunder.

 

[Vault Dweller]

I know right it's almost like they don't have any funds from the 2 last games.
...
What this lackluster funding is telling Fargo is that he can't invest much more because there's no evidence he will get returns on this. And 1.2 is NOT enough to develop what he just promised.

I know right it's almost like they don't have any funds from Wasteland 2 sales and future Torment 2 sales.

 

[roshan]

It's like BT, a 3d graphics whore blobber which IneXile has no experience develloping, won't be more expansive to develop than the third iteration of the exact same 2D Rpg.

Some people seem to miss the obvious. SR:HK has a fully built engine that only needs small mechanical enhancements, which is all they promised in the stretch goals. And can reuse their already large pool of existing graphical and sound assets, and whatever they need to produce will still be dirt cheap as they are being produced for a 2D isometric game. Effectively, making SR:HK is not much more difficult than making a module for NWN using the toolset. And they got 2/3rd of how much they got for making DMS entirely from scratch. And if they could make Dragonfall and then update it with the DC without any funding, they certainly didn't need the kickstarter money at all. Hence 100K funding goal for them was actually a realistic base amount. The Kickstarter was essentially an ultra epic slam dunk for HBS.

 

[tyrannosaurus rex]

I know right it's almost like they don't have any funds from the 2 last games.
...
What this lackluster funding is telling Fargo is that he can't invest much more because there's no evidence he will get returns on this. And 1.2 is NOT enough to develop what he just promised.

I know right it's almost like they don't have any funds from Wasteland 2 sales and future Torment 2 sales.

What this lackluster funding is telling Fargo is that he can't invest much more because there's no evidence he will get returns on this. And 1.2 is NOT enough to develop what he just promised.

I knew you would say that so here.

Like he's going to bet the relatively small success he had on Wasteland 2 on a game he has no reason to think will sell well.

 

[tyrannosaurus rex]

It's like BT, a 3d graphics whore blobber which IneXile has no experience develloping, won't be more expansive to develop than the third iteration of the exact same 2D Rpg.

Some people seem to miss the obvious. SR:HK has a fully built engine that only needs small mechanical enhancements, which is all they promised in the stretch goals. And can reuse their already large pool of existing graphical and sound assets, and whatever they need to produce will still be dirt cheap as they are being produced for a 2D isometric game. Effectively, making SR:HK is not much more difficult than making a module for NWN using the toolset. And they got 2/3rd of how much they got for making DMS entirely from scratch. And if they could make Dragonfall and then update it with the DC without any funding, they certainly didn't need the kickstarter money at all. Hence 100K funding goal for them was actually a realistic base amount. The Kickstarter was essentially an ultra epic slam dunk for HBS.

They also have every reasons to believe HK will sell well as they're adding on an existing audience for this exact type of title. Fargo is trying something new every time and this will come to kick him in the ass.