Incline TES: Online will kill WoW

[jcd]

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[Hoaxmetal]

It amuses me when people derp about WoW being dead, nobody playing it or something :D Sure, the subscriber numbers have been in a decline but it's far from dead. There are plenty older mmos still doing relatively well and they didn't have a buffer of 10+mil players to decline from. It's hard for me to imagine a scenario where they start loosing subscribers at an alarming rate and the mentioned buffer helps with subscriber loss in the pre-expansion period.

Also with Diabel + Starcraft and upcoing HOTS + Titan they will keep their playerbase either way, just spread between several games. I am expecting a ton of features that'll work between battle.net games (like now you can get WoW mount by playing Hearthstone).

 

[Rahdulan]

As to ESO being a WoW killer - that's just foolish talk. That's the same silly "prediction" that every fan boy from every MMO since WoW became super successful has been spouting.

WoW will remain the top dog on the MMO pile because it maintains critical mass. People go back to WoW because their friends play WoW. Their friends play WoW because -their- friends play WoW.

I'm dying to know just how many will return to WoW after Blizzard updates old race models, if only to see the changes for themselves.

 

[Xor]

That's what youtube is for.

 

[Servo]

Recently I saw an advertisement for a new WoW expansion. Not only was this expansion priced at a whopping $59.99, this is a 10+ year old subscription based game priced at $14.99 per month.

The Elder Scrolls Online is also based on a similar business model. However, it is new and *shiny*, has a substantially different art style and color palette to WoW, has an optional yet completely viable first person POV and above all it is powered by the TES Brand name. It offers a few things that will be new to the WoW crowd. All this will be sufficient to draw players away from WoW, and spell the death knell for that MMO behemoth. WoW will not collapse overnight ofcourse, as even UO is still continuing after around 20 years.

But WoW will cease eventually to make a difference or to matter. And this will directly be the fault of TES: Online.

Wat? People don't play WOW for purdy graphics. They play it because they're sheep.

You think TES is a big enough brand name to accomplish this? And Star Wars isn't?

 

[Stereotypical Villain]

I'm dying to know just how many will return to WoW after Blizzard updates old race models, if only to wank of to their re-skinned waifus.

Fixed.

 

[Excidium]

They are updating draenei last though

 

[King Crispy]

God damn this thread sucks.

 

[Comte]

People have been predicting the end of WoW for years. I remember years ago when the Conan MMO was coming out people said WoW was finished. I guess they were wrong then and their wrong now about ESO killing WoW.

 

[Delterius]

Maybe there could be a WoW reference in a post apoc RPG. Like it somehow survived the nuclear holocaust and people still play it. "A strange game from yore which used to trap the minds of billions, freezing them in a frenesi while they were fattened and herded towards the slaughterhouse". Or something like that. And of course people are still playing WoW.

 

[felipepepe]

Wow has like 8M subscribers, all paying... if SOE is STILL milking Everquest and releasing expansions, you can expect WoW to stay alive for at least another decade. And it will never be F2P.

 

[Black_Willow]

Playing WoW ATM and liking it
As for the topic - WoW has more than 7M subscribers. Some devs once said that in order to keep the current number of servers they need about $50M/month. The subscriber number would have to fall to half of what they have, and seeing how they got more subscribers in the last quarter - I don't think it's going to happen soon.

 

[Azrael the cat]

No game that uses the EQ model is going to 'kill' WoW, because for most of WoW's base it isn't worth shifting longterm to a game with only a fraction of the content, when the mechanics aren't radically different.

 

[Wilian]

Playing WoW ATM and liking it
As for the topic - WoW has more than 7M subscribers. Some devs once said that in order to keep the current number of servers they need about $50M/month. The subscriber number would have to fall to half of what they have, and seeing how they got more subscribers in the last quarter - I don't think it's going to happen soon.

I don't believe they need 50m to keep servers up. I read that box sales from TBC alone gave them so much moolah that it covered all the dev costs and upkeep costs from 2001 to 2008..

 

[Xor]

Playing WoW ATM and liking it
As for the topic - WoW has more than 7M subscribers. Some devs once said that in order to keep the current number of servers they need about $50M/month. The subscriber number would have to fall to half of what they have, and seeing how they got more subscribers in the last quarter - I don't think it's going to happen soon.

They'd start merging and closing servers long before they reach half the current population anyway.

Playing WoW ATM and liking it
As for the topic - WoW has more than 7M subscribers. Some devs once said that in order to keep the current number of servers they need about $50M/month. The subscriber number would have to fall to half of what they have, and seeing how they got more subscribers in the last quarter - I don't think it's going to happen soon.

I don't believe they need 50m to keep servers up. I read that box sales from TBC alone gave them so much moolah that it covered all the dev costs and upkeep costs from 2001 to 2008..

Don't believe everything you read. TBC would've only made them around $300 million at most, and who knows how much the expansion cost to make.

$50 million per month for how much data center space WoW probably needs, plus equipment replacement costs, maintainence, and on-site staff sounds pretty reasonable. That's probably not even including support staff, community management, and further development of the game. MMORPGs are expensive.

 

[Morality Games]

Recently I saw an advertisement for a new WoW expansion. Not only was this expansion priced at a whopping $59.99, this is a 10+ year old subscription based game priced at $14.99 per month.

The Elder Scrolls Online is also based on a similar business model. However, it is new and *shiny*, has a substantially different art style and color palette to WoW, has an optional yet completely viable first person POV and above all it is powered by the TES Brand name. It offers a few things that will be new to the WoW crowd. All this will be sufficient to draw players away from WoW, and spell the death knell for that MMO behemoth. WoW will not collapse overnight ofcourse, as even UO is still continuing after around 20 years.

But WoW will cease eventually to make a difference or to matter. And this will directly be the fault of TES: Online.

WoW survives based on the sheer and overwhelming mass of time players have invested into it. No amount of 'newness' can compensate for the sheer amount of life it took to level and equip several versatile builds. And even if you snag a few new players, you won't get them all, and they'll go crawling back to their guildies, either "because friends!" or because they like its long established organizational structure and loot distribution better than the Wild West of a new MMO, where the odds of an "alienating experience" in a new guild increase exponentially. And one bad experience is all it takes to make the comfortable and familiar seem like your true home.

It's sort of like the Ring of Power. At best a player might toy with the idea of playing another MMO, but that is only at an early stage, before the grind takes it hold. He who plays WoW doesn't get bored, but neither does he grow or obtain new play experiences. He becomes the shadow of a greater shadow, emptying out his wallet according to the whims of the powers that made it.

 

[Azrael the cat]

Maybe there could be a WoW reference in a post apoc RPG. Like it somehow survived the nuclear holocaust and people still play it. "A strange game from yore which used to trap the minds of billions, freezing them in a frenesi while they were fattened and herded towards the slaughterhouse". Or something like that. And of course people are still playing WoW.

Could have a vampire/monster rpg where WoW is viewed by the vampires as a form of 'factory farming', used to fatten up the 'livestock' while massively reducing the amount of space required per human. Other vampires complain that it's animal cruelty and only eat 'free range humans', while others still are worried about the consequences of the massive amount of antibiotics that have to be given to the livestock in order to compensate for the horrific living conditions (pizza boxes stacked high, 'livestock' crapping their pants at their computer desk because they don't want to leave the game to use the toilet halfway through the raid, etc).

 

[Xor]

Actually WoW players do get bored. I did. All my in-game friends did. That's the reason why subscriber numbers are finally dropping - there are more people quitting out of boredom than there are new players joining. Of course, if the game had gone in a different direction things might be better. I suspect subscriber numbers would be holding steady if Blizzard hadn't radically retooled the raiding game in Wrath, and then continued to make it easier in Cataclysm (where you can actually see the decline begin), and Panda (where they destroyed the last shreds of server community and removed the need to know any other players to do anything).

I know this has been discussed to death but speaking from experience, social ties are what keep people playing the game. I quit when ToC came out, but I would have probably kept playing through the release of Cataclysm if my guild hadn't broken up just before ToC's release. I was already getting bored with the game at that point, but my friends kept me coming back week after week. I have no idea what Blizzard was thinking with their drive to make raiding easier - the game trucked along just fine with only .5% of all players seeing the super-hard endgame content. It gave us something to strive for. Hard modes just don't have the same mystique. The end result of all these changes was pretty obvious to me: people will get bored faster and quit the game.

All the time I've invested into WoW does make it difficult to get invested into a new game, however. I've yet to find another MMO that captures the same feeling of wonder I had exploring Azeroth for the first time a decade ago. That's probably because no other MMO had the level of polish and dedication invested into it that WoW did even at its initial launch. WoW has become a shell of its former self and other MMOs just can't hold up to the standard it set, so the end result is that I've basically given up MMOs altogether.

 

[Average Manatee]

$50 million per month for how much data center space WoW probably needs, plus equipment replacement costs, maintainence, and on-site staff sounds pretty reasonable. That's probably not even including support staff, community management, and further development of the game. MMORPGs are expensive.

Please tell me you are joking.

 

[Xor]

I have no idea how much that stuff would actually cost. I'm just saying it sounds plausible to me. I'd actually love to be proven wrong; do we have any IT experts who could guesstimate the cost of running probably a few hundred high-end servers and however much data WoW probably goes through in a month? Plus the cost of paying staff, and the other things I mentioned.

 

[Wilian]

$50 million per month for how much data center space WoW probably needs, plus equipment replacement costs, maintainence, and on-site staff sounds pretty reasonable. That's probably not even including support staff, community management, and further development of the game. MMORPGs are expensive.

Please tell me you are joking.

He has to be. 50 million a month is sort of a bad joke though..

It's probably more like 5-10 million a month and even that's stretching it, considering how damn cheap server space is these days, and since they're well established they don't have to "rent it" so running costs are probably just electric + service.

 

[Wilian]

I have no idea how much that stuff would actually cost. I'm just saying it sounds plausible to me. I'd actually love to be proven wrong; do we have any IT experts who could guesstimate the cost of running probably a few hundred high-end servers and however much data WoW probably goes through in a month? Plus the cost of paying staff, and the other things I mentioned.

It was Kalgan who said TBC box sales recouped entire WoW upkeep/dev for 2001-2008 I believe, so pretty reliable source in that sense.

 

[Average Manatee]

I have no idea how much that stuff would actually cost. I'm just saying it sounds plausible to me. I'd actually love to be proven wrong; do we have any IT experts who could guesstimate the cost of running probably a few hundred high-end servers and however much data WoW probably goes through in a month? Plus the cost of paying staff, and the other things I mentioned.

First off, MMOs aren't high-end services. The individual data throughput needed per player is incredibly low. We're talking ~50 KB/s, max. Watching an HD video on youtube for a few minutes will equal hours of MMO time. It's also not very latency sensitive. More latency sensitive than just downloading a file but far, far less than something like FPS or voice chat. MMOs also aren't really complex simulations, hell the AI and aggro system is basically designed to be the dumbest and simplest thing possible.

All this boils down to servers themselves being incredibly cheap. So cheap that they are probably ignorable in the grand scheme. The only difference between WoW and, say, TOR is that TOR would have an east and west coast data center with 10 servers running and WoW would have a data center with 100 servers running, but the server investment is a one time cost (mostly, you might have to spend a few thousand a year on replacement). At most the difference is that TOR has to hire 3 $100k a year employees to keep watch while WoW hires 6-10 of them. Multiply that a few times for Europe/Asia and whatever they do in Aussieland and that's your cost to maintain the server infrastructure

I'm ignoring support staff and the community management stuff though. That's an area that can actually get expensive, but it's quite hard to estimate how expensive given how extensive automatic support systems have become and how many jobs can be farmed out to people in India for $1 an hour. No company is paying a $15/hour employee to provide support to players paying $15/month.

 

[Xor]

I'm pretty sure most of not all of Blizzard's support staff is based in the US. At the very least, their call center is located in Dallas and their GM-related jobs are located there as well. They probably have another call center in Europe to handle the EU servers, too. Their US call center is only open during the day, but their GMs need to be available 24/7 (or at least that was the case when I was playing).

In any case, I can't find the quote that someone brought up about the game costing $50 million a month, so who knows what was actually said.

 

[Wilian]

EU and US has separate teams, this is most apparent when you call in and you get a fellow Finn answering the phone. You have to move to France for the job but not US.