Was Dragon Age: Inquisition a commercial failure?

[Mustawd]

I don't agree with this unless you consider "mediocre" to be over a million units sold.

I'd say in this case a bit over a million units sold in two months is about mediocre. Seeing that I'm seeing ME3 sold more than that in its first month of release. For me mediocre means, "Good enough", "ok", "good for what it is", etc. I don't think DA:I is doing poorly. But when you are rolling out GOTY awards and use the word "Masterpiece" I'd expect a bigger splash revenue-wise.

Also, where are you getting the 1 million units sold?

This depends on your definition of 'huge success' - Inquisition is doing well enough for EA for them to devote significant real estate in their earnings report to keep bringing it back up. When a game does not do as expected they (EA) shuts up about it fast. The game gets a brief line noting that it was released and maybe something else but then it goes away.

Agreed. I think we might disagree on whether or not "good enough" in sales is..well good enough. We still have to take into account that margins ultimately matter although sales are a factor.

As to the hours played - that is a strange statistic. I question why they mention that instead of units sold but if we go with the hefty assumption that an average player plays 100 hours of Dragon's Age: Inquisition then we are left with 1.18 million units sold. But, this brings up the question of why did EA not announce 1 million units sold? That seems to be a milestone that is understandable and potentially useful.

Agree on how weird that is. But 1.18 million units sold for two months is what...barely better than ME3's first month? That's not extremely encouraging.

Were to listening and reading the same earnings report as I was?

I think so. What concrete positives did you take away from the call? What I heard was:

-CFO discounting weak NPD sales figures in December due to what...International sales not being all revenue and NPD only measures physical games?
-Hours played...no sales amounts or even indication of how well sales are doing. Something like X% growth in sales...#XYZ ranking among other games
-Vague statements on "best release", which can mean literally anything.
-COO saying that December was a blip in terms of weak sales since he mentioned there are still digital sales that will probably happen in January. But most of digital sales are not full games..it's DLC and Mobile. So doesn't really apply to DA:I
-Calling something a "Masterpiece" and GOTY is fine, but doesn't mean anything if enough people don't buy it.


So to me it was a lot of waving stuff away (CFOs comments), hype (GOTY, best release, masterpeice), and comments that don't necessarily affect DA:I (COO's comment on January digital sales).

Damage control does not involve upping expectations or making more per share then was estimated.

Financial amounts are based on total revenue for EA. And to me, at least around DA:I, it most certainly was damage control. It might not be total full blown backpedaling, but it's most certainly spin, which to me = damage control.

It's not a massive earthquake type of disaster. But IMO it most certainly is a brush fire in Summer that needs some attention by the Fire Department lest it becomes a full blown raging forest fire.

You might not like EA and you may think Inquisition isn't a great game (I'm down with both of those) but EA made almost one and a half billion dollars in four months. That's a fair bit of coin.

Haven't played DA:I and I like EA just fine. Grew up playing all the sports games as a kid/teenager. But I look at things like Earnings Calls, 10ks, and 10Qs for a living. So I huess I just like discussing these things.

Look back at some of my previous posts and you'll see me arguing the other side that a slow start in sales doesn't necessarily mean it won't be a sucess eventually or will not generate a sequel. I'm just speculating that DA:I is performing at a mediocre level based on EA's tone, rhetoric, and specific things they say or don't say about DA:I.

 

[Press X for Feels]

I don't agree with this unless you consider "mediocre" to be over a million units sold.

In this day and age of bloated budgets, it is mediocre-to-bad. Remember when Square Enix declared Tomb Raider to be a financial disappointment even though it sold something like six million copies?

 

[meanwhileInPoland]

I don't agree with this unless you consider "mediocre" to be over a million units sold.

In this day and age of bloated budgets, it is mediocre-to-bad. Remember when Square Enix declared Tomb Raider to be a financial disappointment even though it sold something like six million copies?

TR sold 3.4 mln units and fucktard at SE expected twice as much. We dont know how much exactly sold DAI but it sold more than EA expected.

"In particular, Dragon Age: Inquisition had by far the most successful launch in BioWare’s history, exceeding our expectations."

ANYWAY
http://www.pcgamer.com/dragon-age-inquisition-had-most-successful-launch-in-bioware-history/

lol

Update: An EA representative confirmed to Gamespot that the "most successful launch" metric was "based on units sold, but we are not disclosing that total."

BTFO:kwafuckyeah:

 

[Infinitron]

The launch exceeded their expectations, not the total sales. In the end, it's a zero-sum game.

 

[Press X for Feels]

Yeah most successful launch doesn't really mean anything what with hype, pre-orders and fanboyism. The real test is how well the game can sell after the original burst, and considering this...

ANYWAY
http://www.pcgamer.com/dragon-age-inquisition-had-most-successful-launch-in-bioware-history/

lol

Update: An EA representative confirmed to Gamespot that the "most successful launch" metric was "based on units sold, but we are not disclosing that total."

BTFO:kwafuckyeah:

It isn't. And that must be disappointing for EA, they definitely wanted this to be their Skyrim considering the open world and their emphasis on not having to play the previous games.

 

[Mustawd]

"Update: An EA representative confirmed to Gamespot that the "most successful launch" metric was "based on units sold, but we are not disclosing that total.""

That can mean anything.

Preorders = units sold; Forecast sales = based on units sold; Pace of first days sales compared with other games = based on units sold;


In that case I am the richest man in the US....based on dollars in a bank account...but I am not disclosing the total.

EDIT: I'm surprised the random PR rep commented on that at all. Would have been better off saying No Comment. NOw everyone is speculating as to why sale numbers don't seem high enough per NPD and/or why nothing about actual sales has been discussed.

 

[Abu Antar]

As far as I know, they didn't give numbers for any of their games.

 

[imweasel]

Mustawd
EA is just beating around the bush with their PR bullshit. If the game sold very well then they would outright say that, i.e. "DA:I is the fastest selling Bioware title ever", but they aren't. And chart data reflects upon this.

 

[Sykar]

Mustawd
EA is just beating around the bush with their PR bullshit. If the game sold very well then they would outright say that, i.e. "DA:I is the fastest selling Bioware title ever", but they aren't. And chart data reflects upon this.

Could give a sliver of hope for humanity of Dragon Derp flops.

 

[Infinitron]

I doubt it's an outright flop, but if the next game from Bioware Edmonton is a slam dunk with a short dev time, you'll know why.

 

[Whiran]

Also, where are you getting the 1 million units sold?

Making it up of course: guesswork from trying to make sense of their obfuscation.

From everything that EA has said about the game it would appear that it sold at least a million copies. Or not.

-Hours played...no sales amounts or even indication of how well sales are doing. Something like X% growth in sales...#XYZ ranking among other games

EA (and other gaming publishers) seem to really like the hours played statistic. I guess they feel that it goes over well with analysts and it's a metric that appears to matter for free-to-play type games as well.

Financial amounts are based on total revenue for EA. And to me, at least around DA:I, it most certainly was damage control. It might not be total full blown backpedaling, but it's most certainly spin, which to me = damage control.

Fair enough, I was referencing EA as a total company doing well and exceeding expectations as opposed to focusing in on Dragon's Age: Inquisition. That's a bit silly of me considering the subject of this thread but there it was.

As for the charts this is what VGchartz has for Dragon's Age: Inquisition - note, these charts do not track digital sales or pre-sales.

First Week (week ending Nov 22nd, 2014)
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41966/Global/

Dragon Age: Inquisition [Gamewise]
Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS4) Electronic Arts, Role-Playing 423,676
Dragon Age: Inquisition (XOne) Electronic Arts, Role-Playing 205,612
Dragon Age: Inquisition (PC) Electronic Arts, Role-Playing 162,166
Dragon Age: Inquisition (X360) Electronic Arts, Role-Playing 120,096
Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS3) Electronic Arts, Role-Playing 117,004

Total from first week of sales: 1,028,225 units

Second Week (week ending Nov 29, 2014)
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41973/Global/

Dragon Age: Inquisition Wiki - Gamewise
Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS4) Electronic Arts, Role-Playing 229,196

Unfortunately the rest of their data for Dragon's Age is hidden behind their paywall of being a "pro" subscription and I don't care that much to pay for it.

That makes ~1.2+ million units sold in the first two weeks.

The Third week has some more numbers (ending Dec 06, 2014)
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41980/Global/

Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS4) Electronic Arts, Role-Playing 153,182

Week 4 (ending Dec 13, 2014)
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41987/Global/

Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS4) Electronic Arts, Role-Playing 139,988

At week 5 the PS4 edition drops into "Pro" territory.

In week 7 it pops back up (ending Jan 03, 2015)
http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/42008/Global/

Dragon Age: Inquisition (PS4) Electronic Arts, Role-Playing 68,751

The funny bit is that vgchartz keeps a cumulative total running and in week 7 for the PS4 Dragon's Age: Inquisition is listed as 1,300,847 sold. At the end of week 4 DA:I for the PS4 had sold 946,042. So between week 7 and week 4 sales were (week 7: 68,751+ weeks 5&6: 286,054)

Going back to the original numbers we see that by January DA:I has sold 1,905,725 according to VGcharts - note this does not include downloads, pre-orders, or the sales from Xbone, X-box 360, PS3, or PC after the first week. I think it is reasonable to assume at least 100k more units sold. So, at least 2 million sold by January.

 

[Mustawd]

EA (and other gaming publishers) seem to really like the hours played statistic. I guess they feel that it goes over well with analysts and it's a metric that appears to matter for free-to-play type games as well.

Maybe? I don't the industry well enough. But if you notice for other games that do well (aka Sports games) they do mention sales growth, number of players, etc. Hours is a real hard metric to get your arms around. I doubt analysts really like it (they like anything that helps them get an idea of revenue/net income growth), but it's probably a throw away statistic for the John Q public for marketing purposes. But like I said, that's pure speculation on my part.

As for the charts this is what VGchartz has for Dragon's Age: Inquisition - note, these charts do not track digital sales or pre-sales.

I thought the consensus around here was that VGchartz was shit?

So, at least 2 million sold by January.

Yeah, 2 million is not "bad" or a failure. And let's say that some gamer's grandmother at VGchartz got lucky and guessed 2 million correctly...Still seems like it'd be in line with ME3 sales, maybe a bit lower? Which is nice I guess.

Can anyone copmment on how much DA:I was marketed compared with ME3?

 

[Whiran]

Yeah, 2 million is not "bad" or a failure. And let's say that some gamer's grandmother at VGchartz got lucky and guessed 2 million correctly...Still seems like it'd be in line with ME3 sales, maybe a bit lower? Which is nice I guess.

I'd guess based off of EA's statements that DA:I did, in fact, sell more than ME2 (which did better initially than ME3) - even if it was just one unit more.

 

[Jaedar]

People in this thread need to remember that EA considers anything less than 2 million copies sold a flop, or at least not worthy of a sequel. This is based on what they said a few years back of course, so it might have changed.

 

[Mustawd]

Yeah, 2 million is not "bad" or a failure. And let's say that some gamer's grandmother at VGchartz got lucky and guessed 2 million correctly...Still seems like it'd be in line with ME3 sales, maybe a bit lower? Which is nice I guess.

I'd guess based off of EA's statements that DA:I did, in fact, sell more than ME2 (which did better initially than ME3) - even if it was just one unit more.

Well, their "best start in Bioware history" doesn't mean much when they dither and say it's "based on units sold" without saying outright what that means. "Based" can mean anything. Especially since they have not defined what the timeframe for "start" means.

 

[Jaesun]

vgchartz are magical made up fake numbers and are utterly meaningless Whiran just FYI. If you want actual sales data see NPD.

 

[turul]

Most successful launch yes. Shelf life? Very short, thanks to the fact, that the game can't be modded, because of the DRM they have in place. Skyrim would have been long forgotten in 2011 if nobody could replace textures or add more content for free of charge.
They still haven't fixed their directX issue they have with the Frostbite engine, appearantly being around since the DA:O.

Spoiler

 

[Whiran]

vgchartz are magical made up fake numbers and are utterly meaningless Whiran just FYI. If you want actual sales data see NPD.

I agree that vgchartz is basically guesswork but it is something.

I've seen mention of NPD but haven't had an opportunity to see their reports.

Perhaps you can link directly to the data itself? I have seen a few people mention NPD but as best I can tell you have to purchase their report - which I'm not really that interested in doing.

I will assume that everyone who claims NPD's data is better has seen it and can just copy it over. That'd be great!

I'm curious to see how far off vgchartz is from them.

 

[Roguey]

I doubt it's an outright flop, but if the next game from Bioware Edmonton is a slam dunk with a short dev time, you'll know why.

This was likely a given anyway considering the expense of new engine.

Most successful launch yes. Shelf life? Very short, thanks to the fact, that the game can't be modded, because of the DRM they have in place. Skyrim would have been long forgotten in 2011 if nobody could replace textures or add more content for free of charge.

Whether a game can be modded or not doesn't mean anything at all to console players, where Skryim sold the most.

 

[Mustawd]

vgchartz are magical made up fake numbers and are utterly meaningless Whiran just FYI. If you want actual sales data see NPD.

I agree that vgchartz is basically guesswork but it is something.

I've seen mention of NPD but haven't had an opportunity to see their reports.

Perhaps you can link directly to the data itself? I have seen a few people mention NPD but as best I can tell you have to purchase their report - which I'm not really that interested in doing.

I will assume that everyone who claims NPD's data is better has seen it and can just copy it over. That'd be great!

I'm curious to see how far off vgchartz is from them.

NPD charts are in the last two pages of this thread. Unfortunately, NPD stopped publishing actual sales numbers in 2012 (right after ME3 IIRC). Think I read somewhere that VGChartz used to be more accurate before NPD stopped publishing sales. They would use the NPD numbers to "calibrate" their own random guesses.

 

[Whiran]

NPD charts are in the last two pages of this thread. Unfortunately, NPD stopped publishing actual sales numbers in 2012 (right after ME3 IIRC). Think I read somewhere that VGChartz used to be more accurate before NPD stopped publishing sales. They would use the NPD numbers to "calibrate" their own random guesses.

I must be blind, I didn't see any useful NPD info in the last two pages.

There is a mention of the Top UK sales and that is it.

Someone over at NeoGAF threw out a number of around 650k without sourcing it and people seem to accept it. There is no info as to where this person got the number other than "leaked NPD numbers." And yet the only NPD data in the NeoGAF thread is the UK chart that has no data on it.

Are people trying to extrapolate from a numberless UK chart or was there some NPD data somewhere that I can't find?

 

[pippin]

lol dude you think biodrones play that game to hunt and kill dragons? most of them on bsn or reddit admit to have problems with killing a single dragon in hinterlands while playing on easy. ffs even "journalists" in gamespot videos barely made it... the fucking state of this industry

you know very well what are they looking for in DAI...

I've said it before: Bioware is aiming for the 50 shades of creepy porn fans. Skyrim might have sold 20 million, but the books sold over a 100 million. If they can convince even only a part of them to convert to gaming, then those old-fashioned folks, who play games to kill dragons will become a minority. And no one will cater to them anymore. This is the future of cRPG gaming.

It's easier and cheaper to play a meet n fuck game.
If anything, they are aiming for the tumblr audience. If they don't sell enough copies, they fail to realize they are trying to convince people who think loggin out of tumblr for one day is an actual and valid form of "protesting against sexism".

 

[Mustawd]

NPD charts are in the last two pages of this thread. Unfortunately, NPD stopped publishing actual sales numbers in 2012 (right after ME3 IIRC). Think I read somewhere that VGChartz used to be more accurate before NPD stopped publishing sales. They would use the NPD numbers to "calibrate" their own random guesses.

I must be blind, I didn't see any useful NPD info in the last two pages.

There is a mention of the Top UK sales and that is it.

Someone over at NeoGAF threw out a number of around 650k without sourcing it and people seem to accept it. There is no info as to where this person got the number other than "leaked NPD numbers." And yet the only NPD data in the NeoGAF thread is the UK chart that has no data on it.

Are people trying to extrapolate from a numberless UK chart or was there some NPD data somewhere that I can't find?

My bad. Last three or four pages.

December 2014 NPD

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=972713


March 2012 (ME3 Release month)

http://www.gamespot.com/forums/syst...sales-march-2012-update-7-vita-200k-29132239/

and

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/NPD_March_2012

 

[a Goat]

Whether a game can be modded or not doesn't mean anything at all to console players, where Skryim sold the most.

This point is a little tricky.
Get back to the first page for reference - Todd considers PC version of Skyrim to do far better than any other.
It might be PR stuff, it might be just the fact that it's the only somewhat working version of this game(because the playerbase fixed it), but it's better to bear it in mind.

 

[GarfunkeL]

Skyrim initially sold much better on consoles but eventually - in 2 years - ended up selling more on PC than on consoles. And that's definitely helped by modding, though one shouldn't discount the popular culture aspect.