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Incline The Second Video Game Crash.

Joined
Dec 17, 2013
Messages
5,146
There can't be another crash like in the 80s for the simple reason that video games have become a much larger and more important part of general culture.

Think about it, no matter how much someone liked playing them in early 80s, the games back then were simplistic as hell. So they were just a fun diversion at best, and when the diversion became oversaturated, people hit the pause button. But now, games are a lot more sophisticated, and have become another major entertainment medium, just like television and literature. Can something crash those two? For the same reason, as long as civilization survives, I don't see games crashing in the same way, although dips in sales due to lack of originality and quality are certainly possible.
 

Generic-Giant-Spider

Guest
Hey Atari, you fuckers, I'm still waiting for my chance at completing the Swordquest contest.

image.jpg


I want my gilded jewel hilted sword and you don't want to make an enemy out of me lemme tell ya'.
 

KeighnMcDeath

RPG Codex Boomer
Joined
Nov 23, 2016
Messages
13,008
How much of that swag got melted down? I guess you had to astral travel with your Atari to find the air world cartridge and play your way to the finals. So occultish the dark lords of Atari be.
 

SpoilVictor

Educated
Joined
Feb 25, 2018
Messages
84
Location
My room, sometimes other rooms
Will The Second Crash come? I hope so, but there is a long way to go.

Biggest problem is fallacy that videogame industry is heading in wrong direction. Well, maybe it is according to vocal minority like RPGCodex and few others, but not according to mass market. All Ass Creeds, Far Cries, CoDs, BFs may seem like boring, repetetive pulp but not for millions who buy them every year. Not to mention juggernauts like FIFA which sell like cupcakes, and customers not only embraced paying for annual rooster update (sometimes called new version of the game every year), but also pay-to-win loot-boxes (the very same model EA tried to put in Battlefront 2). GTA Online, for reasons unknown for me, made Rockstar so much money they not only cancelled DLC but didn't have to release any game for 5 years.

Profits go up - customers are happy and there is more and more of them. Sure there is some limit what market can sustain - with current push for "games as a service" titles will flop, dragging devs with them. Like Bioware will join mass grave of former EA dev studios after Anthem tanks. But AAA publishers now have enough money to survive failure of even big games (to the point that they actively seek to destroy some of their games like Titanfall 2). It is not "go big or die" scenario.

It seems to be current trend. Holywood is creatively bankrupt for years, they are rebooting everything they can, and rarely if at all they do better than originals. Have you heard of any major studio going out of bussiness? Marvel is spitting 456th generic superhero movie with generic villain destroying generic city - peeps are storming cinemas with doors and windows. You have to screw up really bad like that Han Solo movie, but Disney still isn't going anywhere because movie tanked.

Don't even get me strted on music industry.

TL;DR - videogame market is healthier than ever, profits are going up, same for customer count. Majority of customers are content, being so conditioned to digest that pulp of entertainment.

If I recall coretctly last big bankrupcy of (kinda) major publisher was in 2012 - THQ. And it was mostly due their idiotic investment in some drawing tablet not video games. Since then we had a new gen of consoles, various controversies, rise of loot-boxes, games as a service and still publishers are trurning profit up and up with audacity to say "Develpoement is to expensive - we need to profit more".
 

KeighnMcDeath

RPG Codex Boomer
Joined
Nov 23, 2016
Messages
13,008
Lots of people fucking and having kids. BAM! More to market to esp in a gamer family. More tech across the world more people. And they were worried about people being addicted to painkillers when cellphones are so rampant. I used to laugh at Star Trek TNG; all those tablets. I was like, that ain’t ever happening.
 

Hobo Elf

Arcane
Joined
Feb 17, 2009
Messages
14,022
Location
Platypus Planet
It seems to be current trend. Holywood is creatively bankrupt for years, they are rebooting everything they can, and rarely if at all they do better than originals. Have you heard of any major studio going out of bussiness? Marvel is spitting 456th generic superhero movie with generic villain destroying generic city - peeps are storming cinemas with doors and windows. You have to screw up really bad like that Han Solo movie, but Disney still isn't going anywhere because movie tanked.

The important thing here that I feel we need to underline is that even though the Han Solo movie got poor reviews, it still made them a shitload of profit in the box office. They don't care if the reviews are crap because people are going to go and watch the movie regardless.
 

Goi~Yaas~Dinn

Savant
Joined
Nov 25, 2018
Messages
786
Location
A derelict.
The industry itself will never crash, dude. That's like saying "When is Hollywood gonna crash?". They will secure a fucking government bailout if they ever even sense that outcome approaching. What's prolly gonna happen instead is the console market segment being voluntarily abandoned for PC and mobile gaming. Both are far more profitable with much more gullible consumers, and are either locked down or can readily be made so (which is the only advantage traditional console gaming had left, for the companies).
 

Zenith

Arbiter
Joined
Apr 26, 2017
Messages
296
Honestly thought this was a 2013 necro at first.
"Risk-averse publishers! Microtransactions! THQ and LucasArts closures! Endless rehashes! Oceans of indie trash [on mobile]! The second crash is here, it's happening right now!"
Yeah, you wish.
 
Joined
Aug 10, 2012
Messages
5,894
Yeah, I like Jeremy and all but at the end of the day he's a YT bottom feeder that's trying to find a new 'niche' since his Magic schtick died down. Videogames ain't it, bud.
 

Telengard

Arcane
Joined
Nov 27, 2011
Messages
1,621
Location
The end of every place
So, number-of-games-being-released-per-year, that number only crossed 2008's number like the year before last. Which means, this is nowhere near saturation.

There is one actual difference between now and 2008, though. Back in 2008, all of the stores were curated, so YOU didn't ever have to see any of the many indie titles on the market. You could walk into a store, and there would only be mass-market games for you to buy, with maybe if you went to a warehouse store they might have a dump bin with some indie titles thrown in haphazardly. And in that way, you were told to buy the mass-market games, and you bought what you were told, and so you could safely ignore the fact that all those indie games even existed. Of course, it should be mentioned that for the brick and mortar stores, they had to be curated because of limited shelf space, so even if they didn't exactly have to be curated for mass-market sales, they would have had to be curated in some way anyways. For online retailers, though, they had to be curated because they knew their customers were fucking lazy and wanted someone to weed through the games for them and tell them what to buy.

But then along came the 2008 crash, and during the recession, all the mass-market games companies scaled back their number of release or outright went belly-up. With fewer companies around, and those still around releasing fewer games, that meant fewer games coming on the market. And fewer games meant fewer things to sell for online vendors like Steam. So, rather than watch their sales numbers drop off a cliff, they decided to let a few select indies onto the platform. And all the lazies were still happy, because now there were the same number of games being released on the store as before, and Steam was still telling them what to buy, even if those indie titles weren't quite what they expected. But then one year Steam decided not to do any more weeding. And ever after all the lazies had to do awful, awful things like use the Search function, or press the Find Other Games Like This button, and pressing buttons and typing search words, that's like work -- way, way too much effort for the lazies to want to do. Of course, rather than complain about being asked to actually make an effort, the lazies would rather make up conspiracy theories or dystopian predictions, all in order to explain away their laziness as not being laziness at all, but rather someone else's fault. Which is only to be expected, really, since that is the laziest option.
 

toro

Arcane
Vatnik
Joined
Apr 14, 2009
Messages
14,083


Let it crash and burn.


2019 AAA menu is strong: Metro:Exodus, Sekiro, The Outer Worlds (more like AA), Ghost of Tsushima, Dying Light 2, Death Stranding (maybe) and many more.

Maybe Bethesda has to rethink twice before releasing shit but even they will released 2 AAA games: Rage 2 and the new Wolfenstein.

All kind of shares (NASDAQ, DAX30, Bitcoin) are down because there is a financial crisis combined with Trump's trade war. Also there is a recession cycle and 2018 is exactly 10 years from 2008.

Claiming that we are dealing with a AAA game companies crash is retarded.
 

Mark Richard

Arcane
Joined
Mar 14, 2016
Messages
1,192
I think the biggest blow by far is the government scrutiny of loot boxes. Publishers put all their eggs in one basket for obscene short term profit, becoming dependent on child gambling only to wake up one day and be told half their revenue is in jeopardy. The possessive games as a service model doesn't help either. These games want to own players for life with daily grinding and achievements, but pesky mortal constraints severely limit the number of these games we can play. Somebody has to get edged out, and at the increasing rate of commitment and yearly sequels, publishers will end up competing against other games in their own library to diminishing returns.
 

Big Wrangle

Guest
All those people probably muttered to themselves "Who is this dude?" when receiving the notifications. :smug:
 

Dexter

Arcane
Joined
Mar 31, 2011
Messages
15,655
I think the biggest blow by far is the government scrutiny of loot boxes. Publishers put all their eggs in one basket for obscene short term profit, becoming dependent on child gambling only to wake up one day and be told half their revenue is in jeopardy. The possessive games as a service model doesn't help either. These games want to own players for life with daily grinding and achievements, but pesky mortal constraints severely limit the number of these games we can play. Somebody has to get edged out, and at the increasing rate of commitment and yearly sequels, publishers will end up competing against other games in their own library to diminishing returns.
And lot of the late fads like PUBG and Fortnite also put a lot of eggs into the "China" basket, only to potentially get bitchslapped by the Chinese government soon enough: https://nichegamer.com/2018/12/13/c...allegedly-bans-nine-games-including-fortnite/
Chinese Video Game Ethics Panel Allegedly Bans Nine Games, Including Fortnite
by Ryan Pearson | @rppokepower
on December 13, 2018 at 9:30 AM, EST

china-censor-12-13-18-1.jpg


The Chinese government have opened the Online Games Ethics Committee; which has wasted no time in banning nine games and recommending censorship of eleven others.

During the time Monster Hunter World had been banned in China, it was revealed via The Star and Financial Times that China’s media regulator The State Administration of Radio and Television (SART) had been suffering from “bureaucratic infighting”.

No licenses for video games had been issued since March 28th, and licensing officially stopped in April while they were restructuring. China has had concerns with increased numbers of young people playing video games and using the internet, even to the point of “boot camps” that have resulted in the death of several teens sent to them.

In addition to the reduction of licenses granted, the Ministry of Education recommended reducing the number of games approved to combat myopia to other governmental departments. Both of the above were cited by some as the cause of China’s tech giant Tencent’s whopping loss of $20 billion loss in market value.

Initially the state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) reported on December 7th that twenty games had been looked at by the Online Games Ethics Committee. This was also the first time the department’s existence had become public knowledge. Nine games were rejected outright while the remaining eleven requested certain content be adjusted.

At the time, the games titles were not revealed. However users on Chinese gaming forum NGA claimed to know which ones they were, and a thread on Reddit’s Gaming subreddit posted a translation. The twenty games, their outcome, and the reason why can be found below:
0JErhlg.jpg


Several titles are currently still playable in China, such as Fortnite and PlayerUnknown’s Battleground. An update to the post does claim that Blizzard took to Weibo (effectively China’s equivalent to Twitter) denying they had received notice for any action to be taken. The post was later deleted, possibly not to draw attention to the rumors themselves.

The user who started the thread – ZeroWolfe547 – attempts to explain the reasoning behind some of the causes to the bans and censorship.

They begin by stating how owning, selling, creating, or distributing porn in China is illegal; to the point the government have rolled out financial rewards for whistle-blowing. The user does express confusion how games like Overwatch seemed to have not had that as a reason for changes, considering the designs of characters like Widowmaker.

ZeroWolfe547 continues theorizing:

“I’m guessing the whole “rewarding by rank” is a problem because it suggests class divisions, rather than purely rewarding based on merit? Communist ideology pops up in places even if the country isn’t exactly on that path anymore.
Correct conceptions of history have seen renewed attention recently as well. Nominally it’s supposed to mean Marxist historical materialism, but in colloquial use, it can refer to misrepresentation of history as well.

The official Communist Party version of Chinese history is written into Chinese law as part of the PRC’s constitution. Fantastical depictions of historical figures can be problematic, as is time travel, and unflattering depictions of revolutionary leaders is downright illegal.”


The latter is sure to cause issues for Kingdom Hearts 3, as the Chinese government have banned Winnie the Pooh, after images comparing president Xi Jinping to Winnie the Pooh surfaced online.

ZeroWolfe547 finishes their theories, but not without some confusion themselves:

“Inharmonious chat” refers to the perceived lack of effort by publishers to combat toxicity, vulgarity, and politically sensitive speech in chats. In China usually games implement lists of censored phrases that are constantly updated to adhere to this requirement, and they are usually very aggressive and would much rather over do it than let anything slip.
I’m not sure what “game visuals promote incorrect values” would refer to, I can’t really think of anything unique to Overwatch that goes in that direction.”


In other news, China has began enforcing the need for an ID when playing games to prevent children for playing too long. Business Insider reports Tencent has used facial recognition technology to compare the user’s face to the country’s national citizen database.

Business Insider also reports that kids are trying to beat facial recognition software with photos of sleeping relatives, or even imitating them on customer support lines.
 

Telengard

Arcane
Joined
Nov 27, 2011
Messages
1,621
Location
The end of every place
Spectacle requested a citation. If you want solid numbers, you'll have to become an investor. But for the layperson, you can get a decent, basic overview by simply going to one of the games database websites and sorting by year. Or better but requiring more work, you can go the old reporter route and pick a few companies and follow their release numbers through the years, like EA as they go from 100 a year to a couple dozen, and now creeping back up.

EDIT: I should also add by way of background, the only reason I used to come to RPGCodex back when was this place used to have a list of indie games, back before the online platforms started releasing them, and I happen to be someone who actually purposefully sought out indie games.
 
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KeighnMcDeath

RPG Codex Boomer
Joined
Nov 23, 2016
Messages
13,008
Blade and soul... swore I heard of that before.

I guess the Chinese are just boning for rich fat chink men.

blade_and_soul_640_12.jpg

Not much wrong with this except they’re too covered up and not gyrating to music.


Wtf is this game really about?
 

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