Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Fairfax]

Fig's annual report has been released.

As expected, the report doesn't say how many copies the game sold, only Fig's revenue from it:

In theory, this would mean PoE2's revenue by September 30 was $3,101,392 (before Valve's cut). Assuming no revenue was shared with other companies before Fig's cut, that would translate to:

• 68,920 copies sold at an average price of $45
• 77,535 at $40
• 88,611 at $35
• 103,380 at $30
• 124,056 at $25

However, this doesn't line up with the leaked achievement data and backer copies, which confirms my suspicion that DRIL's deal with Versus Evil and/or Obsidian shafted Fig and investors:

Examples in these things can also really fuck over the issuer. If the actual mechanism is that Fig gets whatever DRIL decides to give them, then they really shouldn't have included those models that suggest otherwise. I've seen hedge and private equity funds get in trouble for exactly this kind of thing with the SEC. The fact that Dark Rock and Fig have a lot of overlap in their ownership also wouldn't help in the event of litigation.

It's not what DRIL decides to give them (if they follow the agreement). Here's how it works:

1. PoE2 makes $1000 from new copies on Steam.
2. Steam takes $300, DRIL gets $700.
3. Fig takes 16.1% of DRIL's $700 = $112.7.
4. Fig shares 85% of that with investors (could be higher/lower at the board's discretion).

However, if DRIL has an arrangement with another company, Fig could be taking 16.1% of a smaller amount than expected.

Example: if Versus Evil takes 10% after distributions fees, DRIL makes $630 instead of $700. Now, instead of making $112.7, Fig makes $101.43.

DRIL could preserve Fig's revenue by paying VE after Fig's cut. However, by sharing the revenue with VE before that step, DRIL and VE can have more flexibility (and money) with their arrangement. They could keep more money between themselves by giving VE a bigger cut, even if that money goes back to DRIL in another way. For instance: they may have signed a deal where VE pays for the VO and console ports in exchange for a bigger cut. DRIL would technically make less money from each new copy, but they could be saving money in the process, since they were originally going to pay for that stuff themselves.

 

[Major_Blackhart]

So how long before someone decides this is SEC worthy of an investigation?

 

[fantadomat]

So how long before someone decides this is SEC worthy of an investigation?

Nothing to investigate,the game flopped ether way.

 

[AwesomeButton]

Basically, what we have been assuming has been indirectly confirmed - DRIL has been selling game keys under Fig's counter so to speak.

 

[FreeKaner]

Creative accounting is just the kind of thing Feargus would excel at.

 

[Fairfax]

Creative accounting is just the kind of thing Feargus would excel at.

He's not even good at it:

I don't know, but my pragmatic guess is that maybe Take2 wouldn't mind Feargus and his cost padding out of the picture (Feargus, at the height of stupidity, forgot to remove it in his budget he sent to them - when asked, I told them I wasn't surprised, and they should expect him to inflate costs like that, but that's why you have to watch him very, very carefully when he submits a budget - he tried to fuck over Paradox, too, because he felt entitled to).

The game was rigged from the start:

The offering circular mentions that DRIL may share revenue with co-publishers, and that such arrangements would reduce Fig's revenue:

The terms of the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement differ from the terms of certain other license agreements between Fig and developers in that, under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement, Fig’s revenue share is equal to a percentage of the revenue DRIL receives, and DRIL retains the ability to enter into separate license agreements with other co-publishers, which could reduce the revenues DRIL receives and thereby indirectly reduce Fig’s revenue share.

Under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement, Fig’s revenue share is equal to a percentage of the revenue DRIL receives, and DRIL retains the ability to enter into separate license agreements with other co-publishers. As a result, if DRIL were to take steps on its own that resulted in it receiving lower game revenues, for example by entering into one or more additional co-publishing arrangements with third parties under which DRIL incurred obligations that were greater than any additional revenue earned, then Fig’s revenue share from Pillars of Eternity II would indirectly be reduced. Although Fig believes that the arrangement under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement will not adversely affect Fig’s revenue share from Pillars of Eternity II, because Fig does not expect DRIL to take steps that might reduce DRIL’s revenues from Pillars of Eternity II, including by entering into one or more additional co-publishing arrangements with third parties, there can be no assurance that, under the arrangement, DRIL’s game revenues will not go down and Fig’s revenue share thereby indirectly be reduced.

It also explicitly says there's no guarantee that DRIL won't underpay Fig, and that Fig won't try to check the books:

Under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement, DRIL will collect most or all of the receipts from distributors from the sale of Pillars of Eternity II, net of distributor fees, and then allocate such receipts among itself, Fig and any third-party co-publisher(s) that DRIL has engaged to publish Pillars of Eternity II. There can be no assurance that the arrangement will not lead to nonpayment or underpayment to Fig of its Pillars of Eternity II revenue share. Under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement, DRIL is required to maintain, and to cause Obsidian to maintain, books and records reasonably sufficient to permit verification of its payments of receipts to Fig, and Fig may examine these books and records. However, in the ordinary course of the business relationship under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement, DRIL’s collections and payments of receipts will not be subjected to audits or other third-party verification efforts that are conducted for Fig’s benefit. In addition, although DRIL may have audit rights with some of the distributors from which it will receive receipts from sales of Pillars of Eternity II, disputes with distributors regarding their payments could harm relationships with the distributor and could be costly and time-consuming to pursue. As a result, it may not be commercially feasible for DRIL to verify payments made to it by distributors.

So what's Fig's protection against that?

DRIL will deliver to Fig 5,000 valid Steam game keys for Pillars of Eternity II (the “Fig Keys”) on the PC Licensed Platforms (or such other keys format as mutually agreed) no later than 14 days from the commercial launch of Pillars of Eternity II. The Fig Keys will be solely owned by Fig and will be used for the sale of Pillars of Eternity II by Fig on Fig.co, or by any distributors that Fig has engaged to distribute Pillars of Eternity II and that DRIL has pre-approved. The price offered for purchase of the Fig Keys will not at any point in time be less than the then current price of Pillars of Eternity II on Steam. In the event that DRIL underpays the amounts owed to Fig under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement, Fig shall have full rights and license to sell, at Fig’s sole discretion, an amount of Fig Keys through any distributor, and retain 100% of the sales receipts of those sales sufficient to offset any underpaid amount.

 

[Mustawd]

He's not even good at it:

They have for sure hired a firm to do their accounting for them for Fig.

Fairfax, don’t forget that there also management fees.

What really concerns me is that none of these filings are audited. There are certain disclosures that auditors would insist on that may not be disclosed here.

For example, I have no confidence that the 85% dividend rate is accurate. At all. There could be some adjustments to that rate, and maybe they have not disclosed it.

 

[Father Foreskin]

Thankfully no game has been successful on fig and never will be. The best scenario is that one of the "investors" gets angry and rapes Fargo with a crowbar.

 

[OneCityGal]

That cute village builder with blocky graphics was pretty successful.

 

[user]

Harsh, but I wouldn't care much if Sawyer's mmo-ish system died tbh...

 

[CyberWhale]

Any changes after TB mode released?

 

[LESS T_T]

I see no significant changes on visible stats

• Concurrent players: small bump (+600~800) after the update.
  
• Reviews: insignificant (+10) increase of positive reviews than usual.

I don't think the update will have immediate effect on sales anyway, deeper discounts will.

Speaking of, there's Lunar New Year sale going on (Deadfire doing the same 34% discount from last Fall) so let's do this again. Current top global sellers with RPG tags: https://store.steampowered.com/search/?tags=122&os=win&filter=globaltopsellers

#01 Witcher 3 GOTY
#02 Monster Hunter
#03 AC: Odyssey
#04 Dark Souls 3 Deluxe
#07 D:OS 2
#08 Skyrim SE
#10 Dark Souls 3
#11 Kingdom Come Collection
#13 Nioh
#17 Dark Souls Remastered
#20 AC: Origins
#21 Witcher 3
#22 Kingdom Come
#25 古剑奇谭三(Gujian3)
#26 Fallout 4 GOTY
#27 Valkyria Chronicles 4
#29 Vampyr
#30 太吾绘卷 The Scroll Of Taiwu
#31 Thronebreaker
#32 Kingdom Come Bastards
#38 D:OS 2 Eternal Edition
#40 Ni No Kuni 2
#41 Yakuza 0
#43 Darkest Dungeon Ancestral Edition
#44 Dark Souls 3 Season Pass
#46 Yakuza Kiwami
#49 Fallout 4
#50 Shadow of War Definitive Edition
#51 Grim Dawn
#52 Dark Souls 2 SotFS
#56 Undertale
#57 Mutant Year Zero
#62 D:OS EE
#65 Kenshi
#67 Skyrim VR
#70 Fallout NV Ultimate
#73 Tales of Berseria
#74 Darkest Dungeon
#75 South Park: The Fractured But Whole
#77 Nier Automata
#81 Fallout 4 VR
#82 South Park Bundle
#83 Dragon's Dogma
#84 Call Of Cthulhu
#86 Battletech
#95 Pillars of Eternity 2
#105 Pathfinder Kingmaker

At least it wins Kingmaker this time! It should be well out of top 100 in general top sellers.

 

[Nano]

^ y i k e s

 

[fantadomat]

It looks like fake newz to me.

 

[Heinrich]

It looks like fake newz to me.

What do you mean fake news? You can just click on the link you know? It's in the eighties for RPGs right now.

 

[Funposter]

Pathfinder now appearing at #66 for me, above Deadfire.

 

[Flou]

It did sell well on GOG's recent sales, once again though. I think it is on page 24 or 25 on their all time bestseller list.

 

[LESS T_T]

So after 5.0 update, it's on discount (-34%) now. Let's check out... it's currently 4th page of global top sellers list on Steam.

Some of RPGs above it, in order:

• NWN:EE (-80% off)
• D:OS 2 (no discount)
• F:NV (-50%)
• Skyrim (no discount)
• Druidstone (-5%, new release)

 

[BEvers]

Outnumbered and outclassed:

 

[Infinitron]

BEvers Now if only we had somebody to review Kingmaker for us.

 

[Safav Hamon]

I nominate PorkyThePaladin

 

[Lacrymas]

BEvers Now if only we had somebody to review Kingmaker for us.

Still not having played it, but going from what I've read, here's my very accurate review - "It's Baldur's Gate, but Pathfinder. Also kingdom management"

 

[pomenitul]

'Also more trash mobs. And shitty ESL writing. And kiddy art. But nostalgia conquers all.'

 

[RaptorRex888]

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

BEvers Now if only we had somebody to review Kingmaker for us.

Shouldn't we at least wait until it's out of beta?