Bloodbowl Season 3

So if you roll the dice 100 times there is a 7% chance that it will happen and the dice are rolled more than 100 times a match. Seems reasonable to me. There has been talk about this on the Cyanide forums as well and the end result is no it isn't bugged but I don't know how accurate that is. Also note that a particular player may have the loner skill which can negate a reroll in which case it looks like you have rolled 4 1's but you have only rolled 2 1's.

Double skulls always stand out in your mind because of the negative effect it has whereas double sixes do not and yet I am sure you have rolled plenty of double 6s.

 

We played our game. It looks like the replay is bugged; a desync occurred. I picked up the ball on turn one and passed it and scored on turn two, hence me standing around for two minutes doing nothing. The game then crashes since a kickoff should have happened at that point but obviously did not. As soon as he gives his first order, it crashed.

The original game we played was 3-0 in my favor, with my opponent abandoning about the middle of the 2nd half. Might have been the cause of the desync later in the match, but the quality of the replay has nothing to do with the actual result of the game.

 

Mantiis is correct. The "hmm, something is wrong with the dice"-thing is very well-known from real Blood Bowl too, where it obviously isn't a software-bug. The reason is that BB is a very rare kind; an extremely tactical turn-based game in which everything depends on positioning, and then random dice thrown in to decide just as much.

It likes playing chess where your brilliantly thought out plan can be crushed a random die roll.

So when that random die roll crushes you, it tends to overshadow all other instances of the same type of roll.

There's a scientific word for it. In Danish, it's called "focus-production" or somesuch, not sure how to translate it. It's the same as when you spend your whole day talking about, for instance, China, and then when you go home and watch the telly, you notice every single instance of something China-related (on the news, in a show or whatever), and you think "gee, an unusual amount of China on TV tonight" when in reality, it's just that you notice that particular thing a lot more

 

I suggest Ookla supplies his replay file - maybe it won't be bugged the same way.

BTW, Mantiis, do we have some rules about abandoning/conceding matches in the league?

 

exmit I hope you won't fail me - I expect dendrophialiac heads, lungs and other bodyparts flying all over the pitch, dangerous injuries and fatal wounds, so that they will be able to field not more than half of their team against The Decliners.
You hear me, bro potato?! : x

 

Mate, it's not 7%, it 0,07%. The result of (1/6)^4 is 0,000771604... Multiplied by 100 to give it in percentage, 0,077%. That's less than 1 every 1000 2 dice blocks. Of course, this is valid only for a very large number of 2 dice blocks.

A two dice block giving double skulls is a rare event too, with 2,7% chances, but considering the number of two dice blocks that happen in a match, it's ocurrency seems normal to me.

You can see this by other angle too, if you consider that number of re-rolls available in a match, between 4 and 8, the chance of a double skull is 2,7% also. It should happen only about 3 times in a hundred, again, valid only for a very large number of re-rolls.

Anyway, I don't really know. You might be right and the thing might be just fine.

 

The funny thing about random number generation is that there's no guarantee that a 1/36 result won't happen twice in a row. Also, if we got double skulls once already, the chance of getting another is not 1/36 x 1/36 (~= 0.08%), but a much higher 1/36 (~= 2.8%) - conditional probability, was it called?

 

Ah, Blood Bowl and the superstitions it causes us to pick up.

I for one won't immediately reroll a dice result - I'll always wait a couple of seconds before clicking for the new roll.

 

If I remember correctly, computer RNGs take their results from last numbers of fractions of miliseconds from the CPU clock, so I don't think any delay, or lack of it, makes any difference.

Nuffle on the other hand... is fickle.

 

I don't think it makes a difference either, but it does seem to. That's why it's a superstition.

 

Grunker vs. Grotsnik is finished, and in the style of two nemesises doing battle, it was one hell of a game. We both agreed afterwards that it was one of the most bizarre and entertaining matches we've ever played. Filled with nufflish luck, and horribad play from one of the players (without mentioning names, it's me), it was true Blood Bowl glory.

I encourage people to wait for the extrasuperspecial write-up + replay that will be up soon... If any Blood Bowl match with me and Grotsnik is worth watching, it's this one

 

What's also wrong with playing BB on the PC is that you can't use your special dice rituals. Like threatening their makers with rape.

 

Well, I do that.

 

Oh yeah! Why didn't I think of that?

 

Oh, why must you hate me so?

@Exmit
How is it with a match on Saturday night? Every time I try to catch you on Steam I miss you for about an hour or so.

 

It's a a mix of faggy elves team and the fact you're my next foe - it's nothing personal. I love you bro (no homo).

 

You (or someone) need to record every instance and do an actual statistical analysis. Otherwise, as Mantiis said, a typical person notices the double skulls a LOT more than any other result, so observer bias is very inherent in this analysis. Or it could be just coincidence, as the sample size large enough to justify a 0.077& chance imo.

 

Well, having gotten a double skull result, it's 1/36 chance of rerolling it to another double skull. These things happen.

 

Can't wait to see it. Hope You upload the replay soon. Please?

 

Write-up will probably be up tonight around 2AM GMT+1. Replay will follow a little later (I'm not at home right now, but maybe Grotsnik kan upload it after I upload the write-up tonight)

 

Thanks for not mentioning THE mistake, Mico. Play-Offs are totally out of reach though, I guess. But I definitely feel like I'm already improving thanks to your advice. Just beat Chaos 2-0 with my Auld World Ogres. Only 2 snotlings died! Would have been one if I wouldn't have thrown the other one. Well, maybe it was just because he had 0 players with block.
In other News: Fouling minotaurs with snotlings =

 

Don't give up just yet. Ogre teams improve a lot with experience. Even one Ogre with Break Tackle can make a world of a difference for the whole team - as can an AG4 Snotling (landing successfully 8 of 9 times, assuming there's a re-roll available).

You should probably expect to lose one Snotling per match on average. Unless it's a one with double skills / stat increases (MV, AG), it doesn't really matter.

 

Did the 2nd round already start or what?

 

Not yet.