I don't doubt there's money to be made in mobile gaming, and I also suspect that older developers who started out on C64 or similar, and who have more of a connection to simple arcade games, would find it more enticing. But.....
...I can't help but notice that many of the people who leap at it seem to just blindly accept that it is universally lucrative, without any thinking any further than 'this is what's hot right now'. No serious industry analysis. No breakdown of how startups compare in that industry compared to elsewhere. No real sense of which market segments are underserved, or what a saturated market would look like.
This guy was better than most - at least he had a target market in mind. Even then, why that market? What are the spending patterns in mobile phone games for teenage girls v other markets? What's the specific market - 'teenage girls' by itself is just an age/gender category (it seems like he's using it as a stand-in for 'casual, fickle/fashion-driven' gamers, in which case he might have realised the downside before wasting his money/time if he had spelt it out)?
Most importantly, there never seems to be any consideration of what's your competitive advantage - what can you do, that your competitors can't, that makes you more attractive to customers? Unless it's purely a hobby and you don't care about remuneration, that should be the first question for any startup - but you just don't ever seem to hear it amongst mobile phone game developers. For the big companies, it might be an easy question to answer - they can produce more products, at lower costs, with better market research and broader distribution, they have less qualms about blatantly copying others, and they have greater funds and legal expertise that enables them to abuse IP laws (Zynga's favourite ploy being to copy a moderately successful game, make it marginally more user-friendly, and then sue the original creator for breaching their IP, stretching the case out until the original creator settles because they can't afford the legal fees). But an indie developer had better have a rock solid idea of what it is that will let him/her compete against companies like that.
The 'competitors can't' aspect is important. Let's say that this guy's game did really well (by indie standards), and had a big start - what would have happened then? Zynga would have rushed out 3-4 clones within a month, as would numerous other big players. Those clones might even have slightly better mechanics, and they'll definitely be more accessible and their distribution will be so superior that very soon anyone looking at the original game will assume that it is the b-grade copy.
If they asked themselves about competitive advantage, it would also lead them to consider whether there is really a market opening for them, as opposed to just assuming that there must be a customer base out there because 'this is the big thing right now'. Firstly, customers rarely know or care whether something is 'hot' within your industry. Secondly, if it's the 'big thing' right now, it's probably inundated with startups doing exactly what you're doing - an indie startup should be searching for the 'unfashionable thing that nobody has heard of, but has merit that outstrips its reputation'. That's where you're going to find untapped markets. Thirdly, just because a platform, or a general industry, is selling well (and even assuming that the high demand isn't being swamped by even higher supply), that doesn't mean that every section of that industry is doing well.
You get the same thing happening with the obsession over Silicon Valley startups. Admittedly, those guys at least will usually have some idea of what they can do that their competitors can't - they aren't slaving away making things that Zynga can cheaply imitate and outmarket. But there's this incredible amount of hype, really talented and intelligent people with valuable qualifications, working insane hours, and despite all the finance going to it, these startup entrepeneurs are typically working for free or for minimal salaries, as they're using all the investment capital to keep their unviable company ticking over for another few months...and they're doing it over and over again....And despite all that, the success rate for Silicon Valley startups is no better than the average for startups across all industries (i.e. terrible, with the overwhelming majority ending in bankruptcy). Again - these are people with talent and expertise of real economic value; for them to be doing no better than your average new small business, the market must be downright terrible.
But they just keep heading on blindly, like moths to a flame (where those moths are flying over a whole bunch of cushy moth holiday resorts that they could be hanging out at instead of burning themselves alive).
Edit: marketing often gets a bad rap, usually because it's conflated with advertising, but I think game developers could actually do with a greater market focus - just a greater emphasis on saying 'who are we selling to, and why would they buy from us'.
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