How Much Will They Make!

[Azeot]

Nah, looks like they won't reach 2 mil. Maybe if they are lucky the last days will get them to the mod support stretch goal, but I doubt any more.

 

[Fairfax]

Yeah, I'm not sure it'll even have a significant push in the last 3 days.

 

[Nekot-The-Brave]

They will definitely beat the Bard's Tale IV, that pleb.

 

[Sjukob]

Well , I think that the most important goals are achievedand , I don't worry about the amount of cash anymore . Although it would be nice to have mod support and I would rather see it's position swapped with hall of echoes .

 

[weresheeple]

Yeah, especially if the hall of eachoes stretch goal ends up similar to the homestead at the end of time stretchgoal the last time. Mod support and dungeon master mode would be much preferrable (assuming the mod tools will be a lot more accessible than the previous ones).

 

[Kirkpatrick]

$1,766,738 at this moment.

I think they'll make it all the way to $2,000,000. There's at least 10k more from paypal, 20k from codex and watch and it really going strong at the end. 37k today, and 43 hours more to go.

ed: +$2,000 in 17 minutes.

 

[Nekot-The-Brave]

Yeah, I'm not sure it'll even have a significant push in the last 3 days.

You couldn't have been any more wrong.

 

[Arkeus]

Seems like a majority of the codex voted right

 

[Mustawd]

Nah, looks like they won't reach 2 mil. Maybe if they are lucky the last days will get them to the mod support stretch goal, but I doubt any more.

 

[Fairfax]

You couldn't have been any more wrong.

Wasn't counting on MCA in the end, he did have an easily verifiable and significant effect
Still, the last 3 days are at ~15% of total funding, which is very low compared to other KS CRPGs, while the first 3 are ~45%. It was a bigger push than recent campaigns like Bard's Tale and Shadowrun HK, but not as significant (proportionately) as the first ones.

My actual prediction was correct btw:

I hope it does, but it'll depend on the new stretch goals and tiers. Right now it's trending towards 1.8-2.1 million, but it could do better with the right moves. The problem is that the effects of stretch goals are still a big question mark.

 

[Mustawd]

Slightly off topic, but I wonder if there's any off-hand analysis that shows how many original sales major kickstarters have had on top of their KS donations?

Something like a Original Sales to Donations ratio or something.

 

[Zarniwoop]

Slightly off topic, but I wonder if there's any off-hand analysis that shows how many original sales major kickstarters have had on top of their KS donations?

Something like a Original Sales to Donations ratio or something.

Last I heard Steam doesn't ever release sales figures so at least that component will be a mystery.

 

[Infinitron]

Last I heard Steam doesn't ever release sales figures so at least that component will be a mystery.

Oh wow. Google "Steamspy", dude.

 

[Xzylvador]

My actual prediction was correct btw:
"I hope it does, but it'll depend on the new stretch goals and tiers. Right now it's trending towards 1.8-2.1 million, but it could do better with the right moves. The problem is that the effects of stretch goals are still a big question mark."

Weeeellll.... not really that correct. MCA has to be pretty much the best move a RPG dev could make, yet it was 'only' sufficient to reach your initial prediction; not better.
That said, I loved your number work. Very interesting analysis and a great job too!

A question, if I may: Do you feel Larian correctly 'guessed' how much money the KS could/would land? They added stretch goals for up to 2 million and made that amount, but not much more.
Does that mean new potential backers stop backing when the goals have been met, despite the game being cheaper than when it's released? Does it decrease chances of backers from increasing their pledge, just for better rewards instead of 'a bigger game'?
Would Larian have raised more if they'd immediately asked for more, or added higher tiers right out of the gate?
Or do devs just keep adding new stretch goals to prevent any such effect? Haven't really been following a lot of kickstarters... but your numbers tickled my curiosity.

 

[Zarniwoop]

Oh wow. Google "Steamspy", dude.

That site that tells you how many games you have in your library? Yeah I've used it before.

Edit: Nope, this one is "your one stop shop for speculative data". Yes that totally contradicts what I've been saying.

Steam. Does. Not. Release. Official. Data.

 

[Infinitron]

That site that tells you how many games you have in your library? Yeah I've used it before.

No, that's not what it does. You need to pay more attention, we've had a thread tracking RPG sales numbers on Steam for quite a while now: http://www.rpgcodex.net/forums/index.php?threads/the-sales-of-incline.98915/

Edit: Nope, this one is "your one stop shop for speculative data". Yes that totally contradicts what I've been saying.

Steam. Does. Not. Release. Official. Data.

That's not the only thing you said!

 

[Fairfax]

Weeeellll.... not really that correct. MCA has to be pretty much the best move a RPG dev could make, yet it was 'only' sufficient to reach your initial prediction; not better.
That said, I loved your number work. Very interesting analysis and a great job too!

Thanks. MCA was added regardless of funding and it still had a significant increase, which is very interesting and unusual, but I guess MCA's situation and notoriety are already unusual in the first place. Also, the "right moves" I meant back then were the new tiers, new rewards, add-ons, etc. They did include most of the stuff I suggested, and I'm pretty sure it helped.

Not saying they followed my advice, mind you. Pretty sure a lot of other people asked for that stuff, but thanks to whoever they listened to, they did make a lot of changes I suggested in my analysis:

- At least 2 new tiers between $60 and $80.
- 1 tier between $30 and $50, if possible.
- Digital soundtrack for every pledge of $50 or more.
- Free copies of the first game in some of these tiers.
- A new $90 tier.
- Multiple tier between $200 and $700 to replace the sold out ones as I mentioned.
- Extensive mod tool stretch goal.

A question, if I may: Do you feel Larian correctly 'guessed' how much money the KS could/would land? They added stretch goals for up to 2 million and made that amount, but not much more.

Swen is a guy that's always thinking ahead and is pretty ambitious, and I think he had almost everything in mind, including the $2 milliion. The romance stuff became the 1.85 million stretch goal, and Bubbles had already told us about it in his report from when he visited Larian. That was before the KS campaign IIRC. DM mode is the only one that stands out to me as something that might've been considered later.

Does that mean new potential backers stop backing when the goals have been met, despite the game being cheaper than when it's released? Does it decrease chances of backers from increasing their pledge, just for better rewards instead of 'a bigger game'?

I don't think so, mostly because the EE is coming next month and a lot of people will be playing/finishing the game for the first time. A lot of the players will enjoy the game and look for PayPal pledges to back the sequel.
As for increasing pledges, sometimes it's not possible to purchase some of them after the campaign is over. That'll be up to Larian, but I'm pretty sure the add-ons and most digital tiers without in-game awards should be available for a long time.

They could add a couple of new stretch goals, but it's not clear whether that's still a possibility or not. During yesterday's stream one of the guys at Larian said they were considering new goals if they made $2 million, but shortly after that Swen himself read the same question and said "no". It might be a secret/unconfirmed possibility like the romance stuff, but we don't know yet.

I do think it'll eventually make at least $2.3-2.4 million with PayPal depending on the success of the EE. For instance, TToN has earned ~$775k through post-campaign paypal pledges, but then again, that campaign ended more than 2 years ago, while D:OS2 will only have a year or so.

Would Larian have raised more if they'd immediately asked for more, or added higher tiers right out of the gate?

That's still a big question mark. Do campaigns make more money if they ask for more in the first place? Is there a soft cap on how much you can make if you ask for too little? I don't believe there is a clear answer. Bloodstained asked for $500k and earned 11 times that.
Bard's Tale IV went for $1.250 million and made $1.5. If it didn't harm, it surely didn't help either. That game had multiple reasons for its low funding IMO, which is why the initial goal is not enough to explain these things.

Or do devs just keep adding new stretch goals to prevent any such effect? Haven't really been following a lot of kickstarters... but your numbers tickled my curiosity.

I do get the impression some devs (very few) use an artificial initial goal that wouldn't be enough to fund the game because they're sure it'll make more. Or sometimes it's an honest mistake. In hindsight, we know PoE and WL2 couldn't have been made with their KS funds alone and both studios had to spend some of their own cash. InXile had to spend another $3 million on top of the game's KS funds, for example.

 

[Xzylvador]

Well, that was a quick and very clear reply. Thanks for that!
A lot of food for thought

DM mode is the only one that stands out to me as something that might've been considered later.

I still somewhat doubt it'll be in (at launch), despite the goal being reached. Much as I respect Larian, they didn't really deliver everything that was promised for D:OS either.

 

[Mustawd]

Well, that was a quick and very clear reply. Thanks for that!
A lot of food for thought


I still somewhat doubt it'll be in (at launch), despite the goal being reached. Much as I respect Larian, they didn't really deliver everything that was promised for D:OS either.

Somewhat doubtful as well. GM mode seems to imply modding/world creating tools, which they had a hard time perfecting last time. Yes, even though modding tools are also a stretch goal.

If you are a pessimistic sort then you might expect Larian to roll out a hard-to-use and/or simplified GM mode with basic modding tools. I mean the scope of things they're trying to do is pretty big. Much bigger than what it seems they originally had announced.

If I would guess, I think that Larian might throw more money into D: OS 2 to ensure they can deliver this time.

 

[Immortal]

Somewhat doubtful as well. GM mode seems to imply modding/world creating tools, which they had a hard time perfecting last time. Yes, even though modding tools are also a stretch goal.

If you are a pessimistic sort then you might expect Larian to roll out a hard-to-use and/or simplified GM mode with basic modding tools. I mean the scope of things they're trying to do is pretty big. Much bigger than what it seems they originally had announced.

If I would guess, I think that Larian might throw more money into D: OS 2 to ensure they can deliver this time.

Don't forget they have a finished engine to start from this time around.

 

[a Goat]

Bloodstained asked for $500k and earned 11 times that.

That's because it hit demographic that was left untouched for years.

 

[Fairfax]

Well, that was a quick and very clear reply. Thanks for that!
A lot of food for thought


I still somewhat doubt it'll be in (at launch), despite the goal being reached. Much as I respect Larian, they didn't really deliver everything that was promised for D:OS either.

I'm skeptical myself, but Larian has a larger team, more multiplayer stuff in the game already, and funds of their own (the KS is just part of the funding, it doesn't cover everything), so we'll see. I think they can pull it off, but they don't have a lot of time.

That's because it hit demographic that was left untouched for years.

It wasn't just that. They did a lot of things right, it was the best KS campaign I've ever seen, in every aspect.

I wrote an analysis for Bloodstained too.