[LP CYOA] 傳

Well there's also a bit of a concerted effort to avoid trying to solve the case. I'm frankly surprised how many people went with B given how many people found Fu Xia so overwhelmingly suspicious during the Duck Testimony update as we kept digging up more and more reasons to find him dodgy and discovered he could actually have been at every single crime scene. But now these people are now all trying to avoid interrogating Fu Xia to settle the case properly. Nevill was the one who called Fu Xia Theseus but now he's the one doing his best to avoid having Fu Xia named as our suspect and interrogated.

B is the nuclear option where you wreck the entire trial by having the garrison bust out Jiang Zheng by force.

C is the option where you solve it peacefully by submitting Fu Xia as our suspect, and I think we all agree that Fu Xia is the prime suspect right now.

 

Maybe because it's one thing to question a dude and it's quite another to name him the scapegoat and bring down the torture and questioning because of a suspicion. We still have absolutely zero actual, solid, concrete evidence against him. Just our own hunches. As things stand, I'd rather we just bail Jiang Zheng with the commander and his three thousand soldiers (who the fuck is going to stop us?) and let him pursue the real perp. If it happens to be Fu Xia, then Jiang Zheng can pin him on his own.

Are we at least getting Kinky BDSM Time with her?

 

Baltika9, Fu Xia is the prime suspect. If we want to solve the trial, now is the time to name him and see what comes out of it.

Aside from that, if we do vote B, we are hurting Shun bro here. We make both the constables and the military look like "fuck you I do what I want" types who ignore due process and Shun, who created the constables as part of his initiative to be a wise and just ruler is also going to take a rep beating for this. And this is aside from the possibility of a war with the bandit kingdom breaking out which can also weaken borders and lead to other shit.

A bear named spigot, would you be willing to vote C?

 

Suspect =/= criminal. Bringing the dude in for a public Youxia Interrogation on hucnhes alone is kinda dumb from our standpoint. Bail the chief and let the grown ups handle that. The fallout will be handled when the real criminals are found. And if the Bandit Kingdom wants to try shit, Shunbro can always drop us a message.

 

Well, if this was intended to play out as a detective novel, there is no one other than Fu Xia who could have done it. It's never mysterious person X, and now that we've found Xiaofang, we ran out of suspects. The question at this point is if we can prove it or not. If we don't, there goes chief Zheng. Maybe it is what the man wants anyway, if it brings the truth out.

Me, I'd rather try to save the innocent than convict the guilty. We'll see how it goes. Regardless of what happens, I think this is the end of the investigation arc.

I guess no one wants to try their hand at theorycrafting and we are back at the hamsterwheeling stage? Tigranes promised to post his Uber-Analysis, but I don't know if he was serious or not.

 

No, but prime suspect = probably criminal.

No it isn't. We're at the trial. They want to know what happened. Mentioning our prime suspect would be the proper thing to do as a constable.

So you're saying "not my problem" to all the crap that can come from this?

Really? You don't think public perception will already be decided by then? If we go B now and discover Fu Xia did it later, we're only going to make him look like a scapegoat. That's nowhere near the same as finding him guilty right now. And it's not just about "we were right see Jiang Zheng really didn't do it." The damage is already done that we resorted to military strong-arming instead of using the court system which is the expected duty of the imperial constables.

You say that like we won't have any other problems to take care of at the time. Or like the bandit kingdom would be his only problem. Shun also has enemies in the court and this can provide them with exactly the sort of moment of weakness they want.

On a metagame level, that's honestly one of the biggest reasons I think it had to be Fu Xia. This has been a detective story plot so it irks me to pull out at the last moment when, as you say, there is no one else who could have done it.

From a logical/realist perspective I'd have to admit there are uncertainties and unknown possibilities. But from a metagame/narrative perspective, he's really the one.

Except they were already willing to convict Jiang Zheng with that partial evidence (and the Xiaofang + wall evidence suggests it couldn't've been him) while the evidence matches Fu Xia better. So even though we lack conclusive evidence, we still have enough to pin it to Fu Xia over Jiang Zheng. I don't think C can fail to convict Fu Xia even if we don't get any additional information. And if we do resort to that last minute medical investigation of his body to see whether he was hit by Jiang Zheng's sword (Jiang Zheng did cut the perpetrator) and the interrogation we can still glean more evidence about whether Fu Xia really did it.

 

I'll withdraw my vote until the analysis is posted, or otherwise vote to maintain a tie.

I refuse to make decisions of that caliber on metagaming and hunches alone. If anyone can create a plausible theory that would explain the list of treave's questions, particularly 3, 5 and 6, I am willing to listen.

 

Hooookay. Guys, I think I have some new and useful thoughts on how the murder happened. I haven't DISCUSS!'d in quite a while but I think this one bears reading and discussing. Hear me out.

Calling: Absinthe Baltika9 Lambchop19 Zero Credibility Esquilax ERYFKRAD Smashing Axe asxetos Nevill Kz3r0 Tribute Kashmir Slippers Elfberserker Jester Akkudakku Kipeci TOME XenomorphII profreshinal ScubaV The Brazilian Slaughter Azira skaraher Rex Feral archaen Grimgravy Fangshi LWC1996 GreyViper Nevill

First, a compilation of what we know:

Before the Murder:
-Chief Jiang leaves restaurant.
-Restaurant brawl begins during xu hour. Fu Xia is entangled with monks. Xiaofang watches.
-Fu Xia leaves restaurant.
-Xiaofang leaves restaurant.

-The restaurant brawl ends at end of xu hour. Xi Mukang (Jinkong Sect) is present.
-Chief Jiang asks Xiaofang to meet him at the entrance at start of hai hour.
-Chief Jiang speaks with Du Yao from the end of xu hour to receive orders. They discuss the Jinkong Sect and the Manual. Chief Jiang believes Du Yao is not involved in the theft, but did intuit some fact during their conversation. Du Yao asks Chief Jiang to return the next day.
-Chief Jiang leaves Du Yao around middle of hai hour. He spots Xiaofang missing. He "felt that something was wrong", and snuck back into the study.
-(A man matching the description of) Xi Mukang is present at mansion during hai hour.

The Murder:
-Chief Jiang senses and hears a small tussle in the study.
-As Chief Jiang enters, Du Yao screams and falls. MIB is present.
-Chief Jiang draws blood from MIB, who leaps out window and escapes.

-Du Yao is hit by (probably) a kick on the right arm.
-Du Yao is stabbed (by a short sword very much like the constables') below the left collarbone, and is not a killing blow.
-Du Yao is hit by three ice needles on the side of the neck, not on any pressure points, but nevertheless lethal.
-All injuries, and Du Yao's death, occur in the middle of hai hour.

After the Murder:
-Chief Jiang is found by Du Yao's body, his short sword in hand, by Miss Du.
-[Fu Xia says] Xi Mukang (or his lookalike) is spotted running across the courtyard and leaping over a wall during hai hour. [Lady Suien says] the footprints in the courtyard go from Du Yao's study to the wall, and show an above-average qinggong skill man carrying an injury from a struggle with Du Yao.
-After the murder (after middle of the hai hour), homeless man spots Xiaofang arguing and fighting with MIB (man in black), who (probably) hits Xiaofang with ice needles.

-At the very beginning of zi hour, Xiaofang's body is found to have disappeared.
-Few days later, Xiaofang is discovered in a rundown sickhouse, poisoned.

Other Factors:
-Miss Du and Qilin believe Du Yao's murderer did not have the city's best interests at heart.
-Ice needles are Xueguizi technique, contain fast-acting poison, definitely not from the central plains, carrying traces of a cold yin qi, eliciting different reactions from different victims. Practitioners can form needles instantly, but amateurs cannot hold it for long. The needle 'could' freeze poison in liquid form, or dip a formed needle in poison.
-Chief Jiang first says he asked Xiaofang to meet him for orders, but is evasive about what those orders were, does suspect Xiaofang, and when he was not present, immediately suspected something was wrong, which led him somehow to return to Du Yao's study.
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Now for analysis. I am leaving aside any question of certain knowledge. I am leaving aside any question of motivation, unless it is obvious. I am also leaving aside any explanation that pulls too much in from facts that we do not know from the above summary. I am trying as much as possible to work with what we have above then seeing what is likely and unlikely.

Some Things We Can Estimate:
The murder itself happens before Chief Jiang can interfere at all (he says he hears a small tussle, and the moment he enters, Du Yao screams and falls, likely a result of the fast-acting poison needles). The murder may not have been planned, because instead of using such a powerful weapon immediately, the assailant tussles with Du Yao, wounding him with a kick and a stab of the sword. The location of the stab (below left collarbone) suggests that he was going for the kill, because you wouldn't stab someone there unless you were aiming for their head/neck. In other words, the assailant's original plan was probably to kill Du Yao with a sword - a constable's sword, or a good copy of it - and thereby frame the constabulary - or even Chief Jiang personally, given the timing of the kill. If Jiang never returned, Du Yao's body would ultimately have been found, with Chief Jiang the last known man in the room. Clearly, what happened is that Du Yao resisted, and/or the assailant noticed Jiang's entrance, and panicking, pulled out the backup plan of the needles. He then receives injuries from Chief Jiang, and has to escape ASAP.

Ice needles would have had to be prepared beforehand, or there would be a limited supply of them. This is evidenced by the fact that they can only be poisonous if they freeze existing liquid poison, or dip a formed needle in poison (source: Xuezi). Hence, the assailant either is an expert who fashioned the needles before the attack and dipped them, or carried a vial of poison from which to quickly form the needles. This might explain why MIB did not just use the needles on Chief Jiang, either (since if he raised the alarm himself before being found by Miss Du, he could have then pointed to MIB as prime suspect). Unfortunately, this doesn't tell us for sure whether the assailant is an expert practitioner.

If we now assume that the original plan was to frame constables/Jiang, and that their plan went partly astray (Jiang discovered the MIB, the kill had to happen differently, MIB was wounded). The next question is why/how MIB met Xiaofang and what happened there. One thing we can immediately presume is that Xiaofang must know MIB - otherwise, why would they argue before fighting (source: homeless man)? That means only one of two reasonable possibilities. Either Xiaofang is an accomplice, or Xiaofang is not but recognised the person (e.g. Fu Xia, or even Xi Mukang). If he is an accomplice, then they may have disputed the reward, or the fact that it went awry, etc. However, I find this unlikely. If they were accomplices, why are they meeting in the middle of the street, instead of a designated safehouse / spot? Whether Xiaofang wanted to help the assailant or betray him, this would make the most sense. Therefore, it seems most likely that Xiaofang met the assailant = MIB, who is someone Xiaofang can recognise, rather than being a completely random person.

There is one other strange fact that I think is important. The assailant was dressed in black and concealed. Well, he must have covered his face up too and dressed generally for anonymity - why would you do otherwise when going on a stealth mission? Even if the assailant didn't originally intend to kill Du Yao, this is only sensible. Chief Jiang saw enough of the man to draw blood, but could tell us nothing of his identity. This means that MIB was very well disguised. So, that raises two questions. Firstly, I suggested above that Xiaofang recognised MIB. How could he, if he was disguised? So, again, Xiaofang must know that person quite very well - either because he is an accomplice, or because he has been investigating and tailing the assailant, or because the assailant is someone he knows very well anyway. Secondly, the only clue we have as to the MIB's identity is the testimony that someone matching the description of Xi Mukang, at least a Jinkong Sect member, was spotted leaping over the wall. But who does this come from? Fu Xia. This is the one part of our data which doesn't make sense; why would you dress as a Jinkong Sect member? Perhaps to frame the Sect. But why would you dress as a Sect member, and then hit Du Yao with a constabulary sword? The only explanation would be that it was a member of the constabulary who wanted to frame the Sect. But this still doesn't make sense. If you are planning a murder, you surely have time and resources to get a different fucking sword when you are in a city of crime. Especially if you have the time to fashion a disguise. No, the sword and the sect clothing both are surely means of obscuring the assailant's true identity. One plausible explanation is that Fu Xia gave us false testimony. He is the only one that ever mentions the Jinkong Sect in all of our evidence. He gets this from interrogating servants, but clearly not servants he was speaking to together with Lingshu and Yifang, for he presents it as "haha I did a good job and got unique info!". Another plausible explanation was that the assailant had prepared both Jinkong disguise and constabulary sword in a double obfuscation. In that case, however, it is strange that Chief Jiang saw enough of MIB to draw blood but not notice the Jinkong Sect uniform.

Who Could Have Done It?
Chief Jiang: almost certainly not. Firstly, MIB as a separate entity certainly exists. It is improbable that Jiang was stupid enough to kill Du Yao after his meeting, and hang around, if MIB is an accomplice. It is improbable that MIB is working against Jiang and working also to kill Du Yao. It is improbable that MIB had snuck in specifically to stop Jiang. There are just too many improbabilities and questions.

Xiaofang: unlikely. He could equally have reached the mansion, he also has no alibi during the murder period, he could equally have been sponsored with needles, etc. If this is true, then he must have had an accomplice, the MIB, who he fought with later and was incarcerated by. Furthermore, Xiaofang could not have been the MIB which fled from the study - if so, wouldn't he still be dressed in black until he could reach a safe location? Even if Xiaofang is an accomplice, then, he is not the murderer himself.

Man X: maybe. Everything becomes easier with Mysterious Man X because he has all the time and resources in the world to pull this off. However, to me the big thing ruling this out is the Xiaofang aspect; Xiaofang probably recognised the MIB, which is why they argued before fighting straight away. Sure, it could be Random Man X that Xiaofang knows randomly, but narratively speaking, it seems improbable that treave would set up the clues this way. So, sure, Man X is possible, but I don't believe that is the best answer we have.

Xi Mukang: maybe. He could easily have left the restaurant just before the middle of the hai hour, as soon as Jing left the restaurant (he was there until then). It would explain the presence of the Sect members. He would have the qinggong, and could have again got the needles from a sponsor. He could have forged a short sword similar to the constables' - it's not like their sword is some unique proprietary shape, and given that this murder would have been carefully planned whoever was the murderer, if they had the resources to prepare those needles techniques, I assume they would have researched the sword to frame the constables, as well. Xiaofang, who was sitting and observing quite carefully the restaurant brawl, may have remembered Mukang. However, several factors make Xi Mukang less and less likely. (1) It makes more sense to suspect someone with a constables' sword rather than someone who has to forge one. (2) The assailant was dressed in black, and Jiang himself did not recognise his identity; meaning his face would have been covered. How would Xiaofang recognise him?

Fu Xia: likely. He definitely left the restaurant by end of xu hour when brawl ended, giving him time to reach the mansion. He has a constable's sword. He could have learnt the needles from whoever is sponsoring him. He would possess the qinggong to jump the wall. Given the eunuch spy situation, Xiaofang could have been Fu Xia's accomplice, or, more likely, could have been keeping an eye on the suspicious Fu Xia, and now chases him down / confronts him; Xiaofang was missing for Jiang's rendezvous because of this. The fact that Xiaofang first argued with MIB before fighting him suggests that Xiaofang knew MIB; this makes sense if it is Fu Xia. I do not think there is any concrete proof that incriminates anybody. Even if everything I say is right, there is no hard proof, unless Xiaofang wakes up and can name his MIB assailant - then, the case becomes significantly stronger. But out of the things we do know, he seems the most suspicious.

Remaining Problems
There are also several unanswered questions. Why did Chief Jiang call Xiaofang to the mansion? What did he suspect when he found Xiaofang gone, that he would return to Du Yao's study, rather than return to the restaurant or our lodgings to find the rest of us? Well, Chief Jiang may have suspected Xiaofang to have designs on Du Yao's person - though it seems rather out of the blue to me. However, this can't worry us at the moment, because we are not going to find anything out on this front that will lead us to one person or another.

Another question is where the assailant, whoever it was, got the ice needles and the poison from; but again, it seems clear that if the assailant was somebody we know, they could not have procured it from their immediate environment. It seems whoever is the murderer, they had some sponsors, supporters, masters, in the shadows who could supply them. Well, in the absence of any clear link between any particular person and such factions, it doesn't sway us to one person or another.

The other question is why and how Xiaofang's body disappeared, not immediately, but soon after. My best guess is that because the MIB was injured by Du Yao, and had fought again with Xiaofang (which may or may not have incurred further injuries), he first needed to retreat ASAP to recover - and once he had done first aid, he realised how dangerous it was to leave Xiaofang, and retrieved him. This doesn't solve the problem of why MIB then didn't kill Xiaofang altogether, or why whoever found Xiaofang, if not MIB, gave him to the sickhouse. But again, I don't think these questions or the MIB's behaviour would change whether it was Fu Xia, Xi Mukang, or whoever.

Conclusion
Based on what things we know for sure, I tried to isolate things we can probably be quite sure of. On that basis I went through each suspect, and my belief is that if we have to make the call now, Fu Xia appears the most suspicious, and Chief Jiang appears almost certainly innocent.

This rules A out for me, and makes me lean towards C - though, even if you all agree with my analysis, it's still a different question as to how we should vote. I am going to go ahead and say C > B for now, however.

 

Nevill

For #3, I said the reason Jiang Zheng went back to the mansion was because as a detective his first instincts when something goes wrong would be to worry about the investigation, which would have to be Du Yao. I think this is very likely.

For #5, I guess that Du Yao did have some connection with the Xueguizi. It wouldn't surprise me if Golden Fox Leaves were sold at Youxia City and if the Xueguizi have operated in Youxia City, Du Yao would have known about it, which in turn means he probably came to an arrangement with the Xueguizi. Obviously his assailant was connected with the Xueguizi.

For #6, I'm pretty sure it's a Xueguizi poison. Xuezi is a master of Xueguizi techniques, but her herbalism skill is weak according to treave, so she wouldn't know Xueguizi poisons. Chi Qilin told is in no uncertain terms that this is not from the central plains (and Tianshan is not in the central plains), and we know that the Xueguizi operate anonymously and quietly in the central plains (like when they kill someone who betrays their trust).

As for Xiaofang, we know a mole compromised the constables. Gao Ying would probably have wanted to uncover the mole and given Xiaofang orders to watch for suspicious behavior. When Fu Xia vanished, that would have been the trigger for Xiaofang to investigate him. We know Xiaofang left after Fu Xia did: "Fu Xia stands up and tries to talk with them, but instead becomes entangled in a fight with the monks. Xiaofang, on the other hand, is just sitting and staring at the chaotic mess all around her." The next thing that happens to Fu Xia is that the fight drags him out of the restaurant. Sometime later we discover Xiaofang has vanished too. If Xiaofang confronted Fu Xia, this would also accentuate the dislike we detected when Fu Xia told us not to worry about Xiaofang's absence.

Treave, what can Xuezi tell us about the Xueguizi's mastery of poisons?

 

Xuezi says that they don't use poisons, or at least, not the liquid sort. They do have poison techniques that utilize qi.

As for what Qilin actually said:

She did not say that it was not from the Central Plains, she said that because she is not familiar with it, it cannot be something commonly used around here, nor is it something that the Wudu Cult, with its vast repository of poisons, already has. The Wudu Cult itself does collect foreign poisons whenever they can, as evidenced by the Meihua Poison Qilin used on Zhang Manxing.

 

Tigranes, good points all around.

We know from the homeless man that MIB was not disguised, but wore a mask. If Xiaofang was the one who stopped the man, he should indeed know him very well to recognize him.

The explanation of the assassin panicking and switching the tool of murder is plausible as well - but it does place Fu Xia at the top of the suspects list along with Zheng and Xiaofang. Even if Zheng was the last person seen with Du Yao, he could have had an alibi at a time of murder. Fu Xia couldn't.

I think we have established that MIB didn't try to move Xiaofang to the sickhouse (he left him for dead), but Yunzi did (this is Youxia City - no one else would be motivated to).

So, to reiterate.

- Fu Xia has no alibi.
- Fu Xia has a constable's sword.
- The murderer was injured. Fu Xia had light injuries when he got back.
- Xiaofang was seen arguing with the masked man. Since the man was masked, he should have known him well enough to identify him and strike a conversation - or be in cahoots with him. Unless the man spoke to the eunuch first.
- Fu Xia really does make some astonishingly stupid observations that try to obfuscate the identity of the MIB, or of the sword used to wound Du Yao, or of the needle marks found on his body.
- Suein thinks it is either Fu Xia, Xiaofang, or both.
- Zheng thinks Xiaofang either betrayed us, or run afoul of someone who knew of his role. The first part apparently does not apply.

These points taken together make Fu Xia an obvious suspect. But the case is still bigger than that.

 

Hm, that rules out the possibility of it being a Xueguizi poison. There is some serious shit going on there to find a Xueguizi technique with a Jinkong sect framejob and a poison that even the Wudu do not know of.

Our investigation is bigger than that, but I think the court case isn't.

I think from another metagame perspective, we can see that our investigation needs to continue after the trial, and both A and B throw up roadblocks to the investigation (no more Jiang Zheng or we leave Youxia City), so C is the choice we need.

 

Tigranes , surely with all this reasoning you can see that the duck did it?

 

No, I don't think this is just Fu Xia. This isn't even one person. As Absinthe said, this:

This is some heavy shit here. Fu Xia is at most a part of the plan, but he's not the perp. If he's involved at all.

 

Note that I didn't say 'the culprit'. He is a suspect allright, perhaps a too obvious one.

This is the part of the reasoning I have trouble with. Why would Fu Xia implicate the constables? That puts him under fire as well.

And also, chief said that Du Yao died the moment he entered the room. If we are to take this literally, then it means the assassin murdered Du Yao independently from chief Zheng's entry and Tigranes' reasoning is insufficient to explain it.

 

I think Fu Xia is connected to a network, but he would be the perp. Tigranes did a good job of illustrating why Man X is unlikely: Xiaofang recognized this person.

 

And? Xiaofang works for Gao and the Eunuchs, and those people have agents everywhere.

 

Narrative conservation of detail suggests it would have to be someone we know.

To manipulate the investigative effort, mostly. If there's only one suspect, we'd immediately look for other possibilities, but if the first suspect pinned with evidence is Jiang Zheng himself the constables could be guided to a convenient second possible culprit during their investigations. Between Jiang Zheng and the Jinkong framejob, Fu Xia could elude notice.

The poison was determined to have killed Du Yao in seconds. If Du Yao was dying when Jiang Zheng saw it, then the poison was probably the assailant's immediate reaction to finish up and get the hell out when Fu Xia entered.

 

Yeah, I'm not a fan of predicting the GM's intentions and voting based off of plot devices, that's just Asking For It. Xiaofang is involved with all sorts of shady people, it's his job, so just because he recognized the dude that stabbed him doesn't necessarily mean that it's Fu Xia. It is plausible, yes, but not a guarantee.

 

Let me try a different angle for you. Something absolutely no one has so far managed to answer no matter how many times I raised this issue:

What do you think Fu Xia was up to while he was gone if he wasn't the perp? He couldn't've been brawling the entire time. Those monks had him on the defensive and he came back with only light cuts and bruises.

 

Getting the fuck away from them?

 

Going to the whorehouse and smelling the roses on the way.

The same question could be addressed to Xiaofang - where the hell was he until a homeless man spotted him on the streets?

treave, how far from the mansion is the place where Xiaofang was spotted that night?

It is sad that the most interesting part of the analysis I wanted to read is listed under "Remaining Problems".

 

For the entire time? These are drunk monks and it's dark.

 

Being drunk certainly didn't stop them from roughing him up. I'm trying to avoid paralysis by analysis here. We can argue about the weather conditions, state of inebriation, drunkenness of the guards in Du Yao's mansion and which way the wind was blowing all we want. Point is, Fu Xia was pursued by pissed off drunken pugilists, it is quite possible that he was shaking them off the entire time he was away.

 

Not very far.