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Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

Discussion in 'Obsidian Entertainment' started by Roguey, May 13, 2018.

  1. Roguey Arcane Sawyerite Sawyerist Sawyer's Bride No Fun Allowed

    Roguey
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    I figured the megathread could do without this topic interrupting all the nuanced discussions of the writing, mechanics, and homosexuality.

    A week after release and Steamspy is estimating sales are in the 100-200k range. The first one had estimated sales of 200-260k after the same amount of time.

    The Sunday after release is pretty much always when you'll see the most players. Deadfire's is 22,723 (reflected at https://store.steampowered.com/stats/ though not recorded at Steam Charts yet). PoE's was 41,787. Shadowrun Returns beats it with 24,242 and even ELEX barely maintains its German supremacy with 22,871. However, it's not a total flop. Obviously it's doing better than Tides of Numenera and Tyranny, but it also beats Wasteland 2's record of 18,576 and Divinity: Original Sin's record of 21,953 and both of those were pretty successful. Howeverrr they didn't significantly inflate their budgets with full voice acting right out of the gate (though both did eventually, with terrible results :)), awesomer graphics (though D:OS is no slouch in this area and Wasteland 2 certainly put in a lot of work to improve them with the director's cut), or use deliberately dumbed-down/streamlined mechanics in a foolish attempt to win over a wider audience. And of course no one is thrilled when a sequel, particularly the first Black Isle/Obsidian sequel not constrained by a slamdunk schedule or budget, doesn't outperform or even match its predecessor.

    I suppose Sawyer's now been stripped of his "hitmaker" title, so he won't be getting his turn-based historical RPG. He might have seen the writing on the wall, hence the "I'm burned out and won't be directing projects for a while" and "full voice acting was the owners' idea, I had nothing to do with it" statements from a while back. I imagine Avellone is pleased that the owners are getting burned, though I'm reasonably confident that his week of forum posts probably only cost them dozens/hundreds/possibly thousands of sales, whereas the gap between what they wanted and what they got is in the hundreds of thousands. Now Obsidian's stuck doing what Bioware did after Dragon Age II and what McComb did after Tides of Numenera: say "Yeah, well the CRITICS love it."
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. TheSentinel Magister

    TheSentinel
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    I never believed he would get it either way. Especially after recent revelations by MCA, I believe Feargus only said "yeah sure" to shut him up and keep him motivated. I don't think Feargus ever had a lot of interest in the isometric cRPG wave, he just used it to save the company.
     
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  3. Jokzore Savant

    Jokzore
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    How could anyone expect big launch numbers from a sequel to a game that was mediocre at best. Couple that with them already announcing 3xDLC in the near future.

    Why the fuck should anyone buy this right now? It's not a hotly anticipated title.

    I bet there's a lot of people out there (me included) waiting for the Ultimate-GoTY-Director Cut Edition-- Or as I like to call it The Completed Game Edition.
     
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  4. Pretty Erudite Patron

    Pretty
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    I already bought all the DLC's for this one, so it's better be good!
     
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  5. Gaius maximus Scholar

    Gaius maximus
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    it flipped get over it.
     
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  6. Lahey Laheyist Patron

    Lahey
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    Grab the Codex by the pussy
    • critics love it
    • muh marketing
    • poor release window
    • plebs can't into incline
    • sales are inverse to True Quality™
    • people are waiting for complete edition
    • its got legs
    • muh MCA
    • sales don't matter
    Am I missing any?
     
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  7. Big Wrangle Scholar

    Big Wrangle
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    From what I recall only a small percentage of PoE owners bothered with completing White March in the first place, so these DLCs won't really do shit until a Complete Edition is out. If this is an actual flop, that "The Outer Worlds" game is the last card for Obsidian. But honestly, they'll break even if I'm to guess.
    Until the company comments further, I don't think there is much to say.
     
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  8. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss
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    That's a good point. I was reading this piece to have an idea of how much is needed to break even. Not much.

    Now you need to consider how much PoE2 cost. Probably less than D:OS. They are probably breaking even already.
     
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  9. FreeKaner Prophet of the Dumpsterfire

    FreeKaner
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    It was all obvious.
     
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  10. Riddler Augur Patron

    Riddler
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    Bubbles In Memoria
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. TheSentinel Magister

    TheSentinel
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    hmm? the Fig budget alone (5m) is already more than DOS1's budget. Keep in mind that they were already in development since 2015, and went over the fig budget.
     
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  12. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss
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    Larian's budget was 4m euros, not dollars. You are also forgetting that Obsidian had a publisher helping them.
     
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  13. Roguey Arcane Sawyerite Sawyerist Sawyer's Bride No Fun Allowed

    Roguey
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    D:OS also used some creative accounting with regard to its budget since a lot of the cost that went into making its engine went over to Dragon Commander, which was sacrificed with an early release to make D:OS better. :M
     
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  14. Morkar illiterate

    Morkar
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    Yeah, exactly. I guess the game will sell over time. But it doesn't seem to be a hit.
     
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  15. Kit Walker Totally Not Captain Shrek

    Kit Walker
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    I had decided to stay out of the discussion in general, but these are quite valid points. Except, I don't think there is a reason to give out on PoE2 so fast. It most definitely won't be a flop. Its real problem is its mediocrity. Despite what the "critics" are saying and "consensus" on the codex, it's not that great a game. It is a perfectly passable, valid game, just like PoE, and an improvement on that. Still, it has managed to retain its tiredness. It is a ship trying to sail on the winds of BG nostalgia, and that can take it only thus far. What are its own merits? Very little. The setting is quite banal, the mechanics are a variation on D&D stuff and the writing Bioware-lite. It does nothing that it can proudly say is its own thing. And, that I think is going to kill it in the long run. It will end up being another big RPG that few manage to finish, just like PoE. It will sell alright, but diminishing the brand at every iteration.

    You seem to think that given a chance, Sawyer will make a great TB RPG. I have my doubts. But yeah, if this ship sinks, he sinks with it.
     
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  16. Jokzore Savant

    Jokzore
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    Who's brilliant idea was it to stick the expansion in middle of the vanilla game? That's the sole reason I refused to play it. I've never been so bored by a video game (little did i know how Numanuma would turn out), yet they expect me to play through half of it AGAIN just so I can potentially, maybe experience some incline? No thx Obsidian, you don't have enough goodwill to convince me of that.
     
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  17. aweigh Arcane

    aweigh
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    I'm guessing it'll be do well enough that it allows the company to continue making RPGs, probably even isometric RPGs, however it won't sell enough to make PoE 3 viable.

    This is probably the last time we'll ever get to romance godlike cloacas.
     
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  18. Bonerbill Learned

    Bonerbill
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    The numbers are actually better than I expected; I thought it was going to do worse. I guess it will do well enough overtime, but it looks like the next Pillars game will probably be a different style of RPG all together.
     
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  19. Morkar illiterate

    Morkar
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    You could just load an older safe and play from there?
     
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  20. KateMicucci Educated

    KateMicucci
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    Thank God.
     
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  21. Pretty Erudite Patron

    Pretty
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    Underrail does exactly that.
     
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  22. Kit Walker Totally Not Captain Shrek

    Kit Walker
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    Good point. But Underrail is fun. So no one actually minds playing it again. PoE, I could not do that once.
     
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  23. Pretty Erudite Patron

    Pretty
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    Do you think Black Geyser is going to be a better game, or it just falls into the same pitfall as POE (being mediocre BG clone)?
     
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  24. KyivAfter12am Savant

    KyivAfter12am
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    You only get one chance to bank on middle aged people's nostalgia for their school/college days. PoE1 had to be groundbreaking to reignite the Baldur's Gate-like genre and secure success for its sequel, and for better or worse it wasn't. It is pretty common knowledge that the sales of a sequel are defined not by its own quality, but by the previous game's success. In case of PoE1 the "previous games" were the masterpieces: Baldur's Gate 2 and Torment. PoE2 had a much tougher job.
     
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  25. Big Wrangle Scholar

    Big Wrangle
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    Another factor for the small White March percentage was also the fact that the first part received actual mixed reviews from critics. Meaning that those who read the reviews wouldn't bother diving in, and those who got burned by Part I jumped ship.
     
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