Official Codex Discord Server

  1. Welcome to rpgcodex.net, a site dedicated to discussing computer based role-playing games in a free and open fashion. We're less strict than other forums, but please refer to the rules.

    "This message is awaiting moderator approval": All new users must pass through our moderation queue before they will be able to post normally. Until your account has "passed" your posts will only be visible to yourself (and moderators) until they are approved. Give us a week to get around to approving / deleting / ignoring your mundane opinion on crap before hassling us about it. Once you have passed the moderation period (think of it as a test), you will be able to post normally, just like all the other retards.
    Dismiss Notice

Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

Discussion in 'Obsidian Entertainment' started by Roguey, May 13, 2018.

  1. Roguey Arcane Sawyerite

    Roguey
    Joined:
    May 29, 2010
    Messages:
    26,128
    I figured the megathread could do without this topic interrupting all the nuanced discussions of the writing, mechanics, and homosexuality.

    A week after release and Steamspy is estimating sales are in the 100-200k range. The first one had estimated sales of 200-260k after the same amount of time.

    The Sunday after release is pretty much always when you'll see the most players. Deadfire's is 22,723 (reflected at https://store.steampowered.com/stats/ though not recorded at Steam Charts yet). PoE's was 41,787. Shadowrun Returns beats it with 24,242 and even ELEX barely maintains its German supremacy with 22,871. However, it's not a total flop. Obviously it's doing better than Tides of Numenera and Tyranny, but it also beats Wasteland 2's record of 18,576 and Divinity: Original Sin's record of 21,953 and both of those were pretty successful. Howeverrr they didn't significantly inflate their budgets with full voice acting right out of the gate (though both did eventually, with terrible results :)), awesomer graphics (though D:OS is no slouch in this area and Wasteland 2 certainly put in a lot of work to improve them with the director's cut), or use deliberately dumbed-down/streamlined mechanics in a foolish attempt to win over a wider audience. And of course no one is thrilled when a sequel, particularly the first Black Isle/Obsidian sequel not constrained by a slamdunk schedule or budget, doesn't outperform or even match its predecessor.

    I suppose Sawyer's now been stripped of his "hitmaker" title, so he won't be getting his turn-based historical RPG. He might have seen the writing on the wall, hence the "I'm burned out and won't be directing projects for a while" and "full voice acting was the owners' idea, I had nothing to do with it" statements from a while back. I imagine Avellone is pleased that the owners are getting burned, though I'm reasonably confident that his week of forum posts probably only cost them dozens/hundreds/possibly thousands of sales, whereas the gap between what they wanted and what they got is in the hundreds of thousands. Now Obsidian's stuck doing what Bioware did after Dragon Age II and what McComb did after Tides of Numenera: say "Yeah, well the CRITICS love it."
    [​IMG]
     
    • Funny x 17
    • Brofist x 10
    • Informative x 8
    • Agree x 2
    • incline x 2
    • (autism) x 2
    • Participation Award x 1
    • Acknowledge this user's Agenda x 1
    • gimme dem dolla bills x 1
    • Thanks! x 1
    • Salute x 1
    • Interesting x 1
    • M'lady x 1
    • Excited! x 1
    ^ Top  
  2. TheSentinel Arcane

    TheSentinel
    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2015
    Messages:
    4,630
    Location:
    Ommadawn
    I never believed he would get it either way. Especially after recent revelations by MCA, I believe Feargus only said "yeah sure" to shut him up and keep him motivated. I don't think Feargus ever had a lot of interest in the isometric cRPG wave, he just used it to save the company.
     
    • Agree Agree x 7
    • Funny Funny x 6
    • Yes Yes x 2
    • Informative Informative x 1
    ^ Top  
  3. Jokzore Savant

    Jokzore
    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2017
    Messages:
    610
    How could anyone expect big launch numbers from a sequel to a game that was mediocre at best. Couple that with them already announcing 3xDLC in the near future.

    Why the fuck should anyone buy this right now? It's not a hotly anticipated title.

    I bet there's a lot of people out there (me included) waiting for the Ultimate-GoTY-Director Cut Edition-- Or as I like to call it The Completed Game Edition.
     
    • Agree Agree x 14
    • Brofist Brofist x 4
    ^ Top  
  4. Deadman Arcane Patron

    Deadman
    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    3,178
    Pathfinder: Kingmaker
    I already bought all the DLC's for this one, so it's better be good!
     
    • Funny x 12
    • Despair x 2
    • Fabulously Optimistic x 2
    • Agree x 1
    • Creative x 1
    ^ Top  
  5. Gaius maximus Arbiter

    Gaius maximus
    Joined:
    May 25, 2015
    Messages:
    2,306
    Location:
    Halls of Moria
    it flipped get over it.
     
    • Bad Spelling Bad Spelling x 3
    • Excited! Excited! x 1
    ^ Top  
  6. Lahey Laheyist Patron

    Lahey
    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2017
    Messages:
    1,467
    Grab the Codex by the pussy
    • critics love it
    • muh marketing
    • poor release window
    • plebs can't into incline
    • sales are inverse to True Quality™
    • people are waiting for complete edition
    • its got legs
    • muh MCA
    • sales don't matter
    Am I missing any?
     
    • Funny x 13
    • it is a mystery x 2
    • Brofist x 1
    • Rage x 1
    • Informative x 1
    • :M x 1
    ^ Top  
  7. Big Wrangle Guest

    Big Wrangle
    From what I recall only a small percentage of PoE owners bothered with completing White March in the first place, so these DLCs won't really do shit until a Complete Edition is out. If this is an actual flop, that "The Outer Worlds" game is the last card for Obsidian. But honestly, they'll break even if I'm to guess.
    Until the company comments further, I don't think there is much to say.
     
    ^ Top  
  8. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss
    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2018
    Messages:
    1,301
    Grab the Codex by the pussy
    That's a good point. I was reading this piece to have an idea of how much is needed to break even. Not much.

    Now you need to consider how much PoE2 cost. Probably less than D:OS. They are probably breaking even already.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
    ^ Top  
  9. FreeKaner Prophet of the Dumpsterfire

    FreeKaner
    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2015
    Messages:
    4,356
    Location:
    Devlet-i ʿAlīye-i ʿErdogānīye
    It was all obvious.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
    ^ Top  
  10. Riddler Prophet Patron

    Riddler
    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2009
    Messages:
    1,008
    Bubbles In Memoria
    [​IMG]
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    • Shit Shit x 1
    ^ Top  
  11. TheSentinel Arcane

    TheSentinel
    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2015
    Messages:
    4,630
    Location:
    Ommadawn
    hmm? the Fig budget alone (5m) is already more than DOS1's budget. Keep in mind that they were already in development since 2015, and went over the fig budget.
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
    • Informative Informative x 1
    ^ Top  
  12. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss
    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2018
    Messages:
    1,301
    Grab the Codex by the pussy
    Larian's budget was 4m euros, not dollars. You are also forgetting that Obsidian had a publisher helping them.
     
    ^ Top  
  13. Roguey Arcane Sawyerite

    Roguey
    Joined:
    May 29, 2010
    Messages:
    26,128
    D:OS also used some creative accounting with regard to its budget since a lot of the cost that went into making its engine went over to Dragon Commander, which was sacrificed with an early release to make D:OS better. :M
     
    • Acknowledge this user's Agenda Acknowledge this user's Agenda x 1
    • gimme dem dolla bills gimme dem dolla bills x 1
    • Yes Yes x 1
    • :M :M x 1
    ^ Top  
  14. Morkar illiterate

    Morkar
    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    5,600
    Location:
    Germany
    Yeah, exactly. I guess the game will sell over time. But it doesn't seem to be a hit.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    ^ Top  
  15. Jokzore Savant

    Jokzore
    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2017
    Messages:
    610
    Who's brilliant idea was it to stick the expansion in middle of the vanilla game? That's the sole reason I refused to play it. I've never been so bored by a video game (little did i know how Numanuma would turn out), yet they expect me to play through half of it AGAIN just so I can potentially, maybe experience some incline? No thx Obsidian, you don't have enough goodwill to convince me of that.
     
    • Agree x 11
    • Brofist x 5
    • Yes x 1
    • butthurt x 1
    • Bad Spelling x 1
    • retadred x 1
    ^ Top  
  16. aweigh Arcane

    aweigh
    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2005
    Messages:
    15,310
    Location:
    Florida
    I'm guessing it'll be do well enough that it allows the company to continue making RPGs, probably even isometric RPGs, however it won't sell enough to make PoE 3 viable.

    This is probably the last time we'll ever get to romance godlike cloacas.
     
    • Funny Funny x 4
    • Excited! Excited! x 1
    • Doggy Doggy x 1
    ^ Top  
  17. Bonerbill Savant

    Bonerbill
    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2013
    Messages:
    297
    Location:
    North Carolina
    The numbers are actually better than I expected; I thought it was going to do worse. I guess it will do well enough overtime, but it looks like the next Pillars game will probably be a different style of RPG all together.
     
    • Salute Salute x 1
    ^ Top  
  18. Morkar illiterate

    Morkar
    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    5,600
    Location:
    Germany
    You could just load an older safe and play from there?
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Bad Spelling Bad Spelling x 1
    ^ Top  
  19. KateMicucci Educated

    KateMicucci
    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2017
    Messages:
    248
    Thank God.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
    ^ Top  
  20. Deadman Arcane Patron

    Deadman
    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    3,178
    Pathfinder: Kingmaker
    Underrail does exactly that.
     
    • incline incline x 4
    • decline decline x 1
    ^ Top  
  21. Kit Walker Totally Not Captain Shrek

    Kit Walker
    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2018
    Messages:
    784

    Good point. But Underrail is fun. So no one actually minds playing it again. PoE, I could not do that once.
     
    • Brofist x 3
    • Agree x 3
    • Yes x 2
    • Acknowledge this user's Agenda x 1
    • Disagree x 1
    • Doggy x 1
    • :M x 1
    ^ Top  
  22. Deadman Arcane Patron

    Deadman
    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2010
    Messages:
    3,178
    Pathfinder: Kingmaker

    Do you think Black Geyser is going to be a better game, or it just falls into the same pitfall as POE (being mediocre BG clone)?
     
    • it is a mystery it is a mystery x 2
    ^ Top  
  23. KyivAfter12am Savant

    KyivAfter12am
    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2013
    Messages:
    222
    You only get one chance to bank on middle aged people's nostalgia for their school/college days. PoE1 had to be groundbreaking to reignite the Baldur's Gate-like genre and secure success for its sequel, and for better or worse it wasn't. It is pretty common knowledge that the sales of a sequel are defined not by its own quality, but by the previous game's success. In case of PoE1 the "previous games" were the masterpieces: Baldur's Gate 2 and Torment. PoE2 had a much tougher job.
     
    • Agree Agree x 7
    • Disagree Disagree x 2
    • Makes you think... Makes you think... x 1
    ^ Top  
  24. Big Wrangle Guest

    Big Wrangle
    Another factor for the small White March percentage was also the fact that the first part received actual mixed reviews from critics. Meaning that those who read the reviews wouldn't bother diving in, and those who got burned by Part I jumped ship.
     
    ^ Top  
  25. Cross Savant

    Cross
    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2017
    Messages:
    725
    The reason why PoE 1, WL2 and even non-Kickstarter titles like Blackguards sold relatively well is because they came out at a time when the cRPG 'revival' was getting a ton of attention from the press. This, coupled with the Kickstarter craze of 2012-2013, convinced a lot of people who otherwise wouldn't be interested in these game to try them out.

    Once that brief surge in popularity passed and those people lost interest, it was back to niche status. The best example of this is T:ToN: its Kickstarter campaign broke the crowdfunding record, but then it spend so long in development that everyone just lost interest.

    D:OS is the only one to escape this fate due to a number of factors (WoW aesthetic, co-op, etc.) giving it some degree of mainstream appeal.

    With Deadfire, it doesn't help that Obsidian is hilariously incompetent at marketing. For instance, PoE's Steam page is still using screenshots from the beta that look worse than the release version.
     
    • Agree x 8
    • Funny x 2
    • Brofist x 1
    • Yes x 1
    • :M x 1
    ^ Top  

(buying stuff via the above buttons helps us pay the hosting bills, thanks!)