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Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

Discussion in 'Obsidian Entertainment' started by Roguey, May 13, 2018.

  1. Lahey Laheyist Patron

    Lahey
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    Grab the Codex by the pussy
    FPS
     
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  2. Trashos Arcane

    Trashos
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    Can we try to look into this issue from a slightly different angle? Why would it sell better?
     
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  3. Roguey Arcane Sawyerite Sawyerist Sawyer's Bride No Fun Allowed

    Roguey
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    Well yeah, Avellone confirmed this last week. The plan was to make really profitable Bioware-style cinematic RPGs, get the attention of some publisher, then sell the company and retire.
     
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  4. Major_Blackhart Codexia Lord Sodom Patron

    Major_Blackhart
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    Which one? RTwP vs. RT vs. TB?
    I don't know. They've been using that spiritual successor to BG crap to generate excitement, and as a result they use RTwP. My whole thing was that BG was successful in spite of RTwP, not because of it. I never felt it added anything vs. other forms of combat.

    I prefer TB and as a result I frequently feel that RTwP or RT games in that style fall flat of what they could be. It's a personal taste thing, but also to a point it's a control element thing. It's annoying to have to juggle between four or six characters with individual abilities and powers, etc. in real time or even RTwP. It makes combat hectic, not thoughtful. It was one of the charms of TB combat.

    FO for example had exceedingly simple combat, and while there weren't a ton of things you could do in combat, each action was weighed effectively by allowing you to judge a situation. Underrail has quite a few options for combat, and benefits fantastically from TB. I don't need to play either game in RT to know that it wouldn't be enjoyable to do so.
     
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  5. Major_Blackhart Codexia Lord Sodom Patron

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    It's funny, but that's the exact opposite of what Troika wanted. They just wanted to make games, stick to a niche market. I was always upset about how things ended up with that great team. So many diamonds in the rough. They just didn't want to run the business side of things.

    Feargus wants to run teh business side of things but doesn't necessarily strike me as someone who's incredibly good at it. He's a survivor. That's one thing. He's good at doing whatever it takes to keep the company afloat. That doesn't make you a great businessman though. My father is good friends with a guy that manages to use every trick in the book to avoid this bill or that tax, etc. as he barely keeps his head above water with his business, etc. That doesn't make him a good businessman, just street smart in that sense of doing what you need to do to get to the next day, week, month, or paycheck.

    I've always felt that good businessmen don't necessarily need to rely on those tactics throughout their career the way Obsidian has. To me, Obsidian has always seemed like it was one step away from bankruptcy. Even with their recent successes, there's still a cloud hanging overhead. They never seemed to be able to capitalize on their successes properly. The fact that Avellone confirmed that these guys are simply looking for a payday and that's that simply shows that they're not focused on running the business proper, but rather giving the appearance as such.
     
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  6. Loostreaks Educated

    Loostreaks
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    RtwP should sell better for a larger audience. Compared to DOS I/II, Obsidian ( tech) looks more than a decade behind and not enough to excite wider audience ( with ship combat done in text, as your new, "best" feature).
    They would have more success ($) with design more closer to Dragon Age Origins than trying to emulate IE games. Wasn't Dungeon Siege III done on their own engine?
     
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  7. Morality Games Arcane Patron

    Morality Games
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    PC RPG Website of the Year, 2015 Codex 2016 - The Age of Grimoire Serpent in the Staglands Bubbles In Memoria A Beautifully Desolate Campaign Pillars of Eternity 2: Deadfire
    On the list of things Morality Games doesn't understand, I'm not sure where this full voiceover = AAA sales is coming from (which is entry level 5,000,000 sales, which none of these games has come close to).

    They're just trying to stay competitive with other AA games in the 1-2 million sales category because there have to be obvious signs of aesthetic and technical advancement.
     
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  8. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss
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    You just described most games on steam. There are a lot of gamers out there buying games on the heat of the moment just because they can, even if they have no real interest or time to play said games. This is great for developers, but bad for armchair critics like us because we have no idea what is going on. Moreover, there is the sequel's curse. I will repost a comment from the other thread.

    I think it is because the novelty effect wore of. Uncle Vince got it right.

    What is hilarious is that Vault Dweller invited Feargus I-like-to-Mismanage-my-Own-Company Urquhart to give advice in the same update and he said exactly the opposite!

    That's great business advice Mr. Urquhart. You really know what you are talking about, don't you?
     
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  9. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss
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    What he said suggested that they only need to find a new publisher to keep the studio afloat and that owners are a separate cast that comes first with payments. They are the ones that will profit with the royalties of this game, not the studio. The survival of the studio relies entirely on publishers and they always find a new sucker to take advantage of. They are the ones who pay most of the bills.

    Yes, but at what pace? Even the first Fallout sold a ton after all these years. DO:S keep selling in a frenetic pace and so did PoE. I'm not sure that this will happen with this game, but then again their business model seem to rely on publishers.
     
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  10. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss
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    MRY what do you think about all this?
     
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  11. Grape_You_In_the_Mouth Savant

    Grape_You_In_the_Mouth
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    Nice catch Blakemoreland. Vince is so smart it's absurd.
     
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  12. fantadomat Dumbfuck! Dumbfuck Edgy

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    And their best selling games are story oriented,have you forgotten the outrage of ME3? Everyone was talking about how bad the ending was and making videos of pissing over the game or destroying the disc. That was the point at which the studio begun to go downhill when it comes to revenue. Games do sell based on the quality of their first game. PoE did sell very well but disappointed everyone. Also everyone loves a good story,yet the game didn't deliver it.
     
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  13. Morality Games Arcane Patron

    Morality Games
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    PC RPG Website of the Year, 2015 Codex 2016 - The Age of Grimoire Serpent in the Staglands Bubbles In Memoria A Beautifully Desolate Campaign Pillars of Eternity 2: Deadfire
    It's worth noting this new Steamspy algorithm sees some chaotic jumps. Battletech sold 411,000 on May 12th but just flipped to 559,000 on May 13th.

    In fairness, the creator said they would for awhile.
     
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  14. Clockwork Knight Arcane

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    I was thinking about this cover the other day, it's kind of amazing how bad it is. The Batman logo (which alone guarantees sales) is obscured by the tenouttaten, so they need to add a second, smaller logo.
     
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  15. Jenkem Cipher Patron

    Jenkem
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    It will be interesting to compare Deadfire to the upcoming launches of Pathfinder: Kingmaker and Black Geyser.
     
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  16. agris Arcane Patron

    agris
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    Urthor the notion that BattleTech cannibalized Deadfire sales strikes me as odd. Why do you think the two audiences would overlap to a significant degree? One is a RTwP story driven RPG, the other is a TB mech combat tactics game.

    I don’t see the connection.
     
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  17. Urthor Arbiter Patron

    Urthor
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    Pillars of Eternity 2: Deadfire
    Old hardcore gamers people playing niche 90s game genres from Kickstarters, relying on the appeal of classic brands?

    I doubt that there is zero overlap, I wouldn't say it is a single factor in the success by any stretch, but there is absolutely some small amount of overlap.
     
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  18. fantadomat Dumbfuck! Dumbfuck Edgy

    fantadomat
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    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss i just what to add that many AAA game suffering from the shit sequel sales. Last few years the market have become very jaded. This days devs get only one chance of impressing the crowd. All of those games that you quoted are pretty meh on release. Banner saga was a cool but unfinished and episodic,a thing that most backers didn't expected. I will be surprised if the third game moves anything decent in numbers.
     
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  19. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss
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    Grab the Codex by the pussy
    I don't think these comparisons have merit because ME games are like interactive movies with huge production values. Players that enjoy these games care about their characters. So sequels are profitable and make sense, because they are similar to pop culture movies. But nobody cares about Thaos or the watcher because they wanted to make a team of adventurers to kill things. So trying to make a sequel of PoE, and what is worse, trying to invest any resources in continuity between both games was a waste. Just because blockbusters earn a fortune with sequels and triple-A games that imitate them also profit because they sell interactive movies with high graphic fidelity, it doesn't mean that medium or smaller studios should do the same when they are trying to do something entirely different.

    Besides, the supposed death of Bioware was celebrated too early. Their doom is a delusion that we tell ourselves because we hate these games and want to see them fail. I thought that everyone was hating ME:A, until I talked to my cousin who bought this aberration at full price on release. He buys a lot of games and plays them all. I tried to explain to him how bad the game was and he simply dismissed all the criticisms and said he enjoyed the game. That after all the fuck ups in the development of this game, being blasted by the game journalists, etc. The game was after all a financial success. Triple-A studios are like Jason, they can die multiple deaths and survive as if nothing had happened.
     
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  20. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss
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    I have no idea, to be honest. The machine is so powerful that each sequel can lose and attract new players. There are a lot of potential costumers out there waiting to buy a new game. At the end of the day they don't lose money. It's curious that you mentioned the Banner Saga 2 because we discussed this before. Read this: Stoic's John Watson at NASSCOM GDC 2016: The Banner Saga 2 was a commercial disappointment. They overestimated the interest in the second game and tried to add a bunch of fancy stuff that nobody asked, just like Obsidian did. In this thread you will find posters criticising their sequel (trilogy!) model.
     
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  21. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

    Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss
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    He is not dumb, I can tell you that. But notice that in this case he simply used common sense and steam spy. Other people that have been paying attention to sequels were all saying the same thing. Sequels for cRPGs are bad. Avoid them like the plague. But apparently the big shots on some studios can't see these basic facts because they are completely disconnected from what is happening around them. That also explains why a guy like Fargo, who is a veteran of the industry, decides to release Torment in the same week of Zelda's release. Such a rookie mistake. He is now making a sequel to Wasteland 2. Well...
     
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  22. Major_Blackhart Codexia Lord Sodom Patron

    Major_Blackhart
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    Listen, guys like Fargo still blamed the fact that Interplay went under because they didn't focus on consoles early enough and in enough numbers, not that the company was mismanaged, the industry was misunderstood, and they completely shit the bed on what made them a good company to begin with.

    Obsidian? Never really that great of a company. Decent at times, and even capable of being good. But great? No, I don't think I can call any of their games as part of that category.
    The fact that it has become quite easy to pay attention to market trends thanks to Steamspy and other apps, and that guys like Fargo and Feargus don't, tells you something.
     
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  23. fantadomat Dumbfuck! Dumbfuck Edgy

    fantadomat
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    Selling a lot less that the first game is not about overestimating the market,it is clear loss of customers. Some loss could be expected,but loosing 70%-80% is not something you could expect. They didn't sell because they made their game episodic and didn't have any marketing. I found the second game on some torrent randomly a few months after release. It is like any other episodic game,the first episode sells well and after that everyone forgets about the game.
    For non episodic games is important to grab the customer imagination and interest with the first game. Both Dragon age and Mass effect managed to do this. DOS managed to deliver what they promised and its fans enjoyed it. Also Andromeda was a massive flop no matter what bunch of retarded journos are talking about. The whole studio get dismantled and bioware got kicked in the balls. If you are thing that it was a success then you are either diluted or naive.
     
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  24. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

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    This. If they managed to make decent games, or at least rough gems, was despite the management, not because of them. The same Fargo that ensured Fallout existence was the same Fargo that didn't protect Tim Cain's role in the second game. Hit or miss management.
     
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  25. Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss Magister Patron

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    The problem is that storyfag developers are trying to imitate big studios in making sequels and creating a franchise. That's a dumb idea because these games don't have the same production values and try to offer a gameplay that is much more passive for casual standards. Notice how Obsidian and InXile try really hard to make trailers with a cinematographic look. They are so ashamed of being isometric games that is embarrassing.
     
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