Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Zed]

I think marketing has played a huge role. Paradox pushed PoE a lot more than the current publisher has pushed PoE2. Add to that the whole Kickstarter thing (vs. Fig) being a PR machine in itself.
It's obviously not the only answer, but I think it's a major factor.

 

[Zed]

Games on steam in general have low % achievement / completion. Someone's examples with Skyrim and Fallout 4 being high % are probably as high as games go on steam.

 

[Zed]

I think for sure that PoE2 has a higher staying power and will have better post-launch sales than PoE or Divinity. Because it's so much better.

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

That's a pointless comparison. Act 1 of DOS is huge, Act 1 in PoE is like 5 hours of content.
http://steamspy.com/app/291650 Pillars Playtime total: 21:00 (average) 07:46 (median)
http://steamspy.com/app/230230 D:OS Playtime total: 22:15 (average) 07:26 (median)

That's not relevant here though. We're talking about abandonment rates. PoE1 data indicates that almost half of the players give up literally within hours of starting, which is an absolute disaster. Half of their buyers are at the risk of taking a refund. Let that sink in.

DOS/DOS2 data on the other hand, doesn't suggest any tendencies that would be financially unhealthy for the company. A lot of people don't finish games.

 

[Roguey]

PoE1 data indicates that almost half of the players give up literally within hours of starting, which is an absolute disaster. Half of their buyers are at the risk of taking a refund. Let that sink in.

Look at the median, pal. Half of all D:OS and PoE players give up before 8 hours.

 

[fantadomat]

I think marketing has played a huge role. Paradox pushed PoE a lot more than the current publisher has pushed PoE2. Add to that the whole Kickstarter thing (vs. Fig) being a PR machine in itself.
It's obviously not the only answer, but I think it's a major factor.

If you give credits to paradox's marketing,then you must be insane. PoE sold that well because of the Kickstarter and nothing else,all the kickstaters sold well except numanuma.

I think for sure that PoE2 has a higher staying power and will have better post-launch sales than PoE or Divinity. Because it's so much better.

Not really,PoE 2 is a short mess with a lot of cut content. The first 20 hours are superior to both games but after that it becomes shit because you come to the conclusion that that was all the game have to offer. One interesting city and that is it. By this point it is worst than the first one. I don't think that 60 bucks is a good price for 20 hours of content in a rpg.

 

[ilitarist]

This playtime statistics is interesting. I expected most games to have as low playtime as DOS/POE as people in general mostly do not finish games.

But Fallout New Vegas has playtime total: 55:53 (average) 19:41 (median). So average person has completed FNV. Meanwhile Fallout 3: Playtime total: 13:35 (average) 05:32 (median). Fallout 4: playtime total: 101:05 (average) 54:11 (median). Not sure you can trust those numbers. Shows 500h time for Grimoire.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

I'll note that many of the RPG companies we're talking about are run by folks who came up in an era where RPG sequels outperformed the preceding game. In the 80s and 90s, that was the typical model, I suppose in large part because the market grew faster than the quantity of quality games.

It may be, but it seems that the most important decisions of these studios are rushed and poorly thought. I'm not saying they are dumb, just that they are poorly planned. Pushy people are doers, but they are also impulsive and prone to mistakes.

Moreover, there's a nontrivial risk that if you do some adjacent form of fantasy, you'll just be using the setting designers' second-best ideas. IMO that's why fantasy authors first books are so often their best. Vince has wisely decided to go to a different setting to avoid that risk (and his next setting, Inquisition ~Spain, would be another totally different setting). But as Vince has noted, his path entails a different risk: non-fantasy RPGs are a much harder sell. If instead of PoE2 they had made a scifi Pillars of Creation, who's to say it wouldn't have done even worse?

There are risks and there are risks. What makes me impatient is that developers that play safe always see one kind of risk and never think on the long term. This is so crystal clear to me that I get perplexed how people can fool themselves this way. Besides, notice how many liberties Sawyer took in the PoE franchise. If you are going to sell yourself, do it right. Don't try to fix what nobody asked you to fix and insert walls of purple prose that nobody is reading. You are making an unecessary risk, buddy.

The assertion that Obsidian never made a good game is insane. Obsidian rightly has three games in the Codex's top 20. For myself, MOTB is in the top five.

I mentioned rough gems. Hey, this is a compliment!

 

[onemananadhisdroid]

This was said many times before: stuff like Grimrock, Tyranny, Numanuma, W2, PoE, Expeditions, Underrail, etc... these are not million sellers, their core audience is in the range of 50-250k on Steam.

Did that really change hugely much, by the way? That core market back then probably wasn't any hugely bigger if you consider that for every Baldur's Gate surpassing the 1 million after like a year on the shelves, there was an Icewind Dale (and much smaller scale products by lesser known developers than the guys who OMG did Fallout!). That market is still there, it's whether you support it. And how much products it can handle...

Spot on in my book about PoE2. The big kicker in 2012 was the guys behind some of the IE games going back to that style of play. "More of the same but bigger" doesn't have the same pulling power. Whilst that was attributed to Fig some, the number of backers was basically slashed in half too. That said, after a week PoE was hovering around 200k players afaik. It took until end of the year for them to announce 500k being sold. If they targeted for much higher, that'd be unreasonable.

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

It's worth noting that first game had 71,000 backers, many of them with multiple copies. Deadfire has 33,000. So it is not as much behind the first game as it appears at the first glance.

 

[Volrath]

Doing a figstarter was retarded to begin with. It all went downhill from there.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

Did that really change hugely much, by the way? That core market back then probably wasn't any hugely bigger if you consider that for every Baldur's Gate surpassing the 1 million after like a year on the shelves, there was an Icewind Dale (and much smaller scale products by lesser known developers than the guys who OMG did Fallout!). That market is still there.

No, it is not. The people who bought BG grew up and now most of them don't have the time or interest in cRPGs. The new generation was hijacked by other (more popular) genres. So yeah, selling a million units with PoE is a sort of miracle that is not representative of the actual cRPG players out there.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

The same is true for doing a new ruleset.

Or they could have used for free the 3.5e version that Realms Beyond is going to use it. What a waste of resources.

Doing a figstarter was retarded to begin with. It all went downhill from there.

This decision was made here, in the moment this picture was taken.

 

[imweasel]

I think it is because the novelty effect wore of. Uncle Vince got it right.

Spoiler

As you probably noticed a number of indie and not so indie sequels have done very poorly lately, selling anywhere from 10 to 30% of the original title - XCOM2, Banner's Saga 2, Legend of Grimrock 2, Blackguards 2, etc. My explanation of this phenomenon is that unless you have a AAA blockbuster with massive appeal, you don't go for a sequel because it would never sell as much as the original because the public perspective would be "it's more of the same".

Now, let's be optimistic and assume that the breakdown goes something like that (based on the reviews and impressions):

- core supporters - 25% - love it, want more
- core haters - 10% - fucking hate it, will never buy another ITS game again
- kinda liked it - 50% - liked it but ... This "but" ranges from minor to major issues
- meh - 15% - played for a couple of hours and moved on, no strong emotions, no urge to play more

So if we make AoD 2, we get the core supporters and some % of the kinda liked it camp. We'll also get some new players, probably no more than 20%. So our best case scenario is selling 3/4 of what AoD sold, worst case - less than half. Thus moving to a brand new setting with different systems but the same core design is the safest bet even though it looks like the riskiest.
...
Back in June:

Original vs sequel:

Legend of Grimrock: 936,949 vs 246,684
Blackguards: 471,616 vs 178,528
XCOM: 3,304,215 vs 823,999
Shadowrun: 723,457 vs 613,408 vs 188,034 (arguably Hong Kong was the best iteration but few people cared at this point)
The Banner Saga: 592,139 vs 43,826

Success of the first game often fools developers into thinking that they can do even better or at least as good with a second 'bigger and better' game, but it's rarely the case. The only exceptions to the rule are games that offer building, sandbox, and well-executed killing loop activities that people never seem to be tired of. Darkest Dungeon is a fucking monster but I bet if they go for a sequel it will sell less than a third of the original.

That isn't the whole picture as there are many more factors regarding sales (of sequels): gamer ratings of the sequel, release date, competing games, etc.

For example, X-Com 2 outsold X-Com 1 on release (500K in the first week on Steam!), but the sequel wasn't as well received judging from gamer ratings on Steam (94% vs. 80%). That is probably the ultimate factor as to why sales dropped.

We saw something similar happen with Mass Effect 3. The game sold like hotcakes in the first week (Bioware's fastest selling game ever) and then watched sales drop like a rock because of the extremely negative fan reception.

 

[Elex]

first week is based on previous game.

 

[FreeKaner]

If Feargus does not cut support for this game and continues support during DLC period it can sell over time, possibly even more than PoE1.

However knowing Feargus, especially after their comments on how WM was a net loss. They will likely just get DLCs out and cut support then look for their future endeavours. This game will be underwhelming and sell as such.

 

[HanoverF]

PC release was just a dry run for the true console release anyway. Beta 2.0

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

For example, X-Com 2 outsold X-Com 1 on release (500K in the first week on Steam!), but the sequel wasn't as well received judging from gamer ratings on Steam (94% vs. 80%). That is probably the ultimate factor as to why sales dropped.

We saw something similar happen with Mass Effect 3. The game sold like hotcakes in the first week (Bioware's fastest selling game ever) and then watched sales drop like a rock because of the extremely negative fan reception.

By your logic, PoE2 sales will increase because the reviews are very positive on steam.

 

[imweasel]

By your logic, PoE2 sales will increase because the reviews are very positive on steam.

Nah man, VD is mostly right (completely right?) when it comes to PoE, but that is not the whole picture and certainly not so for every game.

BTW, the gamer reception of PoE 2 on Steam is lower than that of PoE. That is a factor that shouldn't be ignored.

 

[fantadomat]

I don't get all the people that are saying that it will sell overtime. What it matters in this business is the first two three weeks,not two years down the road and 10 humble bundles later. You can't do such business with the expectation that a year later it will payout. The game is pretty much a flop,mainly because of wasted money in the development process and unnecessary shit.

 

[Teut Busnet]

Games on steam in general have low % achievement / completion. Someone's examples with Skyrim and Fallout 4 being high % are probably as high as games go on steam.

Yeah.

I checked the global achievements for Battle Brothers recently and only 77% even finished the first contract (killing Hogart) wich should take under 15 minutes, less than 10% beat an endgame crisis.

It's madness.

 

[fantadomat]

Games on steam in general have low % achievement / completion. Someone's examples with Skyrim and Fallout 4 being high % are probably as high as games go on steam.

Yeah.

I checked the global achievements for Battle Brothers recently and only 77% even finished the first contract (killing Hogart) wich should take under 15 minutes, less than 10% beat an endgame crisis.

It's madness.

BB gets very repetitive after a few battles. It is a good game but not one where you pump yourself to finish it. I played a few hours and got bored,the game have huge potential but it is very repetitive.

 

[Teut Busnet]

Games on steam in general have low % achievement / completion. Someone's examples with Skyrim and Fallout 4 being high % are probably as high as games go on steam.

Yeah.

I checked the global achievements for Battle Brothers recently and only 77% even finished the first contract (killing Hogart) wich should take under 15 minutes, less than 10% beat an endgame crisis.

It's madness.

BB gets very repetitive after a few battles. It is a good game but not one where you pump yourself to finish it. I played a few hours and got bored,the game have huge potential but it is very repetitive.

It's certainly a game that divides minds and the lost potential is tragic - but almost a quarter of players couldn't or wouldn't stick with it for 15 minutes.

You should at least give it a try, no? Not only BB but every game you were interested in enough to buy it.

 

[Vault Dweller]

That isn't the whole picture as there are many more factors regarding sales (of sequels): gamer ratings of the sequel, release date, competing games, etc.

For example, X-Com 2 outsold X-Com 1 on release (500K in the first week on Steam!), but the sequel wasn't as well received judging from gamer ratings on Steam (94% vs. 80%). That is probably the ultimate factor as to why sales dropped.

Or 500k players represent the core audience that couldn't wait for the sequel to arrive (whereas XCOM 1 arrived as a brand new reboot) and the rest of XCOM players didn't seem to care that much about it, which also explains the lower rating.

We saw something similar happen with Mass Effect 3. The game sold like hotcakes in the first week (Bioware's fastest selling game ever) and then watched sales drop like a rock because of the extremely negative fan reception.

That's something entirely different. Mass Effect 3 (apparently) was a very half-assed game and once the players realized it, its sales dropped. XCOM 2 and Legend of Grimrock 2 were better games, or at least well-designed ones.

 

[Sentinel]

I think it is because the novelty effect wore of. Uncle Vince got it right.

Spoiler

As you probably noticed a number of indie and not so indie sequels have done very poorly lately, selling anywhere from 10 to 30% of the original title - XCOM2, Banner's Saga 2, Legend of Grimrock 2, Blackguards 2, etc. My explanation of this phenomenon is that unless you have a AAA blockbuster with massive appeal, you don't go for a sequel because it would never sell as much as the original because the public perspective would be "it's more of the same".

Now, let's be optimistic and assume that the breakdown goes something like that (based on the reviews and impressions):

- core supporters - 25% - love it, want more
- core haters - 10% - fucking hate it, will never buy another ITS game again
- kinda liked it - 50% - liked it but ... This "but" ranges from minor to major issues
- meh - 15% - played for a couple of hours and moved on, no strong emotions, no urge to play more

So if we make AoD 2, we get the core supporters and some % of the kinda liked it camp. We'll also get some new players, probably no more than 20%. So our best case scenario is selling 3/4 of what AoD sold, worst case - less than half. Thus moving to a brand new setting with different systems but the same core design is the safest bet even though it looks like the riskiest.
...
Back in June:

Original vs sequel:

Legend of Grimrock: 936,949 vs 246,684
Blackguards: 471,616 vs 178,528
XCOM: 3,304,215 vs 823,999
Shadowrun: 723,457 vs 613,408 vs 188,034 (arguably Hong Kong was the best iteration but few people cared at this point)
The Banner Saga: 592,139 vs 43,826

Success of the first game often fools developers into thinking that they can do even better or at least as good with a second 'bigger and better' game, but it's rarely the case. The only exceptions to the rule are games that offer building, sandbox, and well-executed killing loop activities that people never seem to be tired of. Darkest Dungeon is a fucking monster but I bet if they go for a sequel it will sell less than a third of the original.

That isn't the whole picture as there are many more factors regarding sales (of sequels): gamer ratings of the sequel, release date, competing games, etc.

For example, X-Com 2 outsold X-Com 1 on release (500K in the first week on Steam!), but the sequel wasn't as well received judging from gamer ratings on Steam (94% vs. 80%). That is probably the ultimate factor as to why sales dropped.

We saw something similar happen with Mass Effect 3. The game sold like hotcakes in the first week (Bioware's fastest selling game ever) and then watched sales drop like a rock because of the extremely negative fan reception.

XCOM2 had tons of problems at release, including performance issues that were only solved with an expansion pack release (which you had to buy). The people that leave negative reviews at release don't bother changing it back.