Incline The Second Video Game Crash.

[DragoFireheart]

Brief history lesson:

https://www.bugsplat.com/great-video-game-crash-1983

In 1983 the video game industry was hit with a recession that nearly spelled the end of video games for an entire generation. Critics were calling video gaming a fad and many prominent companies went bankrupt or stopped making games entirely. This recession is known as the Great North American Video Game Crash.

...

What caused the Crash?
The first major problem contributing to the Crash was an absurd over saturation in the video game console market in North America. By 1983, gamers had dozens of console choices to pick from. This created a situation of confusion for the average customer. Each console came with its own set of games from the company that manufactured it, as well as an expansive web of third-party games.

...

A second problem was that, after the success the video game industry experienced in the late 70’s and early 80’s, many companies were rushing to produce video games as quickly as possible.

...

The team making E.T. was famously only given six weeks to be developed, tested, and market the game before it was shipped out for the holiday season. The video game they produced had little to do with the actual movie and was an immediate failure. Millions of copies were never sold and were buried in a landfill in New Mexico.

So basically the first crash was a result of too many shitty games and shitty consoles being made.

What I have been watching for is a second video game crash. My theory is, within the context of our generation, these factors will contribute to the second video game crash:

- More low quality games being made.

- Mobile market being over-saturated with trash games sucking away market from the console/PC market.

- Nickle-and-dime schemes will reach a critical mass that will cause consumers to abandon games.

- Too many established franchises dying, causing consumers to lose faith in games.

 

[LESS T_T]

Sure, there are massively more low-effort games being released than 80s, but I don't think they're flooding and diluting the market as they were.

Things are more established than 80s, people now generally know what to expect from video games and where to find games they might like, there are platform holders with tighter quality control (albeit loosened a bit in this generation), there are a number of multi-billion dollar game companies. And there are enough high-quality (not necessarily "incline" but in terms of base production quality) games coming out, there are diverse platforms and audiences for games than ever.

Well iif anything, it's more of Codexian's crashed dream.

 

[Jokzore]

Video games are no longer the nerd-niche they used to be. Gamers are such a wide demographic today that a game will always find customers no matter what, making a crash virtually impossible.

Also games are in a better spot than they have ever been, ever. The industry is making money hand over fist, there's a wide variety of genres, developers all over the world, big publishers, small publishers, big budget production, indie development, conventions, cosplay, merch, movies, forums, chatrooms, websites, mods. There's never been a better time to be a gamer.

I feel most of your negativity stems from the fact things aren't moving in the direction you'd like, so you and people like you might stop buying/playing games, but the vast majority of gamers wont.

Don't get me wrong, ''low quality'', ''nickle and dime schemes'', I'm not a fan of those either, but it's not like there isn't an infinite sea of alternatives out there. I stopped playing EA and Ubisoft games years ago purely out of principle (my last one was Mass Effect 3) and I still have a backlog with dozens of games I feel like I'll never find the time to play.

 

[Hobo Elf]

Don't get me wrong, ''low quality'', ''nickle and dime schemes'', I'm not a fan of those either, but it's not like there isn't an infinite sea of alternatives out there

You're really missing the point of the issue at hand here. It's becoming increasingly difficult to find those worthwhile games when they get drowned under a tidal wave of utter garbage. And now with the Chinese market being opened up to the world we're getting even more trash to wade through to find something that's good. It's not like back when the crash happened there weren't good games to play either, it was simply too hard to find them.

 

[Humanity has risen!]

You are missing the biggest reason why there won't be a crash: online shopping makes it so companies are not as dependent on tight retail space anymore.

 

[Jokzore]

Don't get me wrong, ''low quality'', ''nickle and dime schemes'', I'm not a fan of those either, but it's not like there isn't an infinite sea of alternatives out there

You're really missing the point of the issue at hand here. It's becoming increasingly difficult to find those worthwhile games when they get drowned under a tidal wave of utter garbage. And now with the Chinese market being opened up to the world we're getting even more trash to wade through to find something that's good. It's not like back when the crash happened there weren't good games to play either, it was simply too hard to find them.

YouTube, Twitch, Steam, news sites, Codex... None of those existed back then, the only taste of a game you got before buying it was whatever is written/drawn on the box. I don't think that discoverability is a problem at all today, there's thousands of different sources you can use to find, view and preview games.

 

[DragoFireheart]

You are missing the biggest reason why there won't be a crash: online shopping makes it so companies are not as dependent on tight retail space anymore.

The Second Video Game crash can happen despite the online accessibility of games. Being able to easily find shit won't make that shit any better.

You're really missing the point of the issue at hand here. It's becoming increasingly difficult to find those worthwhile games when they get drowned under a tidal wave of utter garbage. And now with the Chinese market being opened up to the world we're getting even more trash to wade through to find something that's good. It's not like back when the crash happened there weren't good games to play either, it was simply too hard to find them.

Completely nailed it.

The ratio of bad-to-good games will reach that threshold and that will be the final trigger for the crash. The other factors I listed will help accelerate and/or contribute to the crash.

I actually suspect the opposite may occur in regards to platforms compared to the First Crash: we may reach a point where 1-2 consoles (next gen), mobile platform and PC will be your only options. Mobile markets have evolved as much as possible at this point: they can only become more shitty because their model does not encourage the creation of good games.

A point of contention that many don't want to admit is that PC and consoles are heavily linked together so much so that they are one in the same for market purposes. Know how PCMR always jokes that if consoles weren't so shitty they could have good games? Well a large number of games made get ported to PCs.

At some point once the Second Video Game Crash is ready to happen (I predict within 5-8 years), the market choices will boil down to:

-Console/PC (making games specifically for PC platform will no longer be profitable)

-Mobile games.

Too few platforms will inherently limit game variety. Once game variety is limited the quality will drop. Once the quality finally drops, Second Video Game Crash.

 

[wyes gull]

You should refer to your own quote:

Critics were calling video gaming a fad (...)

Legitimately so. They -were- a fad that survived on the fringes and that could be supplanted by a new toy that unwary consumers would assume be of a higher value for money. Especially since "bad" games weren't just buggy, they might fail to function at all, which is something people seem to forget. Nowadays, though? When their business supplants that of Hollywood? Not so much, and not only because the market's that much bigger but because the consumer base now has 1 generation's experience when it comes to purchasing the games. Non-working games won't fly.

Sure there's nickle & diming and low effort trash. And maybe AAA games are spending too much, becoming too predictable, not innovating enough. Maybe indies are saturating the market. So what? Big studios will course-correct, shutting subsidiaries down, coming up with new schemes and resurrecting another old franchise; indies will go under and start working at Starbucks as some random university shits out another 20 of them; scams will be reported and their purveyors' reputations tarnished and the abused will learn a new lesson. The market will shift to what the consumer is willing to spend on/put up with and life will go on.

But to suggest a crash? What are people that play games going to do instead? Buy jump ropes and hula-hoops and go outside? Ludicrous.

 

[DragoFireheart]

You should refer to your own quote:

Those guys are actually a representation of the denial gamers are living in. If anything that quote helps support my views and people like them will be completely taken by surprise when (not if) the crash happens.

I feel most of your negativity stems from the fact things aren't moving in the direction you'd like, so you and people like you might stop buying/playing games, but the vast majority of gamers wont.

Quite the opposite. I still find games I want to and plan to enjoy. If anything it's negativity of others that supports my claims.

Gamers rejecting loot boxes from EA is a sign that the industry does not want the direction it is going in. The overall quality of games has been on a downward slope since the early/mid 2000s.

 

[Strange Fellow]

The overall quality of games has been on a downward slope since the early/mid 2000s.

And the popularity of the hobby has soared. There's no correlation.

 

[Hobo Elf]

YouTube, Twitch, Steam, news sites, Codex... None of those existed back then, the only taste of a game you got before buying it was whatever is written/drawn on the box. I don't think that discoverability is a problem at all today, there's thousands of different sources you can use to find, view and preview games.

There may be more ways to look for stuff, but it's not getting any easier to find anything good because there's more shit being made now than ever before. Youtube, Twitch and news sites are pretty bad for visibility since it's mostly just the popular stuff that will get featured. Sometimes some more obscure stuff can make its way to youtube or even news sites, but that's pretty rare. Twitch is the worst since most people just go there to watch people play the handful of current FOTM online games. There's no fucking way you're going to find some obscure gem on twitch so why even bring that up? Even on the Codex only the most popular games get the most visibility and you have to dig around to find some more obscure stuff.

 

[wyes gull]

Those guys are actually a representation of the denial gamers are living in.

What? I thought they were supposed to be a history lesson.

I still find games I want to and plan to enjoy. If anything it's negativity of others that supports my claims.

The overall quality of games has been on a downward slope since the early/mid 2000s.

Again, wot? Which one is it? And what does your opinion on the quality of games matter? It's the general public's willingness to buy them what dictates whether or not a crash is going to happen.

 

[Jokzore]

Gamers rejecting loot boxes from EA is a sign that the industry does not want the direction it is going in.

1. Battlefront 2 still sold an absurd amount of copies, even with a poorly received first game.
2. Even if you don't buy a single game with lootboxes you'll still have plenty of games to occupy you.

Sometimes some more obscure stuff can make its way to youtube or even news sites, but that's pretty rare.

That depends on who you watch. Most big name youtubers and streamers play whatever FOTM is, but those people you watch for their personality, not for the game. If you want to find more niche titles then there's plenty of channels/people/series that happily cover them. They don't get 70k concurrent viewers or 1M plays on youtube, but they're out there and you just need to look them up if you're interested in discovering games.

Yes, the popular stuff is always going to be the most visible, but that's always been true and nothing is going to change that. It also applies to movies and books and comics yet niche titles still managed to get published and consumed and today there's more of them than ever.

EDIT: Also I don't see how this fits into the video game crash narrative. You have problems finding games you want to play, sure, but clearly the majority of gamers don't have this issue. As I've said, the industry is bigger than it ever was and each new blockbuster-game seems to be outselling the last one.

 

[Humanity has risen!]

You are missing the biggest reason why there won't be a crash: online shopping makes it so companies are not as dependent on tight retail space anymore.

The Second Video Game crash can happen despite the online accessibility of games. Being able to easily find shit won't make that shit any better.

You're really missing the point of the issue at hand here. It's becoming increasingly difficult to find those worthwhile games when they get drowned under a tidal wave of utter garbage. And now with the Chinese market being opened up to the world we're getting even more trash to wade through to find something that's good. It's not like back when the crash happened there weren't good games to play either, it was simply too hard to find them.

Completely nailed it.

The ratio of bad-to-good games will reach that threshold and that will be the final trigger for the crash. The other factors I listed will help accelerate and/or contribute to the crash.

I actually suspect the opposite may occur in regards to platforms compared to the First Crash: we may reach a point where 1-2 consoles (next gen), mobile platform and PC will be your only options. Mobile markets have evolved as much as possible at this point: they can only become more shitty because their model does not encourage the creation of good games.

A point of contention that many don't want to admit is that PC and consoles are heavily linked together so much so that they are one in the same for market purposes. Know how PCMR always jokes that if consoles weren't so shitty they could have good games? Well a large number of games made get ported to PCs.

At some point once the Second Video Game Crash is ready to happen (I predict within 5-8 years), the market choices will boil down to:

-Console/PC (making games specifically for PC platform will no longer be profitable)

-Mobile games.

Too few platforms will inherently limit game variety. Once game variety is limited the quality will drop. Once the quality finally drops, Second Video Game Crash.

The problem with your theory is that blockbuster game sales are very stable and keep slightly increasing year after year, showing no sign of dying down. That wasn't the case in the early eighties.

If all the trash gets buried in app and online stores, it doesn't prevent many games from finding an audience and still being more than enough to subsist the industry, because people with niche tastes are also not limited anymore by retailers and their limited shelf space.

People who like wargames, flight simulators, management simulators, RPGs, all have avenues to buy games, and developers catering to such niche tastes still turn a profit.

 

[Strange Fellow]

One thing I think could happen is a transition towards an online subscription-based model that gives access to a library of games, including exclusive access to all new releases. Like EA's Origin Access service, but more intrusive. In that case, games that follow the current "traditional" publishing model could fall by the wayside. Something like that would at least upset the market dynamics drastically. Whether it could be considered a "crash", though, I don't know.

 

[Jokzore]

One thing I think could happen is a transition towards an online subscription-based model that gives access to a library of games, including exclusive access to all new releases. Like EA's Origin Access service, but more intrusive. In that case, games that follow the current "traditional" publishing model could fall by the wayside. Something like that would at least upset the market dynamics drastically. Whether it could be considered a "crash", though, I don't know.

What is cloud gaming ?

 

[Strange Fellow]

One thing I think could happen is a transition towards an online subscription-based model that gives access to a library of games, including exclusive access to all new releases. Like EA's Origin Access service, but more intrusive. In that case, games that follow the current "traditional" publishing model could fall by the wayside. Something like that would at least upset the market dynamics drastically. Whether it could be considered a "crash", though, I don't know.

What is cloud gaming ?

I have no idea, are you saying it's already a thing? Regardless, it would still need exclusive big budget releases to play out like I described.

 

[Mustawd]

The crash happened fir a variety of reasons that existed back then, but don’t exist today.

1. Large number of consoles. If you have a PC and one console, chances are you already have access to 80% of all commercially available games. And that only gets higher when you consider everyone has a cell phone nowadays.

2. Home video gaming was new. Decades after the crash the video game industry is a lot more mature and the products are an accepted form of entertainment.

3. Too many games as a result of rushing development and in extremely short production cycles. Today we do truly have a huge influx of games, but it’s due to different reasons than during the crash.

I don’t see a crash coming. I see consolidation/failure of nedium sized studios. Especially as tools get better and easier for a small indy shop to use and make games.

 

[DragoFireheart]

If all the trash gets buried in app and online stores, it doesn't prevent many games from finding an audience and still being more than enough to subsist the industry, because people with niche tastes are also not limited anymore by retailers and their limited shelf space.

Your forgot the wild card element: political ideologies infecting those niche areas.

Remember one of my points: too many established franchises dying, causing consumers to lose faith.

SJWs will absolutely contribute to the crash. It won't be the sole reason or cause, but it will exasperate the issue.

Video game sales being solid now is fine, but the recent lootbox drama is the first signs of a weakening game industry. Remember that Activision also patented their own lootbox design.

And the popularity of the hobby has soared. There's no correlation.

The Wii was popular once but the Wii U ended up crashing. Popularity shouldn't be the only metric to measure an industries health.

Games were not popular back in the 80s/90s but look were we are. Consumer base that is willing to spend money is what drives an industry.

 

[Strange Fellow]

Popularity shouldn't be the only metric to measure an industries health.

But it is. In the end, nothing else matters. Companies will keep producing video games as long as people keep buying them. You may argue that people will stop buying them, but that contradicts the above quote.

Games were not popular back in the 80s/90s but look were we are. Consumer base that is willing to spend money is what drives an industry.

Exactly. Maybe the game industry has achieved market saturation, but I honestly doubt it, especially since video games are still being marketed, by actual marketing and journalists alike, as fresh goods with expiration dates.

 

[DragoFireheart]

But it is. In the end, nothing else matters. Companies will keep producing video games as long as people keep buying them. You may argue that people will stop buying them, but that contradicts the above quote.

Exactly. Maybe the game industry has achieved market saturation, but I honestly doubt it, especially since video games are still being marketed, by actual marketing and journalists alike, as fresh goods with expiration dates.

No.

Something being popular does not mean companies care about it.

Something can be popular and not profitable.

 

[Strange Fellow]

But it is. In the end, nothing else matters. Companies will keep producing video games as long as people keep buying them. You may argue that people will stop buying them, but that contradicts the above quote.

Exactly. Maybe the game industry has achieved market saturation, but I honestly doubt it, especially since video games are still being marketed, by actual marketing and journalists alike, as fresh goods with expiration dates.

No.

Something being popular does not mean companies care about it.

Something can be popular and not profitable.

Stuff that doesn't require you to pay for it in order to enjoy it, sure. Video games are not that.

 

[DragoFireheart]

Stuff that doesn't require you to pay for it in order to enjoy it, sure. Video games are not that.

Currently that is the case.

But we may reach a point where new games are so saturated of shit that people will not buy them.

But what of those that enjoy video games? What will they do?

They will just fallback on the library of old games, emulators, find free games, etc.

 

[Strange Fellow]

And we will be vindicated at last.
Anyway, I envy your optimism that Joe Consumer will get smart. The lie that old games become obsolete is perpetuated so often that I don't see the mainstream audience challenging it any time soon.

 

[Dodo1610]

The industry is thriving and will continue to do so. Look at EA's Ubisoft's or Activison's financial reports, there is no evidence whatsoever that suggest there is a crash coming soon. Sure doom saying is fun but it's the figures just do not support it.