Putting the 'role' back in role-playing games since 2002.
Donate to Codex
Good Old Games
  • Welcome to rpgcodex.net, a site dedicated to discussing computer based role-playing games in a free and open fashion. We're less strict than other forums, but please refer to the rules.

    "This message is awaiting moderator approval": All new users must pass through our moderation queue before they will be able to post normally. Until your account has "passed" your posts will only be visible to yourself (and moderators) until they are approved. Give us a week to get around to approving / deleting / ignoring your mundane opinion on crap before hassling us about it. Once you have passed the moderation period (think of it as a test), you will be able to post normally, just like all the other retards.

Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

Roguey

Codex Staff
Staff Member
Sawyerite
Joined
May 29, 2010
Messages
35,800
I figured the megathread could do without this topic interrupting all the nuanced discussions of the writing, mechanics, and homosexuality.

A week after release and Steamspy is estimating sales are in the 100-200k range. The first one had estimated sales of 200-260k after the same amount of time.

The Sunday after release is pretty much always when you'll see the most players. Deadfire's is 22,723 (reflected at https://store.steampowered.com/stats/ though not recorded at Steam Charts yet). PoE's was 41,787. Shadowrun Returns beats it with 24,242 and even ELEX barely maintains its German supremacy with 22,871. However, it's not a total flop. Obviously it's doing better than Tides of Numenera and Tyranny, but it also beats Wasteland 2's record of 18,576 and Divinity: Original Sin's record of 21,953 and both of those were pretty successful. Howeverrr they didn't significantly inflate their budgets with full voice acting right out of the gate (though both did eventually, with terrible results :)), awesomer graphics (though D:OS is no slouch in this area and Wasteland 2 certainly put in a lot of work to improve them with the director's cut), or use deliberately dumbed-down/streamlined mechanics in a foolish attempt to win over a wider audience. And of course no one is thrilled when a sequel, particularly the first Black Isle/Obsidian sequel not constrained by a slamdunk schedule or budget, doesn't outperform or even match its predecessor.

I suppose Sawyer's now been stripped of his "hitmaker" title, so he won't be getting his turn-based historical RPG. He might have seen the writing on the wall, hence the "I'm burned out and won't be directing projects for a while" and "full voice acting was the owners' idea, I had nothing to do with it" statements from a while back. I imagine Avellone is pleased that the owners are getting burned, though I'm reasonably confident that his week of forum posts probably only cost them dozens/hundreds/possibly thousands of sales, whereas the gap between what they wanted and what they got is in the hundreds of thousands. Now Obsidian's stuck doing what Bioware did after Dragon Age II and what McComb did after Tides of Numenera: say "Yeah, well the CRITICS love it."
poeii-deadfire-accolades.jpg
 

Sentinel

Arcane
Joined
Nov 18, 2015
Messages
6,666
Location
Ommadawn
I suppose Sawyer's now been stripped of his "hitmaker" title, so he won't be getting his turn-based historical RPG.
I never believed he would get it either way. Especially after recent revelations by MCA, I believe Feargus only said "yeah sure" to shut him up and keep him motivated. I don't think Feargus ever had a lot of interest in the isometric cRPG wave, he just used it to save the company.
 

Jokzore

Arbiter
Joined
Mar 18, 2017
Messages
623
How could anyone expect big launch numbers from a sequel to a game that was mediocre at best. Couple that with them already announcing 3xDLC in the near future.

Why the fuck should anyone buy this right now? It's not a hotly anticipated title.

I bet there's a lot of people out there (me included) waiting for the Ultimate-GoTY-Director Cut Edition-- Or as I like to call it The Completed Game Edition.
 

Lahey

Laheyist
Patron
Joined
Jun 10, 2017
Messages
1,467
Grab the Codex by the pussy
Now Obsidian's stuck doing what Bioware did after Dragon Age II and what McComb did after Tides of Numenera: say "Yeah, well the CRITICS love it."
  • critics love it
  • muh marketing
  • poor release window
  • plebs can't into incline
  • sales are inverse to True Quality™
  • people are waiting for complete edition
  • its got legs
  • muh MCA
  • sales don't matter
Am I missing any?
 

Big Wrangle

Guest
From what I recall only a small percentage of PoE owners bothered with completing White March in the first place, so these DLCs won't really do shit until a Complete Edition is out. If this is an actual flop, that "The Outer Worlds" game is the last card for Obsidian. But honestly, they'll break even if I'm to guess.
Until the company comments further, I don't think there is much to say.
 
Joined
Jan 18, 2018
Messages
1,301
Grab the Codex by the pussy
However, it's not a total flop. it also beats Divinity: Original Sin's record of 21,953
That's a good point. I was reading this piece to have an idea of how much is needed to break even. Not much.

And it's already approaching profitability, Larian boss Swen Vincke told Eurogamer. Divinity: Original Sin cost around €4m to make. ... For Larian, which as a Belgian studio works in euros, its rule of thumb is to take the dollars generated then half that figure it to arrive at a euro amount. So, if a game makes $100,000, the studio makes €50,000. Divinity: Original Sin costs $39.99. If it's sold 160,000 copies, that's $6.39m in revenue. Half that and we get €3.19m (£2.5m), which means the project is well on its way to breaking even.
Now you need to consider how much PoE2 cost. Probably less than D:OS. They are probably breaking even already.
 

Roguey

Codex Staff
Staff Member
Sawyerite
Joined
May 29, 2010
Messages
35,800
D:OS also used some creative accounting with regard to its budget since a lot of the cost that went into making its engine went over to Dragon Commander, which was sacrificed with an early release to make D:OS better. :M
 

Morkar Left

Guest
How could anyone expect big launch numbers from a sequel to a game that was mediocre at best. Couple that with them already announcing 3xDLC in the near future.

Why the fuck should anyone buy this right now? It's not a hotly anticipated title.

I bet there's a lot of people out there (me included) waiting for the Ultimate-GoTY-Director Cut Edition-- Or as I like to call it The Completed Game Edition.

Yeah, exactly. I guess the game will sell over time. But it doesn't seem to be a hit.
 

Jokzore

Arbiter
Joined
Mar 18, 2017
Messages
623
From what I recall only a small percentage of PoE owners bothered with completing White March in the first place

Who's brilliant idea was it to stick the expansion in middle of the vanilla game? That's the sole reason I refused to play it. I've never been so bored by a video game (little did i know how Numanuma would turn out), yet they expect me to play through half of it AGAIN just so I can potentially, maybe experience some incline? No thx Obsidian, you don't have enough goodwill to convince me of that.
 
Self-Ejected

aweigh

Self-Ejected
Joined
Aug 23, 2005
Messages
17,978
Location
Florida
I'm guessing it'll be do well enough that it allows the company to continue making RPGs, probably even isometric RPGs, however it won't sell enough to make PoE 3 viable.

This is probably the last time we'll ever get to romance godlike cloacas.
 

Bonerbill

Augur
Joined
Nov 25, 2013
Messages
302
Location
North Carolina
The numbers are actually better than I expected; I thought it was going to do worse. I guess it will do well enough overtime, but it looks like the next Pillars game will probably be a different style of RPG all together.
 

Morkar Left

Guest
From what I recall only a small percentage of PoE owners bothered with completing White March in the first place

Who's brilliant idea was it to stick the expansion in middle of the vanilla game? That's the sole reason I refused to play it. I've never been so bored by a video game (little did i know how Numanuma would turn out), yet they expect me to play through half of it AGAIN just so I can potentially, maybe experience some incline? No thx Obsidian, you don't have enough goodwill to convince me of that.

You could just load an older safe and play from there?
 

KateMicucci

Arcane
Joined
Sep 2, 2017
Messages
1,676
I'm guessing it'll be do well enough that it allows the company to continue making RPGs, probably even isometric RPGs, however it won't sell enough to make PoE 3 viable.

This is probably the last time we'll ever get to romance godlike cloacas.
Thank God.
 

PrettyDeadman

Guest
From what I recall only a small percentage of PoE owners bothered with completing White March in the first place

Who's brilliant idea was it to stick the expansion in middle of the vanilla game? That's the sole reason I refused to play it. I've never been so bored by a video game (little did i know how Numanuma would turn out), yet they expect me to play through half of it AGAIN just so I can potentially, maybe experience some incline? No thx Obsidian, you don't have enough goodwill to convince me of that.
Underrail does exactly that.
 

The Great ThunThun*

How DARE you!?
Patron
Joined
Mar 8, 2018
Messages
583
Pathfinder: Wrath
From what I recall only a small percentage of PoE owners bothered with completing White March in the first place

Who's brilliant idea was it to stick the expansion in middle of the vanilla game? That's the sole reason I refused to play it. I've never been so bored by a video game (little did i know how Numanuma would turn out), yet they expect me to play through half of it AGAIN just so I can potentially, maybe experience some incline? No thx Obsidian, you don't have enough goodwill to convince me of that.
Underrail does exactly that.


Good point. But Underrail is fun. So no one actually minds playing it again. PoE, I could not do that once.
 

PrettyDeadman

Guest
I figured the megathread could do without this topic interrupting all the nuanced discussions of the writing, mechanics, and homosexuality.

A week after release and Steamspy is estimating sales are in the 100-200k range. The first one had estimated sales of 200-260k after the same amount of time.

The Sunday after release is pretty much always when you'll see the most players. Deadfire's is 22,723 (reflected at https://store.steampowered.com/stats/ though not recorded at Steam Charts yet). PoE's was 41,787. Shadowrun Returns beats it with 24,242 and even ELEX barely maintains its German supremacy with 22,871. However, it's not a total flop. Obviously it's doing better than Tides of Numenera and Tyranny, but it also beats Wasteland 2's record of 18,576 and Divinity: Original Sin's record of 21,953 and both of those were pretty successful. Howeverrr they didn't significantly inflate their budgets with full voice acting right out of the gate (though both did eventually, with terrible results :)), awesomer graphics (though D:OS is no slouch in this area and Wasteland 2 certainly put in a lot of work to improve them with the director's cut), or use deliberately dumbed-down/streamlined mechanics in a foolish attempt to win over a wider audience. And of course no one is thrilled when a sequel, particularly the first Black Isle/Obsidian sequel not constrained by a slamdunk schedule or budget, doesn't outperform or even match its predecessor.

I suppose Sawyer's now been stripped of his "hitmaker" title, so he won't be getting his turn-based historical RPG. He might have seen the writing on the wall, hence the "I'm burned out and won't be directing projects for a while" and "full voice acting was the owners' idea, I had nothing to do with it" statements from a while back. I imagine Avellone is pleased that the owners are getting burned, though I'm reasonably confident that his week of forum posts probably only cost them dozens/hundreds/possibly thousands of sales, whereas the gap between what they wanted and what they got is in the hundreds of thousands. Now Obsidian's stuck doing what Bioware did after Dragon Age II and what McComb did after Tides of Numenera: say "Yeah, well the CRITICS love it."


I had decided to stay out of the discussion in general, but these are quite valid points. Except, I don't think there is a reason to give out on PoE2 so fast. It most definitely won't be a flop. Its real problem is its mediocrity. Despite what the "critics" are saying and "consensus" on the codex, it's not that great a game. It is a perfectly passable, valid game, just like PoE, and an improvement on that. Still, it has managed to retain its tiredness. It is a ship trying to sail on the winds of BG nostalgia, and that can take it only thus far. What are its own merits? Very little. The setting is quite banal, the mechanics are a variation on D&D stuff and the writing Bioware-lite. It does nothing that it can proudly say is its own thing. And, that I think is going to kill it in the long run. It will end up being another big RPG that few manage to finish, just like PoE. It will sell alright, but diminishing the brand at every iteration.

You seem to think that given a chance, Sawyer will make a great TB RPG. I have my doubts. But yeah, if this ship sinks, he sinks with it.


Do you think Black Geyser is going to be a better game, or it just falls into the same pitfall as POE (being mediocre BG clone)?
 
Joined
Jan 11, 2013
Messages
288
You only get one chance to bank on middle aged people's nostalgia for their school/college days. PoE1 had to be groundbreaking to reignite the Baldur's Gate-like genre and secure success for its sequel, and for better or worse it wasn't. It is pretty common knowledge that the sales of a sequel are defined not by its own quality, but by the previous game's success. In case of PoE1 the "previous games" were the masterpieces: Baldur's Gate 2 and Torment. PoE2 had a much tougher job.
 

Big Wrangle

Guest
Another factor for the small White March percentage was also the fact that the first part received actual mixed reviews from critics. Meaning that those who read the reviews wouldn't bother diving in, and those who got burned by Part I jumped ship.
 

Cross

Arcane
Joined
Oct 14, 2017
Messages
2,998
The reason why PoE 1, WL2 and even non-Kickstarter titles like Blackguards sold relatively well is because they came out at a time when the cRPG 'revival' was getting a ton of attention from the press. This, coupled with the Kickstarter craze of 2012-2013, convinced a lot of people who otherwise wouldn't be interested in these game to try them out.

Once that brief surge in popularity passed and those people lost interest, it was back to niche status. The best example of this is T:ToN: its Kickstarter campaign broke the crowdfunding record, but then it spend so long in development that everyone just lost interest.

D:OS is the only one to escape this fate due to a number of factors (WoW aesthetic, co-op, etc.) giving it some degree of mainstream appeal.

With Deadfire, it doesn't help that Obsidian is hilariously incompetent at marketing. For instance, PoE's Steam page is still using screenshots from the beta that look worse than the release version.
 

As an Amazon Associate, rpgcodex.net earns from qualifying purchases.
Back
Top Bottom