Game News Larian is making Baldur's Gate 3

[rusty_shackleford]

Even taking into consideration D:OS and D:OS 2, they pale in comparison to the popularity and fame that Baldur's Gate received

Take those blinders off

He's right. Baldur's Gate sold 2.2 million copies by 2003.
Internally, BioWare's worldwide sales goal was 200.000 copies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baldur's_Gate#Sales

5 years after BG's release it sold 2.2 million copies total. 1 month after D:OS2's release it sold 700,000 copies. Considering the time since and release on consoles last year it's not hard to imagine that D:OS2's total sales figures would absolutely dwarf BG2 right now.
You can argue that there's a bigger market and easier access, but the reverse is also true: It's a heavily saturated market.

 

[Fireblade]

He's right. Baldur's Gate sold 2.2 million copies by 2003.
Internally, BioWare's worldwide sales goal was 200.000 copies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baldur's_Gate#Sales

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baldur's_Gate#Sales
I would imagine D:OS1's numbers are pretty similar to that. We don't know exactly, but evidence points to D:OS1 having sold well over that 2.2M number by now, across all platforms, 5 years after release (same # of years as your BG timeframe). And it wouldn't be surprising if Larian's expectations were just a few hundred K as well.

 

[hexer]

Bros, I'm not saying BG's success is greater than DOS's but I'm saying it was popular and considered a success in its time.
We were obsessed with the game, I remember lots of people, including a 15-year old me, skipping school classes just to stay home and play it 0-24.

Together with Fallout 1, it was considered as reviving interest in the RPG genre.

 

[Van-d-all]

Honestly comparing sales for games released over 15 years apart is mostly pointless. The market is constantly growing to a point where sales of newer games dwarf sales of older titles not because of merit but by sheer number of newfag influx. It's an Epic store "hueg success" kind of argument...

You can find newer games with higher sales despite their lower ratings than older titles with smaller sales and higher rankings, even within same series, and across various genres.

 

[rusty_shackleford]

Honestly comparing sales for games released over 15 years apart is mostly pointless. The market is constantly growing to a point where sales of newer games dwarf sales of older titles not because of merit but by sheer number of newfag influx. It's an Epic store "hueg success" kind of argument...

Market saturation, outside of the handful of big name titles you have a lot more games competing for a relatively small amount of customers.
The average Steam user owns 2 games iirc.

 

[Edija]

How do you go from this

Spoiler

To this:

Spoiler

 

[Van-d-all]

Honestly comparing sales for games released over 15 years apart is mostly pointless. The market is constantly growing to a point where sales of newer games dwarf sales of older titles not because of merit but by sheer number of newfag influx. It's an Epic store "hueg success" kind of argument...

Market saturation, outside of the handful of big name titles you have a lot more games competing for a relatively small amount of customers.
The average Steam user owns 2 games iirc.

Saturation requires reasonable substitutes. A "game" doesn't simply equate any other game, a customer needs to have a semblance of interest in it first. And average steam user is a throwaway account with a single game resold at discount price. It means nothing.

 

[hexer]

The average Steam user owns 2 games iirc.

SteamSpy says the number of average games per user is 47.66.

http://steamspy.com/#tab-graphs

Damn.. I need to stop buying new games all the time.

 

[rusty_shackleford]

The average Steam user owns 2 games iirc.

SteamSpy says the number of average games per user is 47.66.

http://steamspy.com/#tab-graphs

Damn.. I need to stop buying new games all the time.

(Ignoring that Steamspy is extremely inaccurate) That's a straight mean, they take the total number of games divided by the total number of users. A small amount of users own the vast majority of games. The median number of games owned by users is ...2. According to SteamSpy themselves: https://twvideo01.ubm-us.net/o1/vault/gdc2018/presentations/Steam_in_2017.pdf
The average game on Steam sells less than 100 copies. Over 40 new games release every day. Even when you control for the 'crap' games, the average game still sells less than 1,000 copies.
Check out the 2018 GDC talk by Mike Rose on this subject.

 

[rusty_shackleford]

And average steam user is a throwaway account with single game resold at discount price.

You just refuted your own 'bigger market audience' argument.

 

[vortex]

How do you go from this

To this:

So, you think they should make BG3 in 2D? But, they have 3D engine.

 

[Van-d-all]

And average steam user is a throwaway account with single game resold at discount price.

You just refuted your own 'bigger market audience' argument.

Nice strawman. Oh, btw:

 

[rusty_shackleford]

And average steam user is a throwaway account with single game resold at discount price.

You just refuted your own 'bigger market audience' argument.

Nice strawman. Oh, btw:

That's not what a strawman is, and you just linked to the talk that I referenced one post above.

 

[onemananadhisdroid]

It's almost like Obsidian set up to showcase the worst possible case of RTwP in a cRPG.

Wouldn't say it's the worst, but at the higher echolons of complexity, where opponents are equally similar equipped and plentyful, it certainly verges on the "worst of both Worlds". Bioware back then were inspired by RTS, which were also wildly popular, and which they actually played themselves at their Offices (Warcraft 2). The current Batch of nu-RTWP games is mainly inspired by their tabletop experiences, and crams their stuff into a Format they think is kinda like Baldur's Gate. In turn the complexity goes through the Roof, and the flow Bioware were aiming for is lost. Probably doesn't help that several main System Designers personally have a strong Preference for turn based tactical Combat from the go. As some cynics put it, it's less real-time with pause, and rather pause with real-time.


Maybe Larian could even "fix" RtWP, who knows? :D I mean, until D:OS came around, the only Option of viable turn-based seemed to ape X-Com's cover systems… *fabulously optimistic*

 

[hexer]

We should also take into account that world population is growing all the time.
There is a 1,4 billion population increase in last 20 years.

No wonder Steam is doing good, you have to entertain all those kids!

 

[Van-d-all]

And average steam user is a throwaway account with single game resold at discount price.

You just refuted your own 'bigger market audience' argument.

Nice strawman. Oh, btw:

That's not what a strawman is, and you just linked to the talk that I referenced one post above.

It's the very essence of a strawman. You are trying to refute my argumentation, by tying the invalidity of steam user accounts reported by steamspy with the overall sale figures from whatever sources, including numbers provided by distributors and retailers and across all platforms. A blatant generalization.

And of course it's the video you referenced, specifically a fragment where the dude himself says that comparing games even a year apart is pointless.

 

[rusty_shackleford]

And of course it's the vido you referenced, specifically a fragment where the dude himself says that comparing games even a year apart is pointless.

You're right. The average game should sell less, not more, as time goes on. Did you watch the video?
So we can circle back to taking those blinders off.

 

[Van-d-all]

And of course it's the vido you referenced, specifically a fragment where the dude himself says that comparing games even a year apart is pointless.

You're right. The average game should sell less, not more, as time goes on. Did you watch the video?
So we can circle back to taking those blinders off.

I'd certainly advise you to circle back to my first sentence. The one about such comparisons being pointless.

 

[rusty_shackleford]

And of course it's the vido you referenced, specifically a fragment where the dude himself says that comparing games even a year apart is pointless.

You're right. The average game should sell less, not more, as time goes on. Did you watch the video?
So we can circle back to taking those blinders off.

I'd certainly advise you to circle back to my first sentence. The one about such comparisons being pointless.

They're pointless because games sell less as time goes on and you can't expect to sell as many copies as games sold previously. How dense are you?

 

[Van-d-all]

And of course it's the vido you referenced, specifically a fragment where the dude himself says that comparing games even a year apart is pointless.

You're right. The average game should sell less, not more, as time goes on. Did you watch the video?
So we can circle back to taking those blinders off.

I'd certainly advise you to circle back to my first sentence. The one about such comparisons being pointless.

They're pointless because games sell less as time goes on and you can't expect to sell as many copies as games sold previously. How dense are you?

The GDC dude is talking to and about AVARAGE shmucks making their AVARAGE shovelware trash being somewhat statistically representative with his AVARAGE numbers. Larian was already AA at the given time, so easily above 90% of early access / greenlight plankton those games share the market with.

 

[rusty_shackleford]

And of course it's the vido you referenced, specifically a fragment where the dude himself says that comparing games even a year apart is pointless.

You're right. The average game should sell less, not more, as time goes on. Did you watch the video?
So we can circle back to taking those blinders off.

I'd certainly advise you to circle back to my first sentence. The one about such comparisons being pointless.

They're pointless because games sell less as time goes on and you can't expect to sell as many copies as games sold previously. How dense are you?

The GDC dude is talking to and about AVARAGE shmucks making their AVARAGE shovelware trash being somewhat statistically representative with his AVARAGE numbers. Larian was already AA at the given time, so easily above 90% of early access / greenlight plankton those game share the market with.

Yeah, Larian did exceedingly well and far above their expectations. They made one of the best selling games on Steam and one of the best selling RPGs of all-time. I concede defeat in this argument, you've bested me.

 

[VentilatorOfDoom]

Will be worse than Sword Coast Legends.

 

[Brzęczyszczykiewicz]

How do you go from this

Spoiler

To this:

Spoiler

By walking out of area with grass into area with sand.

 

[hexer]

I'm not even sure what's being discussed here anymore...
If we're looking for the king, it's Pokemon!
https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_RPG_games

Baldur's Gate was a popular 90s franchise.
Ray Muzyka said in a 2005. interview both games sold over 5 million units.
https://web.archive.org/web/20071023215138/www.xboxgamers.com/index.php?do=viewarticle&id=1889

That was 14 years ago and without Enhanced Editions.

SteamSpy says Divinity franchise also sold millions and it's a popular 2010s RPG franchise.
https://steamspy.com/search.php?s=divinity

There you go, every franchise was/is popular in its time.

To me this discussion looks like DOS fans are pissed because Larian is working on some 90s franchise sequel while they're waiting for DOS 3.

 

[vortex]

To me this discussion looks like DOS fans are pissed because Larian is working on some 90s franchise sequel while they're waiting for DOS 3.

They have a lot of people at the studio so DOS3 may be in the works already.