If you think this won't make up for its development costs, you are sadly mistaken. It will turn profit.
It might, but it will probably disappoint. Remember this is a PS4 exclusive, they are supposed to be universally liked and sell 10s of millions of copies, not get a 3.4 user score on Metacritic and merely sell a few million.
Yeah, that's not how the destruction of these big IPs works. It's gonna be like Star Wars - TLJ did make 1.3 billion. That's a huge amount of money and huge profit for Disney.
Problem is it's way less than 2.1 billion for Force Awakens. And it also caused the third film to flop even more, with "mere" 1.1 billion. This is not what's expected from successful trilogies. Series like LotR or Harry Potter were either more or equally successful with each subsequent sequel.
So my humble tip is this: TLoU1 sold 20 million (as did Uncharted 4). The second game will sell maybe 13 million? And if they make a third game it'll have a hard time reaching 10 million. And this is all the most optimistic prediction for ND I could manage.
And just like that Naughty Dog will decline from a studio that was regularly selling 20 million to someone selling half that, if lucky. From the top of the world into the crowded average.