Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Roguey]

Why you have made us read when there is VO?

Post the whole thing!

The whole thing is 2 hours and 30 minutes. I did you all a favor.

 

[Quillon]

Why you have made us read when there is VO?

Post the whole thing!

The whole thing is 2 hours and 30 minutes.

That sentence only makes me want it more :D

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

It's all about INTERNAL consistency. There are gods in BG's world, so it's possible for there to be a child of a god. PoE is a medieval fantasy world that makes no sense - most people use swords and armors like it's the middle ages, but there are gun powder (which made armor& castles useless) lying around and somehow there's also the tech for giant machines. That made sense in Arcanum, where all that was integrated into a giant conflict of magic & science, but in PoE nothing is ever addressed.

The main problem is that the plot is not engaging. I see players complaining about the seriousness of PoE as it was the culprit, but AoD is serious and engaging. That’s not it. The problem is the lack of strength and personality behind it. These Obsidian games have no personality at all. They have no truth behind them. It doesn’t feel like the developers were making the game they really wanted. The result is uninspired, insincere and bland mediocrity. I think if they tried to make the games they wanted the result would be better, even if I didn't share the developers preferences.

 

[Infinitron]

For many sequel RPGs released these days, the Codex impulse is to say: "HA HA, we always knew nobody actually liked your first game even though it sold pretty well! You always sucked and the people have finally woken up!"

What'll happen when it occurs with a game you liked, though? Will Dungeon Rats be the White March to The New World's Deadfire?

 

[ArchAngel]

For many sequel RPGs released these days, the Codex impulse is to say: "HA HA, we always knew nobody actually liked your first game even though it sold pretty well. You always sucked and the people have finally woken up!"

What'll happen when it occurs with a game you liked, though? Will Dungeon Rats be the White March to The New World's Deadfire?

Or maybe good sequels sell better as evidenced by Shadowrun Dragonfall and you are just talking out of your ass like usual.

 

[Roguey]

That sentence only makes me want it more :D

I don't believe there's too much demand for the Blade Runner 2049 of RPG developer interviews. It even ends the same, with Bubbles dying alone in the cold while Sawyer reconnects with his estranged fanbase.

 

[Infinitron]

I'm not deflecting anything.

For the record, I think Obsidian can be excused for thinking they could pull off an Original Sin 2 with Deadfire. The first game definitely had a strong base of people who really liked it. Look at the game's threads on various forums. Look at the Codex, where people just. can't. stop. talking. about Pillars of Eternity long after they've grown bored of other games (including Divinity). That's why I said that if anybody had a shot at pulling it off besides Larian, it was Obsidian. Alas, they didn't.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

For many sequel RPGs released these days, the Codex impulse is to say: "HA HA, we always knew nobody actually liked your first game even though it sold pretty well. You always sucked and the people have finally woken up!" What'll happen when it occurs with a game you liked, though? Will Dungeon Rats be the White March to The New World's Deadfire?

You were not paying attention. I said that the first PoE was a failure as a game, even though it was a success from a commercial point of view, and for all the wrong reasons. If ITS don't sell shit, they will close doors even after having contributed to the genre with great games, just like Troika did. There is nothing I can do about it. I can't control the market. I think developers have more chances of achieving creative success trying to do what they want instead of playing safe, because that’s what interest me as a player. But even if we start thinking as a developer, i.e., in terms of sales and profits, it seems evident that the nostalgia business model is starting to fall apart, so they might just as well tried to do what they want. But then again the boss is Feargus so any discussion in that direction is pointless speculation. I want to see how W3 will be received. They corrected a lot of mistakes, but then again they apparently did this with T:ToN and look how it turned out.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

the actual reason why DR did not sell so great is simply that AoD is a very niche game unlike PoE, a BG clone.

DR sold 35,732, avg. price $5.46, but it was made in ten months. Besides, they used the game as a test drive for the combat system with companions, and this experience will now be used on their new game. It was not the WM of ITS, anyway you look at it.

 

[FreeKaner]

I rarely agree with fantadomat, but he's right and you completely missed the point.

It's all about INTERNAL consistency. There are gods in BG's world, so it's possible for there to be a child of a god. PoE is a medieval fantasy world that makes no sense - most people use swords and armors like it's the middle ages, but there are gun powder (which made armor& castles useless) lying around and somehow there's also the tech for giant machines. That made sense in Arcanum, where all that was integrated into a giant conflict of magic & science, but in PoE nothing is ever addressed.

Don't talk of history if you don't know history. World didn't go from everyone wearing armours to wearing uniforms over a day. I know this is surprising for people who have knowledge of history only from odd movie and perhaps derivative fantasy but there exists no timeline where full-plate armours existed and gunpowder weapons didn't. In fact, armour technology improved and breastplates and full plates developed especially to meet a demand against gunpowder weapons. Aren't you from a Latin American country, how is it that you are unaware of your own history this much, never heard of tercios?

Here are some choice pictures for you that will blow your mind:

Spoiler

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

AOD sold an INSANE amount for what it is. ... I am 100% sure, TNW will flop like POE2.

AoD was a hardcore game, both in combat and non-combat gameplay terms, and it sold 134k, which is a good number, but which is representative of the actual target audience (no bubble here).

PoE was a nostalgia project, which relied on kickstarter and benefit from game journalists hype, a known formula, a previous target audience, and sold one million copies.

ITS is team of five (six now?) unexperienced developers.

Obsidian is an established studio with veterans of the industry, with the pedigree of being the survivors of Interplay and lots of payroll.

Now you stop and think about the difference between the two studios and their games, in which way the success of one mirrors the success of the other, and consider what are the odds that TNW will flop like PoE2. They have nothing in common.

 

[Sensuki]

Look at the Codex, where people just. can't. stop. talking. about Pillars of Eternity

I think that largely has to do with the height of controversy. The second one isn't controversial.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

One more thing to add, Infinitron. DR was made in ten months, but it didn't feel rushed or anything. In fact, it has better combat than AoD and it didn't make me feel like I didn't get my money's worth. If anything, we can criticise them for making the game so cheap. This is important from a player's perspective because It doesn't make him feel like a sucker who buys anything. It didn't betray my trust. If they kept seeling a bunch of shovelware like Obsidian is doing with these expansions, I would stop buying their games at once.

 

[Bohr]

If only talking on the Codex was a better proxy for commercial success, Cleve would have a triple storey bunker

Anyway, pretty sure that no matter how TNW sells there will be plenty of people here saying it's shit, because it's the Codex. But it's not really a sequel to AoD so the comparison seems a bit of s stretch.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

Look at the Codex, where people just. can't. stop. talking. about Pillars of Eternity long after they've grown bored of other games (including Divinity).

We can’t stop talking about Pillars because it is an interesting subject from an armchair developer perspective, and for a multitude of reasons. It shows how much contemporary developers don’t get it BG2, how much some players care about BG2, how developers can be misleading with their promises, how interest design concepts such as balance can be misunderstood, why Obsidian was never the studio that storyfags wanted them to be, how the cRPG renascence is a lie, the problems with kickstarter, and so on.

 

[Roguey]

I think that largely has to do with the height of controversy. The second one isn't controversial.

Deadfire has quite a few controversial aspects.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

134k sales are about an order of magnitude larger than expected. 134k is when the whole potentially interested audience buys in. The whole 100% audience. They sold 10k in the frist 6 months?

You have no idea what you are talking about. They sold more than 35k in early access alone.

When I say 'flop like', I mean TNW will sell worse than Dungeon Rats, depending on price. And it will be the end of ITS.

Well, it can flop and ITS can shut its doors, but TNW will not sell worse than DR. That much is a given.

 

[Ramnozack]

I really hope we are wrong about the sales, I'd hate to see Obsidian and Sawyer not make cRPGs anymore.

 

[Roguey]

I really hope we are wrong about the sales, I'd hate to see Obsidian and Sawyer not make cRPGs anymore.

Obsidian should burn to ash so the talented developers can go on to better-run companies.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

The only thing going for them is that they sold relatively slowly which idicates sincere interest.

That is one thing. Another thing is that they can afford to sustain these numbers because they are a small team and have no publisher, unlike Obsidian.

I really hope we are wrong about the sales, I'd hate to see Obsidian and Sawyer not make cRPGs anymore.

Me too. We need more uninspired BG clones to bitch about.

 

[FreeKaner]

I really hope we are wrong about the sales, I'd hate to see Obsidian and Sawyer not make cRPGs anymore.

Obsidian should burn to ash so the talented developers can go on to better-run companies.

We preach dumpsterfire so that garbage might be burnt away.

 

[Quillon]

I've seen so many people disappointed by the first game who had been eagerly following its development, discussing it much like in here. They haven't shown any interest in Deadfire & not even now after its release, which might be the cause of initial sales disappointment. But I think Deadfire has way more long term sale potential than PoE 1.

Obs' evul upper management's now questioning whether a $10 million game in this style was worth making. There is a 50% chance PoE 3 either won't happen or won't be in this style naow.

 

[Sentinel]

One steam friend messaged me out of the blue yesterday saying "poe2 is garbage, don't bother / I regret buying it".

 

[Nano]

I really hope we are wrong about the sales, I'd hate to see Obsidian and Sawyer not make cRPGs anymore.

Obsidian should burn to ash so the talented developers can go on to better-run companies.

What makes you think it would be better for us? It hasn't with the developers who've left so far. John Gonzalez is currently working on console exclusives, Travis Stout is semi-retired at Ubisoft, George Ziets is stuck at inXile, Avellone still hasn't done any noteworthy work since 2011, etc.

 

[Roguey]

There is a 50% chance PoE 3 either won't happen or won't be in this style naow.

I'm looking forward to Pillars of Eternity 3 being the Fallout 3 of the series. See that adra pillar? You can climb it.

What makes you think it would be better for us? It hasn't with the developers who've left so far. John Gonzalez is currently working on console exclusives, Travis Stout is semi-retired at Ubisoft, George Ziets is stuck at inXile, Avellone still hasn't done any noteworthy work since 2011, etc.

It's an outcome that does damage to people who deserve it, losing out on future Obsidian-developed RPGs is an acceptable loss. The Obsidian I liked is gone anyway.