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Editorial Unpredictability and Control in Turn-Based Combat

VentilatorOfDoom

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Tags: Sinister Design; Telepath RPG: Servants of God

Sinister Design's Creg Stern examined the unpredictability (boo-hoo dice rolls are evil, duh!) and control in turn-based combat.
Luckily, unpredictability is not just a spark that flickers into existence for the moment between issuing a command and watching the game’s onscreen interpretation of it. Unpredictability can also exist on a much broader level. Developers can employ a combination of clever AI and tactical depth to keep turn-based combat unpredictable and wrought with tension.

Chess and Go are a fine example for us to look at. As we know, Chess and Go do not have an ounce of randomness in them. Every last move is 100% deterministic in its effects. It is never unclear what happens if your knight moves onto a pawn’s space: the knight takes the pawn. Period. End of story. Likewise, you’ll never sit there biting your nails, wondering what happens when you surround a group of enemy pieces in Go. The pieces are either taken or not taken based on a simple, unchanging rule. The results of the move are entirely predictable.

And yet, matches of Chess and Go can positively drip tension, the end results of any given match wildly uncertain. How is that possible? The answer lies not in what happens after the player selects a move, but rather in what happens beforehand. In Chess and Go, the player faces a black box full of dangerous and unpredictable moves. This is possible only because each of these games sports two characteristics: (1) a thinking opponent and (2) a large possibility space.

As you no doubt divined, the clever opponent is the primary source of unpredictability here. A clever opponent will go out of its way to seize on weaknesses in a player’s plan. The player never knows for certain which move such an opponent will opt for, and therefore has to tread carefully to avoid having her own moves exploited. In order to succeed, the player has to try to guess the opponent’s likely response to each move from among multiple viable options: in short, to outwit him. This is a huge source of unpredictability—and thus, tension.
 

felipepepe

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I get what he's talking about, but this just feels weird:

A second potential issue is personality-based. For some, failure in a game bruises their sense of themselves as competent people. In their minds, they didn’t just lose because they tried a strategy that didn’t work; they lost because they are intrinsically not smart enough, not good enough. The ego is much too tightly wrapped up in the results of particular challenges, producing a personalization of loss that can be emotionally crushing. The mediation of the dice provides an “out,” a way of walking away from a loss without feeling totally responsible. In short, it’s the flip side of my argument above: determinism promotes a feeling of player responsibility, but perhaps some players don’t want to feel wholly responsible.

I ask this honestly, is this really a thing? There are really people that defends this argument?
 

Infinitron

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I get what he's talking about, but this just feels weird:

A second potential issue is personality-based. For some, failure in a game bruises their sense of themselves as competent people. In their minds, they didn’t just lose because they tried a strategy that didn’t work; they lost because they are intrinsically not smart enough, not good enough. The ego is much too tightly wrapped up in the results of particular challenges, producing a personalization of loss that can be emotionally crushing. The mediation of the dice provides an “out,” a way of walking away from a loss without feeling totally responsible. In short, it’s the flip side of my argument above: determinism promotes a feeling of player responsibility, but perhaps some players don’t want to feel wholly responsible.

I ask this honestly, is this really a thing? There are really people that defends this argument?

Well, he's right that the existence of "good rolls" and "bad rolls" in a system can keep people trying again and again, in hopes of getting better rolls. Maybe with no randomness they'd just give up.

Of course, in some cases they SHOULD be giving up, rather than trying to cheese their way through with 3 consecutive critical hits or something.

The whole "bruises their sense of themselves as competent people" thing is totally :patriot: though
 

alx3apps

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Cannot remember last time I played any fully predictable game. Maybe in HoMM3 blessed units always do max damage - it was easier to plan movements in such case.

By the way, where's my fully predictable (and with high player responsibility :) ) Legends of Eisenwald? It should be released a month ago, but afaik even demo isn't out yet.
 

kaizoku

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This would have avoid a lot of butthurt in AoD :smug:
(including my own)

In theory this sounds good, in practice we shall see.
But he should have made an abstraction layer to number generation. That way he could make it an option (between exact and random) and please both crowds.
 

tuluse

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Cannot remember last time I played any fully predictable game. Maybe in HoMM3 blessed units always do max damage - it was easier to plan movements in such case.

By the way, where's my fully predictable (and with high player responsibility :) ) Legends of Eisenwald? It should be released a month ago, but afaik even demo isn't out yet.
Plenty of FPSes are fully predictable. In fact randomized bullet spread is a pretty new thing.
 

alx3apps

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Cannot remember last time I played any fully predictable game. Maybe in HoMM3 blessed units always do max damage - it was easier to plan movements in such case.

By the way, where's my fully predictable (and with high player responsibility :) ) Legends of Eisenwald? It should be released a month ago, but afaik even demo isn't out yet.
Plenty of FPSes are fully predictable. In fact randomized bullet spread is a pretty new thing.
I mean turn-based games. Games that depend on your reflexes are never fully predictable (in the sence this article means).

In FPS I can remember randomized aiming (not bullets themselve) was great in Deus Ex, it created tension.
 

tuluse

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I'm just saying, you know Quake with rail guns is fully based on player skill, there is no randomness to it.

Actually there are random spawn locations, but very little randomness.
 

tuluse

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I don't see enough evidence that is randomized and not a set pattern.

For instance, CS has a set pattern. The top level players have it memorized and adjust their aiming accordingly.
 

Oriebam

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Thread shows as
"Unpredictabilit yand Control in
Turn-Based Combat"
on the homepage

just a heads up
 

DraQ

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I don't see enough evidence that is randomized and not a set pattern.
Doom source code has long since been released.

Besides, it's not like RNGs were any sort of novel idea at the time Doom was in production. Doom has all kind of randomization in it - random damage, pain chance, probably some AI routines - what sense would it make to hardcode chaingun pattern?

Of course, RNGs are at best pseudo-random, but when properly initialized that's good enough.
 

Alex_Steel

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I like my games not being too random. It always gives such a shitty feeling when you have a great encounter, just to be ruined by luck, either coming from the players or the GM.
Sure, I can secretly adjust it on the fly if I'm the GM but it still feels like shit.
 

Lightknight

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I ask this honestly, is this really a thing? There are really people that defends this argument?
For "generic" strategy games ? I dont think so. For "puzzle-strategy" ? Perhaps. I can at least imagine myself in a game where i know there is a specific and singular solution, yet i am unable to see it. I would be somewhat disappointed with myself.
 

Captain Shrek

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This sounds very similar to the retarded argument that J.E. Sawyer made about randomness.
 

Johannes

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As you no doubt divined, the clever opponent is the primary source of unpredictability here. A clever opponent will go out of its way to seize on weaknesses in a player’s plan. The player never knows for certain which move such an opponent will opt for, and therefore has to tread carefully to avoid having her own moves exploited. In order to succeed, the player has to try to guess the opponent’s likely response to each move from among multiple viable options: in short, to outwit him. This is a huge source of unpredictability—and thus, tension.
No, clever opponent is not the source of unpredictability here. It's not like a bad chess player will be predictable, more like the opposite actually (who might do the stupidest blunders as well as good moves). Whereas in, say, tic-tac-toe, the game is pretty predictable no matter how amazing the players are.

Unpredictability in a deterministic game depends on good game mechanics first and foremost, cleverness of your opponent is very much secondary in that regard.
 
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I don't see enough evidence that is randomized and not a set pattern.

For instance, CS has a set pattern. The top level players have it memorized and adjust their aiming accordingly.

CS still uses that? Waaaaay back when I played it I remember people would mod their game with custom crosshairs that showed where the first shot of the sequence would land. Used it to get headshots from across the map with AK-47s.
 

Radech

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I don't see enough evidence that is randomized and not a set pattern.

For instance, CS has a set pattern. The top level players have it memorized and adjust their aiming accordingly.

CS still uses that? Waaaaay back when I played it I remember people would mod their game with custom crosshairs that showed where the first shot of the sequence would land. Used it to get headshots from across the map with AK-47s.

It's a weighted random, no player regardless of skill can spray a 30 round ak clip and hit the same point, but they can get a pretty tight grouping, which imo is pretty close to perfect in regards of a skill vs luck implementation
 

Captain Shrek

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I don't see enough evidence that is randomized and not a set pattern.

For instance, CS has a set pattern. The top level players have it memorized and adjust their aiming accordingly.

CS still uses that? Waaaaay back when I played it I remember people would mod their game with custom crosshairs that showed where the first shot of the sequence would land. Used it to get headshots from across the map with AK-47s.
:lol:

Some of my friends used to run around with AWP without scope and one shotted everyone since they somehow knew where the center of the screen was (Something I never got to correctly guess without crosshairs).
 

Johannes

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I don't see enough evidence that is randomized and not a set pattern.

For instance, CS has a set pattern. The top level players have it memorized and adjust their aiming accordingly.

CS still uses that? Waaaaay back when I played it I remember people would mod their game with custom crosshairs that showed where the first shot of the sequence would land. Used it to get headshots from across the map with AK-47s.
:lol:

Some of my friends used to run around with AWP without scope and one shotted everyone since they somehow knew where the center of the screen was (Something I never got to correctly guess without crosshairs).
Wouldn't painting a tiny dot on your screen do the trick pretty easily?
 

Captain Shrek

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I don't see enough evidence that is randomized and not a set pattern.

For instance, CS has a set pattern. The top level players have it memorized and adjust their aiming accordingly.

CS still uses that? Waaaaay back when I played it I remember people would mod their game with custom crosshairs that showed where the first shot of the sequence would land. Used it to get headshots from across the map with AK-47s.
:lol:

Some of my friends used to run around with AWP without scope and one shotted everyone since they somehow knew where the center of the screen was (Something I never got to correctly guess without crosshairs).
Wouldn't painting a tiny dot on your screen do the trick pretty easily?
That's what I did.... :oops:
 
Self-Ejected

Ulminati

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People painting a tiny dot on their screen to exploit "random" patterns of bullets in a FPS is a pretty interesting statement on unpredictability and control in real-time combat :M
 

deuxhero

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I really dislike randomness during "routine" actions (any combat specialist should always hit a normal foe), but have no problem with abilities that are random in design (such as an option to decrease your chance to hit in exchange for increased damage).
 

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