How much ME3 will sell?

[Kz3r0]

Let' see if the Codex is more reliable than the marketing office.
I have already said this in another thread, you can't try to cater at the marine loving crowd and go straight gay at the same time.
I say less than two millions copies.

 

[XenomorphII]

Do you have any links indicating how well the previous ones sold and how well the DAs sold?

If so you should include them so people can give educated guesses.

 

[racofer]

Rougly 2 millions, a failure but in line with previous sales figures.

 

[Phage]

It will outsell ME2. Calling it here.

Brand recognition has reached an all-time high for Mass Effect, and it's the "conclusion" to the trilogy. Think of all the people who in the past few years have purchased ME1 and/or 2 used (which doesn't count for sales) and now want to finish the story. Additionally there is now a multiplayer feature (which will likely require an online pass) so more people will want to buy it new as opposed to at 55$ week 2 used.

Very, very simple economics behind this.

 

[Infinitron]

It will outsell ME2. Calling it here.

Brand recognition has reached an all-time high for Mass Effect, and it's the "conclusion" to the trilogy. Think of all the people who in the past few years have purchased ME1 and/or 2 used (which doesn't count for sales) and now want to finish the story. Additionally there is now a multiplayer feature (which will likely require an online pass) so more people will want to buy it new as opposed to at 55$ week 2 used.

Very, very simple economics behind this.

Yeah, I'm thinking 3-4 million, maybe more. And by the way, that's a great argument in favor of allowing used game sales.

 

[Kz3r0]

Well, from the other thread:
Dragon Age: Origins sold over 3.2 million units according to EA estimates.
The Old Republic MMO sold 2,000,000+ copies with 1,700,000+ active subscribers.

This is what I have found around instead:
Mass Effect 2 Week One Sales Top 2 Million
Mass Effect Sales Rocket To 1M
This are the only official figures I have found, remember that the industry itself has said that eighty percent of the sales for a title are in the first few months.

 

[Azalin]

I think it will sell about 3millions for the reason Phage already mentioned

Brand recognition has reached an all-time high for Mass Effect, and it's the "conclusion" to the trilogy. Think of all the people who in the past few years have purchased ME1 and/or 2 used (which doesn't count for sales) and now want to finish the story. Additionally there is now a multiplayer feature (which will likely require an online pass) so more people will want to buy it new as opposed to at 55$ week 2 used.

 

[Wirdschowerdn]

Not enough for EA's taste.

 

[Achilles]

I think it will manage 5 million copies.

 

[Turisas]

Less than Skyrim.

 

[CrustyBot]

6-7 million.

It'll be their best gaem evar!

There'll probably be a gay romance squadmate DLC and it'll be hailed as "revolutionary", "mature" and progressive.

 

[Kz3r0]

Less than Skyrim.

Less than Modern Warfare 3.

Better, less than New Vegas.

Edit:

The follow-up to 2008′s Game of the Year Fallout 3, Fallout: New Vegas has exceeded all expectations, shifting an incredible five million retail copies at launch.

http://www.ggsgamer.com/2010/11/08/bethesda-announce-record-sales-figures-for-fallout-new-vegas/

 

[Infinitron]

Hmmm.... http://www.destructoid.com/ea-quickly-ends-mass-effect-3-s-bf3-freebie-offer-222054.phtml

 

[Turisas]

Edit:

The follow-up to 2008′s Game of the Year Fallout 3, Fallout: New Vegas has exceeded all expectations, shifting an incredible five million retail copies at launch.

http://www.ggsgamer.com/2010/11/08/bethesda-announce-record-sales-figures-for-fallout-new-vegas/

And those dicks at Bethesda still probably won't let Obsidian touch Fallout again.

 

[Kz3r0]

Hmmm.... http://www.destructoid.com/ea-quickly-ends-mass-effect-3-s-bf3-freebie-offer-222054.phtml

An amazing success for BF 3 .

 

[fizzelopeguss]

11 million for bf3 by the way.

 

[Shiki]

More than 3 millions.
ME3 will have an action mode, with a default set route for conversations so that you won't have to make a choice, and thus can't make a particularly "wrong" choice since it will go through something akin to a canon view of ME. Multiplayer. Shock intro sequence in Call of Duty's vein.. and the story will probably make more sense if you didn't play the first ME and didn't see how powerful the reapers were supposed to be. Since in ME3 you have all the time in the world to escape alone without the support of a fleet, have the time to come back and save the earth since the reapers will actually wait for you, or something. C'mon, the most advanced "civilization" of the universe, capable of annihilating (and having done so) all intelligent life and it will take them that much time to make a human reaper or whatever it is they want to do with the earth ?

ME3 is going to be Bioware biggest hit, and probably the first step toward making pure third person shooters because if that game is a success, with the direction it took, it can only mean that they will want to take even more of that juicy market. Maybe they'll even try FPS..

 

[Wyrmlord]

It will fail to break the 4 million sales barrier.

Moreover, Obsidian's post-New-Vegas success will cause it to now begin outselling BioWare games, and everytime BioWare breaks a new threshold, Obsidian would have already crossed it earlier.

 

[Valestein]

More than 3 millions.
ME3 will have an action mode, with a default set route for conversations so that you won't have to make a choice, and thus can't make a particularly "wrong" choice since it will go through something akin to a canon view of ME. Multiplayer. Shock intro sequence in Call of Duty's vein.. and the story will probably make more sense if you didn't play the first ME and didn't see how powerful the reapers were supposed to be. Since in ME3 you have all the time in the world to escape alone without the support of a fleet, have the time to come back and save the earth since the reapers will actually wait for you, or something. C'mon, the most advanced "civilization" of the universe, capable of annihilating (and having done so) all intelligent life and it will take them that much time to make a human reaper or whatever it is they want to do with the earth ?

ME3 is going to be Bioware biggest hit, and probably the first step toward making pure third person shooters because if that game is a success, with the direction it took, it can only mean that they will want to take even more of that juicy market. Maybe they'll even try FPS..

Don't forget that Shepard will have time to turn the Normandy into one big sex party while the reapers wait for him too.

 

[treave]

The follow-up to 2008′s Game of the Year Fallout 3, Fallout: New Vegas has exceeded all expectations, shifting an incredible five million retail copies at launch.

http://www.ggsgamer.com/2010/11/08/bethesda-announce-record-sales-figures-for-fallout-new-vegas/

That's only because Fallout 3 was so awesome that gamers wanted more of the same.

Also, Mass Effect 3 is going to break 5 millions as all the feminists and white knights rush to prove the misogynerds wrong by snapping up multiple copies per person.

 

[Shiki]

Moreover, Obsidian's post-New-Vegas success will cause it to now begin outselling BioWare games, and everytime BioWare breaks a new threshold, Obsidian would have already crossed it earlier.

Unless Obsidian decides to stay Bethesda's bitch and focus on making sequels or spinoffs of their games, they will NOT outsell Bioware. Not with their own games anyway.

 

[Infinitron]

It will fail to break the 4 million sales barrier.

Moreover, Obsidian's post-New-Vegas success will cause it to now begin outselling BioWare games, and everytime BioWare breaks a new threshold, Obsidian would have already crossed it earlier.

Eh, let's wait and see if that wasn't just a one time thing. How do you reckon the South Park RPG will sell?

ME3 is going to be Bioware biggest hit, and probably the first step toward making pure third person shooters because if that game is a success, with the direction it took, it can only mean that they will want to take even more of that juicy market. Maybe they'll even try FPS..

Fuck, they may end up trying to make a DX:HR clone. That's pretty much the middle of the spectrum between pure FPS and Bioware game.

 

[Kz3r0]

Unless Obsidian decides to stay Bethesda's bitch and focus on making sequels or spinoffs of their games, they will NOT outsell Bioware. Not with their own games anyway.

Sadly you are correct even if Fallout is more of an Obsidian franchise than Bethesda's.

 

[Spectacle]

Hmmm.... http://www.destructoid.com/ea-quickly-ends-mass-effect-3-s-bf3-freebie-offer-222054.phtml

This influx of Mass Effect popamolers means that BF3 will soon be set to "Easy" difficulty.

 

[Father Walker]

Moreover, Obsidian's post-New-Vegas success will cause it to now begin outselling BioWare games, and everytime BioWare breaks a new threshold, Obsidian would have already crossed it earlier.

I bet that most people who bought NV don't even know it was made by Obsidian.

 

[felipepepe]

It will outsell ME2. Calling it here.

Brand recognition has reached an all-time high for Mass Effect, and it's the "conclusion" to the trilogy. Think of all the people who in the past few years have purchased ME1 and/or 2 used (which doesn't count for sales) and now want to finish the story. Additionally there is now a multiplayer feature (which will likely require an online pass) so more people will want to buy it new as opposed to at 55$ week 2 used.

Very, very simple economics behind this.

I doubt it. Origin will kill part of the PC sales, the bad demo killed some more, and the insane ammount of DLCs means that unless you spend 800 USD in DLC you won't get all content anyway, so buying it used and losing one doens't make any difference (multiplayer doesn't required online pass IIRC). Also, it's the end of the trilogy, I expect that in less than a year we will get the aweshum "Mass Effect Trilogy GOTY Boxset", with all 3 games and DLCs, so late buyers will keep waiting for it.

Besides, I do think the game will be bad AND that /v/ and teh Codex will attack it on Metacritic on day one, just for the lulz and revenge for the DA 2 blame.

Still...I expect them to make less money from the actual game and way more from DLCs and merchandise this time...which gives them monetary freedom to artificially boost sales number with "buy ME 3 & Get BF 3" promotions and the likes. They have stockholders and a market reputation that makes ME 3 selling less than ME 2 something that just can't happen, no matter the price.