It's not the gun-grabbing though, that has actual real-world evidence-backed connection to populations with less gun violence
Here I have to disagree with you. You have less crime in Texas than in Illinois, New York or California. Why? Because in Texas, if you try something funny, they'll shoot your ass and don't even bother asking questions later. In Chicagoland, The Bloomberg Kingdom or Cali, they'll trow the book at you if you have the gall to defend yourself. Also, I'll just mention the fact that firearms-related crime increased both in Britain and in Australia after private gun ownership was, essentially, banned in the '90s. If you want actual reference on that, either google it or I can look it up for you.
I don't want to go too far with this, since it's already pretty off topic, but your examples conveniently leave out Japan and places like Canada. I'd like the UK reference if possible too out of curiosity. I suppose I could Google it, but it's easier to know for sure that we are looking at the same report.
When gun violence went up in the 90s there, was it just correlation or is there actual evidence of causation? Also, what has it done since that time? I would imagine that a spike would be predictable, followed by a gradual downward trend.
OK, this is wildly off topic from the matter of this thread, but here goes:
Britain:
[2010/2011]
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/public.../crime-research/hosb0212/hosb0212?view=Binary
[2009/2010]
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/public.../crime-research/hosb0111/hosb0111?view=Binary
[2008/2009]
http://webarchive.nationalarchives....rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs10/hosb0110.pdf
[2007/2008]
http://webarchive.nationalarchives....rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs09/hosb0209.pdf
[2006/2007]
http://webarchive.nationalarchives....rds.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs08/hosb0308.pdf
[2003]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/2769569.stm
The BBC article says (and doesn't provide a hard quote but seem to be working on data from a report from the Home Office because what they're saying is supported by the newer HO reports) that crime and, firearms-related crime, had been on a steady rise up to that point (2003). If you look at Figure 1.1 in all the HO crime reports, you'll see that there really was a peak in homicides in 2003. However, I have to quote the following statement that can be found in the 2010/2011 report, on page 16: "
Caution is needed when looking at longer-term homicide trend figures, primarily because they are based on the year in which offences are recorded by the police rather than the year in which the incidents took place. For example, the 172 homicides attributed to Dr Harold Shipman as a result of Dame Janet Smith‟s inquiry took place over a long period of time but were all recorded by the police during 2002/03. Also, where several people are killed by the same principal suspect, the number of homicides counted is the total number of persons killed rather than the number of incidents. For example, the victims of the Cumbrian shootings on 2 June 2010 are counted as 12 homicides rather than one incident in the 2010/11 data."(emphasis mine). That means that the massive peak in 2003 is an artifact of this methodology. OK, these are just homicides, which can be committed in may ways (Figure 1.2, in all reports), the clearly favorite means of doing it by Brits being sharp instruments. Homicides by shooting hover around a little under 10% for male victims and under 5% for female victims, for an average of around 6-7% overall. These figures seem to have stayed roughly constant since 2006. Now, finally, if we go to Figure 2.1 (in all reports), we'll see, again, a peak of all-firearm related violence in 2003, which correlates with the 2003 peak in homicides. However, if we look just at non-air guns (because I wouldn't count air-guns as firearms in the first place anyway... you know, the "fire" part of "firearm" kinda excludes air-guns), there has been a slight and steady increase up to 2006, and just an even slighter decline ever since.
These are the facts on the ground, the results of the gun-grabbing, which are pretty unimpressive, especially when you consider when the legislation was put in effect. The first episode of gun-grabbing happened after the Hungerford massacre in 1987 and it was the Firearms (Amendment) Act 1988. This one didn't have any measurable result. The second episode of gun-grabbing, the coup-de-grace for gun ownership in England and Whales, happened after the Dunblane school massacre in 1996 and it was the Firearms (Amendment) (No. 2) Act 1997. As we have already seen, homicides have been on a rise until 2003 (6 years later) and just on a steady decline since and gun-related crime has been on a rise until 2006 (9 years later) and just on a very slight decline since, which could be just a matter yearly variation and not even be statistically relevant in the long term. You're talking about correlation not being causation (and that's true), but if you have a causality, correlation is expected, but here you can't see even a slight correlation between draconian gun legislation and crime levels.
Also, the latest slight decrease in homicides and gun violence may just as well be related to the overall decrease of crime rates all over the western world. After all, gun crime and especially gun homicides are a tiny fraction of all crime, and especially, of homicides to start with. The problem is that, from time to time, some moron starts shooting up a place and racks up a double digit bodycount and, in the process, fucks over all the law-abiding gun owners.
These stats don't include the latest spate (and alleged increase) in gun crime in Britain, not to mention that some gang-bangers have started using hand grenades (that one was even caught on camera). Not to mention that London is one of the big cities (if not THE big city) in the world where you have most chances of being knifed. Now some retards were talking about banning pointy kitchen knives because "who needs those anyway?".
Australia:
[2011]
http://www.aic.gov.au/documents/0/B/6/{0B619F44-B18B-47B4-9B59-F87BA643CBAA}facts11.pdf
[2009]
http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=17847
In Oz, the gun-grabbing happened all at once, with the National Firearms Agreement and the subsequent 1996/1997 (forced) gun buyback after the Port-Arthur massacre of 1996. Here (Figure 10 of the AIC report), you have an inflection point on the graph in 2003 (like in Britain). The difference is that, absent those statistical artifacts created by recording all the kills of a serial-killer in that year (like it was the case in Britain), instead of having a massive peak in that year, you just have the beginning of a slight decline. In percentage points, the decrease may be impressive, but the numbers were so small to start with that any decrease would seem significant. The problem is that you can see the same steady decline in other crimes over the same time period. For example, you have the same type of decline in fraud (Table 5). Fraud is, pretty much, the complete opposite of gun crime, so you can't tie both together other than by recalling what I was saying earlier about crime levels, in general, being on a decrease all over the western world lately. However, what the 2011 AIC report doesn't show a history of (assaults, rapes, which are a type of assault, and other types of violent crime) have been on an increase. Why haven't the AIC plotted those graphs I wonder? Maybe they're squeamish about showing how those types of crime have increased. You can't just have people starting to question why that is the case, can you.
Finally, you mention Japan and Canada. I can't talk about Canada because I'm not familiar with it, but you can't compare Japan to Britan, Australia, or any other country for that matter. There are too many and too great cultural differences in order to make any valid comparison when it comes to gun-crime.
Also, all of this, in the end, ignores the core tenet of the Second Amendment. The 2A wasn't created to fight crime or to allow people to hunt or any other such nonsense that is trotted out nowadays by some. The 2A was created to be used as insurance against government tyranny, because the Founding Fathers had just went through an war of independence from a tyrannical government and they said "Never again!". Losing that kind of insurance for the sole benefit of slightly fewer homicides (even more so when crime levels, on aggregate, are going down without anyone having to do anything all over the western world), is misguided to say the least. If you're one of those saying "you're a nutter if you think you could stand against the government and survive", look at how that crazy motherfucker Dorner, alone, had the LAPD act like they were fighting back against an invasion of a superior force. Shooting up
paper-delivering old ladies and other assorted citizens just for fear that hey may be this one guy is pretty telling.