Don't make hasty assumptions. Just because Cain isn't working on anything else now doesn't mean he won't do so in two months.
As for Fong's other project, I don't see why it couldn't also be the unannounced AAA project. So what if they've been working on it for a year? (have they?)
Duraframe300
New ks will be announced in March. I think it won't take long from announcing to getting it on ks. If so, then this project must be in early preproduction (ToN was for a few months before ks). It's needed in order to:
- be 100% sure that it is a project Obsidian wants to make
- know what features should be a part of the pitch
- have concept arts and mockup screen
- can describe game world, mechanics
- know what to put as stretch goals
All of this needs a Lead Designer. Lead Designer will be a guide during a ks pitch. So the LD must be already assigned.
As for Fong: he was the Lead Programmer on SL and AP. It's more possible he will retain his position on the project he was assigned on. If he is assigned to U AAA then it mean the game lost it's previous LP. Possible, but I think it's more possible that there is a new project needing experienced LP which will suck some of SP production team.