Game News Wasteland 3 coming to Fig on October 5th, introducing two player co-op and cinematic conversations

[Russia is over. The end.]

I have to say the pitch video is actually very funny...in a "so bad it's good" kind of way.

No, it was so bad, it went past funny and back into unfunny again.

 

[Mustawd]

I have to say the pitch video is actually very funny...in a "so bad it's good" kind of way.

It needed to be "The Room" level bad to be funny. This was just corny and dumb. Plus all that work to barely give any info on the game. I learned absolutely nothing new about it.

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

I have to say the pitch video is actually very funny...in a "so bad it's good" kind of way.

It needed to be "The Room" level bad to be funny. This was just corny and dumb. Plus all that work to barely give any info on the game. I learned absolutely nothing new about it.

Best example of how to do it are Microsoft ads from the 90s. That shit was intentionally terrible and it was hilarious.

 

[FeelTheRads]

Man, I thought I was at least gonna watch the video for the lulz, but really don't feel like giving them even that. Skipped through the """""gameplay""""" video, meh, gonna skip giving them money and the game as well.

 

[toro]

In September 2016, Fargo stated that inXile had earned $12 million from sales of the game. [Wasteland2]

Good job Fargo.

In 2012 I gave $100+ for Wasteland 2 but now I couldn't care less about Wasteland 3.

 

[Metro]

 

[Latelistener]

8,025 Backers
$1,808,358 of $2,750,000 goal
65% of Goal
29 days 4hours left

 

[vortex]

They'll overpass the goal till sunday. My predictions.

 

[Kev Inkline]

About FIG,

I don't know where to put this, but let's have a look at fig numbers for psy2:

Suppose you have invested and gotten 1 share. Suppose there are no shares outsanding, but all got sold, for a total of 3M in capital or 6000 shares.

For the total aggregated gross receipt of 13,333,333 you get 0.225*0.3*13,333,333 / 6000 = $150 dividends for your share of $500. Nice and dandy, a 30% return, right? Except you cannot transfer the ownership of the share but are stuck with it(*). How many copies would have to be sold? Assuming the price of $60, AGR per unit sold is 41.96, or about 318,000 copies. At 60 dollars each.

So, assuming you cannot get rid of your investment, how many more copies would the have to sell, in order for you to break even? Now, the fig share drops from 22.5% to 9% of AGR. You'd need $350 more dividends, so, by simple calculus each share would need USD 350, or 6000*350=2,100,000 would have to be returned to the investors. Of course, this is 2.7% of the AGR after 13,333,333, which means that the AGR would have to be USD 77,777,777.77. Which requires about 1,853,000 more copies sold. At 60 dollars each.

So, for you to break even, the game would have to sell 2,170,000 copies. At 60 dollars each.



(*).

Transfer Restrictions Imposed on Fig Game Shares – PSY2


No holder of Fig Game Shares – PSY2 shall, directly or indirectly, sell, give, assign, hypothecate, pledge, encumber, grant a security interest in or otherwise dispose of such shares, in whole or in part, except under circumstances that would constitute compliance with the restrictions imposed by Rule 144 under the Securities Act of 1933 on the transfer of securities of issuers that are not subject to the reporting requirements of sections 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Such circumstances must be demonstrated to the Company prior to such disposition, by means of a certification as to the facts of the proposed disposition and any other document or documents, including without limitation an opinion of counsel, as the Company may require in its discretion, each such document being in form and substance satisfactory to the Company in its discretion.

Mustawd, please have look, what do you think?

Source:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1658966/000121390016017201/f253g2092916_figpublishing.htm

 

[toro]

About FIG,

I don't know where to put this, but let's have a look at fig numbers for psy2:

Suppose you have invested and gotten 1 share. Suppose there are no shares outsanding, but all got sold, for a total of 3M in capital or 6000 shares.

For the total aggregated gross receipt of 13,333,333 you get 0.225*0.3*13,333,333 / 6000 = $150 dividends for your share of $500. Nice and dandy, a 30% return, right? Except you cannot transfer the ownership of the share but are stuck with it(*). How many copies would have to be sold? Assuming the price of $60, AGR per unit sold is 41.96, or about 318,000 copies. At 60 dollars each.

So, assuming you cannot get rid of your investment, how many more copies would the have to sell, in order for you to break even? Now, the fig share drops from 22.5% to 9% of AGR. You'd need $350 more dividends, so, by simple calculus each share would need USD 350, or 6000*350=2,100,000 would have to be returned to the investors. Of course, this is 2.7% of the AGR after 13,333,333, which means that the AGR would have to be USD 77,777,777.77. Which requires about 1,853,000 more copies sold. At 60 dollars each.

So, for you to break even, the game would have to sell 2,170,000 copies. At 60 dollars each.



(*).

Transfer Restrictions Imposed on Fig Game Shares – PSY2


No holder of Fig Game Shares – PSY2 shall, directly or indirectly, sell, give, assign, hypothecate, pledge, encumber, grant a security interest in or otherwise dispose of such shares, in whole or in part, except under circumstances that would constitute compliance with the restrictions imposed by Rule 144 under the Securities Act of 1933 on the transfer of securities of issuers that are not subject to the reporting requirements of sections 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Such circumstances must be demonstrated to the Company prior to such disposition, by means of a certification as to the facts of the proposed disposition and any other document or documents, including without limitation an opinion of counsel, as the Company may require in its discretion, each such document being in form and substance satisfactory to the Company in its discretion.

Source:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1658966/000121390016017201/f253g2092916_figpublishing.htm

So, Fig is basically a rip off scheme for publishers ?

 

[Kev Inkline]

So, Fig is basically a rip off scheme for publishers ?

I honestly don't know, but consider the revenue share in the case of psy2: The developer gets between 85.5%-94.6% share of the AGR, and the investors get a share between 0.027%-0.0675%, at different levels of receipts and assuming a max investment of 3M - at least the investors are not on equal footing.

EDIT:

at least the scheme for WL3 looks more promising

 

[Mustawd]

Mustawd, please have look, what do you think?

There are ways to sell it, as the blurb you quoted indicates:

No holder of Fig Game Shares – PSY2 shall, directly or indirectly, sell, give, assign, hypothecate, pledge, encumber, grant a security interest in or otherwise dispose of such shares, in whole or in part, except under circumstances that would constitute compliance with the restrictions imposed by Rule 144 under the Securities Act of 1933 on the transfer of securities of issuers that are not subject to the reporting requirements of sections 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/rule144.htm

At a minimum, you need to hold the securities for at least 6 months. The pain in the ass is if you want to sell your shares to the public, which has its own set of procedures (emphasis mine):

Can the Securities Be Sold Publicly If the Conditions of Rule 144 Have Been Met?
Even if you have met the conditions of Rule 144, you can't sell your restricted securities to the public until you've gotten the legend removed from the certificate. Only a transfer agent can remove a restrictive legend. But the transfer agent won't remove the legend unless you've obtained the consent of the issuer—usually in the form of an opinion letter from the issuer's counsel—that the restrictive legend can be removed. Unless this happens, the transfer agent doesn't have the authority to remove the legend and permit execution of the trade in the marketplace.

To begin the legend removal process, an investor should contact the company that issued the securities, or the transfer agent for the securities, to ask about the procedures for removing a legend. Removing the legend can be a complicated process requiring you to work with an attorney who specializes in securities law.

As the bold part indicates, its up to Fig if you want to sell to the public, so they can kind of screw you if they want to. However, assuming you get the green light, then you are in the secondary market for restricted stock:

Secondary Markets for Illiquid Securities
Changes to Rule 144 that allow more liquidity and increased demand for restricted stock in technology companies have resulted in the creation of a number of online secondary markets for restricted stock and other illiquid securities that otherwise would have thin or no markets. These markets are highly speculative, and restricted stockholders must ensure compliance with what are often complicated rules issued by employers regarding potential sales of restricted shares.

Note the description, "illiquid", which means not easily transferable or sellable. Due to this, the value of the stock would probably take a hit, so you'd probably be forced to end up selling for less than you might have if it was not restricted (like regular public trading).

Also, there are other things that might devalue the stock in the eyes of a potential buyer. For example, what if Fig's Board decide to lower or even stop the dividend altogether (temporarily of course)? Well the buyer would need to make assumptions on when they would receive money. And if you know about the Time Value of Money, then you know that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar tomorrow. Which means that delayed dividends would further devalue your stock; even IF you are legally owed a set amount of dividends.

Point is, you can walk into the secondary market thinking, ok my stock is worth $150 due to sales, but in reality there is a discount due to illiquidity. Then there's a discount due to delayed cash flows; Maybe another discount due to bad video game conditions or issues with digital distribution; [Discount meaning the potential buyer is subtracting value of the stock based on his/her assumptions]. All of a sudden your $150 stock is now worth $100 in the eyes of secondary market investors cuz it's hard to sell and the market for games took a nosedive, and the BOD delayed revenue payments.


Now, what happens if I want to sell my restricted stock to some dude I already know? Is that "the public"? I don't know, since I'm not a lawyer, and sales of restrictive stock is not something I've really seen before. I imagine that you'd need to sell to an accredited investor in order for it to be considered a non-public sale. But at this point that's just speculation.


Either way, the pref stock from Fig is not something easily sold.

 

[Kev Inkline]

Mustawd, please have look, what do you think?

There are ways to sell it, as the blurb you quoted indicates:

Either way, the pref stock from Fig is not something easily sold.

Yes, thanks. Did not want to go that deep into it.

All in all, WL3 dividend policy looks a lot better than what is the case with PSY2 for an individual investor. However, as someone mentioned, once you start to compute NPV, it changes the picture a bit. Uncertain return of .36 four years down the line.

 

[Mustawd]

Did not want to go that deep into it.

Oops

once you start to compute NPV, it changes the picture a bit.

Well totally. Then again, I'm not a finance guy, so I have no real world experience on actually deciding discount rates. I've only audited the assumptions of said rates, never went through the process myself. I think someone mentioned 11%? It'd be interesting to know what the discount rate for EA stock is. Then add a bunch on top.

 

[Kev Inkline]

Did not want to go that deep into it.

Oops

once you start to compute NPV, it changes the picture a bit.

Well totally. Then again, I'm not a finance guy, so I have no real world experience on actually deciding discount rates. I've only audited the assumptions of said rates, never went through the process myself. I think someone mentioned 11%? It'd be interesting to know what the discount rate for EA stock is. Then add a bunch on top.

1k down today, 1360 back on mid-2020 would give you a rate of 9% or so.

 

[Mustawd]

So if EA is at 9%, I'd say that the discount rate for Fig shares would need to be a bit higher for Psychonaughts 2. Especially when you factor in a pattern of operational mismanagement by Doublefine.

Plus I don't think that $1.50 figure included the possibility of fees owed to co-publishers like Sony or Microsoft if they decide to go to consoles. So maybe future cash flows are reduced a bit if you make that assumption.


Not sure if the rate would push it past 11%, which someone said would give you NPV of 0.


Dunno. Finance classes and the CFA exams were a while back. Am I thinking about this right?

 

[Kev Inkline]

So if EA is at 9%, I'd say that the discount rate for Fig shares would need to be a bit higher for Psychonaughts 2. Especially when you factor in a pattern of operational mismanagement by Doublefine.

Plus I don't think that $1.50 figure included the possibility of fees owed to co-publishers like Sony or Microsoft if they decide to go to consoles. So maybe future cash flows are reduced a bit if you make that assumption.


Not sure if the rate would push it past 11%, which someone said would give you NPV of 0.


Dunno. Finance classes and the CFA exams were a while back. Am I thinking about this right?

Sorry, I was talking about WL3, under the assumption that you'd just get a lump sum return of 1360 one time at 1.6.2020 having invested 1k today. That's NPV 0, at 9% rate.

But the sheer number of units sold required for break even for a PSY2 investment, 2.2M, is quite an amount. Given the fact that psy1 has not yet sold that many, and it was published 2005 - not to mention the average price, which definitely isn't $60.

 

[MrBuzzKill]

Maybe silly of me to ask, considering the usual level of altruism around here, but can somebody summarize the last 25 pages? I can't read so much forum at work but I really wanna know the overall Codex reaction to this.

 

[Mustawd]

1. Fig can have complicated agreements that an investor should read
2. Psychonaughts 2 agreement is weird because it allows Doublefine to spend P2 money on anything related to Doublefine or Fig. Not just the game
3. Fig might be a crappy investment
4. Some people might not care Fig is a crappy investment

 

[Darkzone]

After watching the pitch videos i admit that they are slowly learning to use the Unity3d engine. But still no money from me this time.

Maybe silly of me to ask, considering the usual level of altruism around here, but can somebody summarize the last 25 pages? I can't read so much forum at work but I really wanna know the overall Codex reaction to this.

Unity3d is shit. Fargo is a snake oil salesman. Wasteland 2 was crap. Fig is a shady investment scam at least with Suckpuppet Master Tim Schaefer, while WL3 could possibly pay off in 4-5 years. And some people (Intinium) never learn, while others grow up and learn from their mistakes.
But the worst is: WL3 will be 2 players game!!!