Game News Divinity: Original Sin 2 Kickstarter Update #43: The Undead Revealed

[Ruzen]

On one side people getting overexcited over idle animations and raining AI behavior script in PoE2 and here where the Larian pours all their ambition into it. Not that I fanatic about "a side" I am excited about poe2 too but the difference is like day and night.

 

[Haba]

Wow! Their Collector's Edition is soooooooo much nicer than the first Kickstarter one.... good job Larian!!

No it is not. It is another unwieldy, awkwardly sized box that will go straight to eBay. Original Sin CE box was the only one that did it right: it had the god damn game logo in front, name on the sides and screenshots in the back.

D:OS CE can go in here:

D:OSII CE can go in trash.

 

[Quantomas]

Seeing that Larian has built a sizeable team and invested a large amount of money, they can't go niche. As Adam Smith put it, DOS2 is systemic storytelling at its best. Lots of nice features and a ton of fun to be had for sure. Will I play it? Likely. But I hope their main story is good and attractive in a non-cheesy way. Let's see whether their sales can go skyrim!

 

[Zed]

if OS2 becomes even remotely as successful as Skyrim I will record myself eating shit

 

[Kev Inkline]

if OS2 becomes even remotely as successful as Skyrim I will record myself eating shit

Technically, Serpent in the Staglands is remotely as successful as Skyrim, so OS2 will definitely be, too. So you better mentally prepare for recording that shit eating grin, you don't want to chicken out like Drog did, now do you?

 

[Zed]

if OS2 becomes even remotely as successful as Skyrim I will record myself eating shit

Technically, Serpent in the Staglands is remotely as successful as Skyrim, so OS2 will definitely be, too. So you better mentally prepare for recording that shit eating grin, you don't want to chicken out like Drog did, now do you?

you are wrong

 

[Darkzone]

I think that Larian has become to large for a financial failure, at this stage. At least they have now a quite extended engine, so they can continue even after a financial flop after they choped of some unnecessary meat. But i honestly believe that DOS2 will have similar if not larger sales than DOS. Since DOS is an acclaimed success of over 1.2 million copies, then similar numbers are quite possible for DOS2. Also DOS has on metacritic even for consoles a good rating. This means that even the console peasants liked DOS, then they will like DOS2 even more.
Technically DOS2 cannot fail, but we have seen horses puke before pharmacies.

 

[Infinitron]

Protip: If you want an indication of how well the game might do, check out Larian's YouTube view numbers. Good measure of organic popularity.

 

[Mark Richard]

Skyrim numbers might be a bit far-fetched, but I expect DOS2 will do better than its predecessor. Larian have been making waves by releasing an early access version in a polished state (rather than selling a mere concept), and getting involved heavily with the only people who have any real power with consumers - Youtube personalities and Twitch streamers. The steam page is flooded with positive user reviews.

 

[LESS T_T]

For one, it has more Steam followers (148,823, who opted in for announcement notifications) than Arkane's Prey (135,908).

(FYI, numbers of other comparable games: PoE - 152,380, XCOM 2 - 256,729, Wasteland 2 - 90,590, T:ToN - 57,483, Tyranny - 89,737)

 

[Darkzone]

Protip: If you want an indication of how well the game might do, check out Larian's YouTube view numbers. Good measure of organic popularity.

We need a factor for the transformation of views to sales. If we look at inXiles views then and derive from there the factor then it looks rather bad for DOS2. Because overall Larians views are only 2x - 3X higher than the avg views for inXiles T:ToN. The views for the Bard's Tale is even around that of the DOS2 video viwes and also WL3 has higher anticipation than DOS2 derived from the avg views. I had also the idea of the comparison of the Youtube views, but rejected it due to a look on the inXiles channel.
And therefore i'm rather conservative on the outlook of this 'new' media and derive it rather from the previous success. It functions for the film industry, so i would also guess that it goes for the gaming industry. Medal of Honor X and Call of Duty XY are the proof of concept for the franchise success thing.

 

[Lahey]

D:OS2 will sell a million before the end of the year, solidifying Larian's position as premier crpg dev.

 

[DeepOcean]

This game will sell a shitload of copies and this is good. I bet on 2 million over time.

 

[Darkzone]

This game will sell a shitload of copies and this is good. I bet on 2 million over time.

That is very probable and i assume that it will have above the 1.2 million sales across different platforms.
But it does not compare to the amount of average views per video on the producers channel. Based on the assumption that youtube video views predict sale numbers. If views times factor X equal sale numbers we could sales/views is factor X.
DOS is hard to avg, but it is below an avg 40k views per video. According to Steamspy it has 1.416k owners.
DOS2 has according to the thumbs rule around 50k-60k views. Video with Matt Mercer is an outlier with 260k.
Wasteland 2 had between 55k - 350k views that could be on avg around 130k views per Video. According to Steamspy it has around 760k owners.
Wasteland 3 has currently 4 videos that have on avg 85k views.
Bard's Tale 4 has 9 videos that have on avg 75k views.
T:ToN has above avg 40k views per video. According to Steamsyp it has 150k owners.

So according to this metric (not my suggestion) the sales should be from top sell to low sales: Wasteland 2, Wasteland 3, Bard' Tale 4, DOS2, T:ToN and DOS.
But we know that DOS sold in higher numbers than WL2 and T:ToN, while the views predict that WL2 should have had much larger sales than DOS.
Therefore looking at the Youtube videos avg views has limited predictive capabilities towards the sale numbers, at least on this scale or range. Naturally if a game is viewed 10 times it has certainly lower sales expectations then a game viewed 10k times.

 

[Infinitron]

That's a bad comparison because inXile puts out mostly trailer-type videos (=widely shared, short and easy to watch) while most of the videos on Larian's channel are 15-20 minute Swen updates that only fans will be interested in.

Larian is getting tens of thousands of views on 20 minute videos of a goofy old guy with an accent babbling about stuff, the hype is real

 

[CRD]

To be fair, Sven is a pretty cool guy, and he makes the videos fun to see even if is nothing really important.

 

[Bohrain]

Protip: If you want an indication of how well the game might do, check out Larian's YouTube view numbers. Good measure of organic popularity.

We need a factor for the transformation of views to sales. If we look at inXiles views then and derive from there the factor then it looks rather bad for DOS2. Because overall Larians views are only 2x - 3X higher than the avg views for inXiles T:ToN. The views for the Bard's Tale is even around that of the DOS2 video viwes and also WL3 has higher anticipation than DOS2 derived from the avg views. I had also the idea of the comparison of the Youtube views, but rejected it due to a look on the inXiles channel.
And therefore i'm rather conservative on the outlook of this 'new' media and derive it rather from the previous success. It functions for the film industry, so i would also guess that it goes for the gaming industry. Medal of Honor X and Call of Duty XY are the proof of concept for the franchise success thing.

T:ToN was a shit game though. I have faith that word of mouth serves D:OS2 far better post release.

 

[Darkzone]

That's a bad comparison because inXile puts out mostly trailer-type videos (=widely shared, short and easy to watch) while most of the videos on Larian's channel are 15-20 minute Swen updates that only fans will be interested in.
Larian is getting tens of thousands of views on 20 minute videos of a goofy old guy with an accent babbling about stuff, the hype is real

So you are suggesting an second variable that equates to the statement that a shorter video is more watched. So that Sales = (avg) views per video * (avg) video time * factor X.
I have to count through the video updates, but even the first look shows that that is not necessary true.
Wasteland 2 most watched is the 'Wasteland 2 First look' 349k (720p) + 58k views with a lenght of 17 minutes. The second most watched video is a 18 minutes Prison Level Demo with 372k.
Wasteland 3 has a to small sample size but the Fig Campaign Pitch with over 6 minutes has 61k views while shorter videos have less views.
Bard's Tale 4 has short vidoes, but the combat first look with over 6 minutes has 146k views while the shorter videos have less views with the exception of the first In-Engine Video with 326k views which is also the most watched.
T:ToN has overall short videos, but the shortest have also the least views.

For DOS2 i have choosen only the true KS Update videos with an supprise for you: The early DOS2 KS videos are shorter and have less views than the later videos. DOS2 videos have on avg length of 11 minutes.
The first 15 (from 33) videos have only a total length of around 114 minutes, while the later 18 videos have a length of 231 minutes. On avg this is a total play time of aound 7 minutes with a avg of 23.2k views. The later once have on avg a length of 14 minutes and 50k-60k views.

For DOS i will spare me the work.

 

[Valky]

I think my first playthrough I'm going to make my character undead for the access to stuff undead are easier at doing, like living through areas with that death fog or lots of poison. And then choose the red prince. How do we get the other two characters in singleplayer? Are they locked to npc slots or will it ever be possible to have more than 1 character that you made in the creator?

Based on my experience enjoying the fuck out of D:OS in summer 2014, I think the improvements Larian has made in scaling up to D:OS2 could make this game a genuine classic if it's good.

if OS2 becomes even remotely as successful as Skyrim I will record myself eating shit

You better not pull a Drog.

 

[lukaszek]

deterministic system > RNG

 

[Lahey]

T:ToN was a shit game though. I have faith that word of mouth serves D:OS2 far better post release.

Pre-release as well it seems, considering OS2 has roughly 50k more owners than TToN according to steamspy.

Darkzone I admire your autism but let's put it to better use. Here are Larian, InXile, and Obsidian's steamspy numbers. What do your elf-eyes see?

 

[DeepOcean]

Numanuma sold 50% more than Choplifter HD! How many times did you guys heard of a success like that?

 

[Darkzone]

So you are suggesting an second variable that equates to the statement that a shorter video is more watched.

its not what he said. Its about type of video, not just about length.

Despite the pain of a trainings back injury i have done the correct thing, even if it doesn't sound so. Infinitrons exact words and definition was: inXile puts out mostly trailer-type videos (=widely shared, short and easy to watch)
If you go through this then trailer type videos have 3 attributes (widely shared, short, easy to watch).
''widely shared' is a resultant of different factors which Infinitron has not defined, and threfore i cannot work with it.
'easy to watch' is not quantifiable, at least not for me. How will you value a cheerful goofy old man vs a bad and boring explanation of game play? Also Larians videos are not only showing Swen, but many are about game play so that they are quite varied.
The only attribute that i can evaluate through statistical means is the 'short' or the length of a video.

On the topic of 'easy to watch' i have to say that i prefer Swens videos, because his cheerful goofyness translates to me. And he seems passionate about that what he is doing and his team seem to like him. While if i watch inXiles gameplay i always think that they should give up producing games, because they have no passion about it. The most interesting thing about Larians KS was for me how it worked on me. Two videos per week with Swen generated an Larian/Swen addiction, comparable to a beloved series. While inXiles videos are just boring and not even technical enough for me.
I watch each video from Larian and inXile several times, therefore i'm also responsible for more views on both sides.

Darkzone I admire your autism but let's put it to better use. Here are Larian, InXile, and Obsidian's steamspy numbers. What do your elf-eyes see?

Dependent from which angle i look at it, i is see different aspects. So before i write essays here, i would rather raise the question: what are you aiming at? The Avg derived data is on the right side therefore i think that you mean specific game departments, compared to each other with their release dates.
If Obsidian didn't had such high running costs, then they would be in a quite good position, but certainly Larian is taking the lead, if PoE2 is not an hit on the scale of DOS. My bets are on Larian, as DOS 2 already has very good numbers compared to the released Tyranny and T:ToN. But it is also currently the only known thing in the Larian pipeline.
---To Edit--

 

[Lahey]

Dependent from which angle i look at it, i is see different aspects. So before i write essays here, i would rather raise the question: what are you aiming at?

I'm interested in reading as much or as little as you wish to share.

The Avg derived data is on the right side

Each game also has more specific data on its own page. These figures are only rough estimates.

 

[lukaszek]

deterministic system > RNG