Putting the 'role' back in role-playing games since 2002.
Donate to Codex
Good Old Games
  • Welcome to rpgcodex.net, a site dedicated to discussing computer based role-playing games in a free and open fashion. We're less strict than other forums, but please refer to the rules.

    "This message is awaiting moderator approval": All new users must pass through our moderation queue before they will be able to post normally. Until your account has "passed" your posts will only be visible to yourself (and moderators) until they are approved. Give us a week to get around to approving / deleting / ignoring your mundane opinion on crap before hassling us about it. Once you have passed the moderation period (think of it as a test), you will be able to post normally, just like all the other retards.

Piracy crisis "overblown" according to Tom Jubert

LCJr.

Erudite
Joined
Jan 16, 2003
Messages
2,469
http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/54578

Almost every day we hear about the demise of the PC due to high levels of piracy. Crytek's Cevat Yerli recently put the ratio of genuine vs illegal copies of Crysis at 1:15 - but what's the reality?

I'm pretty damn sure Crysis - which Yerli claims 'lead the charts in piracy by a large margin' - isn't suffering to the degree those numbers suggest, and I can tell you why. The online gaming service GameShadow uses its client side software to automatically patch the games of over 1 million subscribers. As it does this, the software also (anonymously and voluntarily) records various details about those users' games, and filters them back out through a reporting tool.

Amongst other fascinating data, The GameShadow Metrics service detects the version of games installed, based on things like the executable file. Every so often the software finds an unofficial game version (i.e. an install that's been cracked, or uses a No-CD).

What that means is I can tell you the ratio of legal vs illegal Crysis installs in GameShadow's UK customer base is more like 7:3, while in the US it's closer to 5:1 - a far less bleak scenario.


Note using a no-cd is being counted as a pirated copy which may not be the case.
 

Balor

Arcane
Joined
Dec 29, 2004
Messages
5,186
Location
Russia
Well, pirates may not patch it at all...
However, I can bet my ass that most people who pirated just d/led it as a 'demo' to see if it works on their piece-of-ship rigs, found it unplayable and promptly uninstalled it.
 

uhjghvt

Scholar
Joined
Aug 7, 2008
Messages
463
I crack all my games even if I buy them just to get rid of the shitty drm
 

Shannow

Waster of Time
Joined
Sep 15, 2006
Messages
6,386
Location
Finnegan's Wake
Huh? I don't patch pirated games, but sometimes crack bought ones...
Don't trust a statistic you didn't forge yourself.
It is impossible to determine the exact amount of pirated copies. The method here doesn't work, looking at trackers doesn't work (a few years ago I saw a statistic that was based on trackers and claimed that Fallout had been downloaded some 2 billion times), nothing I have heard of works.
And even if you had a counting method that worked and discounted multiple downloads (you never know if a version works, arr, arr) by the same person, you still couldn't tell how much piracy "hurts" the industry because you can't tell if the pirate would have bought the game if piracy hadn't been an option or if the pirate realy only "demoed".
 

MetalCraze

Arcane
Joined
Jul 3, 2007
Messages
21,104
Location
Urkanistan
in before EA cries about how spore didn't sell because of piracy (and not because the game was a shallow mediocrity of course)
 

Ogg

Prophet
Patron
Joined
Jan 14, 2008
Messages
1,005
Location
River Seine
Codex 2012 Serpent in the Staglands Dead State Divinity: Original Sin Project: Eternity Torment: Tides of Numenera Codex USB, 2014 Shadorwun: Hong Kong Divinity: Original Sin 2 BattleTech
skyway said:
in before EA cries about how spore didn't sell because of piracy (and not because the game was a shallow mediocrity of course)

don't forget invasive drm
 

Fez

Erudite
Joined
May 18, 2004
Messages
7,954
Spore's ratings have been completely ruined on Amazon now. Nearly two thousand one star reviews on Amazon.com. What is interesting is how many people are complaining about how bad the game is, even ignoring the terrible DRM situation.
 

Fez

Erudite
Joined
May 18, 2004
Messages
7,954
Pathetic. What's the point in having them if they are going to censor the reviews?
 

Fez

Erudite
Joined
May 18, 2004
Messages
7,954
It looks like Digg is censoring things too. Look at the discussion in your link, Lestat. One of the Digg links that had thousands of Diggs on the DRM subject mysteriously vanished. How much is EA paying for this preferential treatment?
 

serch

Magister
Joined
Mar 13, 2006
Messages
1,391
Location
Behind mistary, in front of conspirancy
This DRM thing is really stupid. I've bought every game Bioware has developed, I even have several copies of some of them. Not something to be praised here, I know. I haven't bought Mass Effect, of course. Its DRM is almost certainly legally null in the EU, but I'm to busy to take the time to sue EA, instead of simply download a crack if I decide to buy the game, which I think I won't. I wonder how many traditional customers are holding tight their pockets or turning to piracy due to abusive DRM.
 

MetalCraze

Arcane
Joined
Jul 3, 2007
Messages
21,104
Location
Urkanistan
Fez said:
It looks like Digg is censoring things too.
That isn't new. During the failed Anon vs Scifag war Digg was censoring stuff too because they were threatened with legal action from Scientology
 
Unwanted

RaXz

Unwanted
Joined
Sep 10, 2008
Messages
837
Location
Netherlands
There were over a thousand reviews, but now it totals about 200. It seems that selling your soul for some money is getting trendy. Just bend over and pull your pants down.

Maybe piracy is the problem, and a lot of the people that wrote the reviews on amazon are criminals. Is it me or is anti-piracy a bit like anti-terrorism? They seem to use it to get their control grid on the masses. Guilty until innocence is proven seems to be the mentality. :?
 

Texas Red

Whiner
Joined
Sep 9, 2006
Messages
7,044
RaXz said:
There were over a thousand reviews, but now it totals about 200. It seems that selling your soul for some money is getting trendy. Just bend over and pull your pants down.

Maybe piracy is the problem, and a lot of the people that wrote the reviews on amazon are criminals. Is it me or is anti-piracy a bit like anti-terrorism? They seem to use it to get their control grid on the masses. Guilty until innocence is proven seems to be the mentality. :?

If you're not a pirate you have nothing to fear.
 

JarlFrank

I like Thief THIS much
Patron
Joined
Jan 4, 2007
Messages
33,252
Location
KA.DINGIR.RA.KI
Steve gets a Kidney but I don't even get a tag.
I pirated Spore and it works perfectly. And that's the problem: piracy rises because DRMs are so fucking horrible that the legal customers get screwed while the pirates can install the game as often as they want, and play it without hassle.

The game's mostly boring btw, the only interesting stages were the first two, everything else is meh. The space stage is okay. But the stages where you build a city like in an RTS... holy fuck even the original Warcraft is better and more complex than that.
 

St. Toxic

Arcane
Joined
Jun 9, 2006
Messages
9,098
Location
Yemen / India
Same deal here. I'm thinking of buying it, doh, just to see how the auto-download function works. :M

Balor said:
I can bet my ass that most people who pirated just d/led it as a 'demo' to see if it works on their piece-of-ship rigs

Arr, matey! Let's find out if crrrrrysis worrrks on tis' ere' beut of a ship-rig! Arr. ( For the record: it worked fine, but was way too shallow and boring. )
 

SuicideBunny

(ノ ゜Д゜)ノ ︵ ┻━┻
Joined
May 1, 2007
Messages
8,943
Serpent in the Staglands Dead State Torment: Tides of Numenera
St. Toxic said:
Same deal here. I'm thinking of buying it, doh, just to see how the auto-download function works. :M
it downloads every piece of shit it can find, and since every time you make and save a change to something, it gets published, that's a lot of really shitty or even unpainted stuff with 1337 or non-latin names.
sporecasts help discriminate downloading, but when you restrict dl stuff to buddies only, the ability to make or subscribe to them disappears entirely.

there is no possibility for you to say that you don't want something (manually deleting the png from the folder being your only option), and you can't block specific creatures or users, because someone at maxis thought that you don't deserve to not download all 300 individual spore versions of every single fucking pokemon in existence.

and either the auto download, or the copy protection lead to really weird bugs, like all of a sudden all but the hard-coded (grox) ships in the game being replaced by the ship you made for space, and so on.
 

uhjghvt

Scholar
Joined
Aug 7, 2008
Messages
463
wait, you can publish a spore creature and it automatically gets sent to everyone else who has the game? oh god I can't wait until someone finds a buffer overflow and hijacks the computer of every single spore player in the world :lol: that'll be a fitting punishment for maxis for hyping such a crappy game
 

Xi

Arcane
Joined
Jan 28, 2006
Messages
6,101
Location
Twilight Zone
The real question is whether a ratio of 0:1 would increase sales? I'm leaning toward the "yes" side, but how much of an increase is definitely debatable. 10-30%, or more?
 

Damned Registrations

Furry Weeaboo Nazi Nihilist
Joined
Feb 24, 2007
Messages
15,091
In the short term. In the long term... people would likely get more tightfisted about what they're willing to buy. Excepting the drones that will buy anything hyped to them, whom, of course, make up 90% of sales and aren't affected one way or another by pretty much anything but marketing budget.
 

Shannow

Waster of Time
Joined
Sep 15, 2006
Messages
6,386
Location
Finnegan's Wake
Xi said:
The real question is whether a ratio of 0:1 would increase sales? I'm leaning toward the "yes" side, but how much of an increase is definitely debatable. 10-30%, or more?
0.1-0.3% or less? Debating without available facts is kinda pointless. But you go on. We know you like it.
 

Talby

Arcane
Patron
Joined
Mar 15, 2008
Messages
5,518
Codex USB, 2014
uhjghvt said:
wait, you can publish a spore creature and it automatically gets sent to everyone else who has the game? oh god I can't wait until someone finds a buffer overflow and hijacks the computer of every single spore player in the world :lol: that'll be a fitting punishment for maxis for hyping such a crappy game

It actually just downloads them at random while you're online, or when you subscribe to sporecasts or get them manually. There's a million creations uploaded every day, so it wouldn't be feasible to send all creations to all players as soon as they're created.
 

Xi

Arcane
Joined
Jan 28, 2006
Messages
6,101
Location
Twilight Zone
Shannow said:
Xi said:
The real question is whether a ratio of 0:1 would increase sales? I'm leaning toward the "yes" side, but how much of an increase is definitely debatable. 10-30%, or more?
0.1-0.3% or less? Debating without available facts is kinda pointless. But you go on. We know you like it.

My bad, I didn't realize that this guy was being factual and not just spouting his opinion.

I'll quote a random person from the comments @ shacknews. These opinions are just as valid as this Tom Jubert fellow, who happens to be a blogger.

Wow...I can't believe shack front paged this. So the CEO of a major development studio says piracy is a problem, and a game writer/blogger comes out to say it isn't so, and you put it as frontpage news?

Seriously, all due respect to Tom Jubert, who I've never heard of (and whom I'm sure has never heard of me), but regardless of who he is, Game Writer is in no way an authoritative position to speak about piracy/game sales/business models/game technology in general. Any CEO of a major game development studio is going to know 1000x more about game sales models than a writer. A producer? A programmer? A designer? Maybe they'll have more insight. But seriously, shouldn't the credentials of the person laying down the criticisms be drawn into question before giving them equal front page real estate? Isn't that required with some degree of journalistic integrity?

My only assumption is that you posted this article to insight conversation about the topic, which could have simply been done with a post in Latest Chatty called "I think Cevat Yerli is full of crap".
 

The Dude

Liturgist
Joined
Mar 17, 2007
Messages
727
Location
An abandoned hurricane.
Sometimes you are an idiot Xi. One guy posts some data from a patching service and draws conclusions from it. Another guy makes some random comment on how that guy is full of shit and how devs are gods knowing everything about the sales/piracy for their game. Yeah, both are as valid. :roll: FYI, there is NO fucking way of knowing the actual number of pirated copies. The channels are too many, the data sources too diverse. Sure, you can check a few and pad this and that together, but the number would at most be a very weak estimate. I find i likely that the 15:1 just is something the Crytek dude pulled out of his ass, since he has an interest in making the "failure" :)lol:) of his game blameable on something else rather than the actual game itself.
 

Xi

Arcane
Joined
Jan 28, 2006
Messages
6,101
Location
Twilight Zone
The Dude said:
Sometimes you are an idiot Xi. One guy posts some data from a patching service and draws conclusions from it. Another guy makes some random comment on how that guy is full of shit and how devs are gods knowing everything about the sales/piracy for their game. Yeah, both are as valid. :roll:

So we agree that it's all just opinions? Good, because I was being attacked for lacking factual evidence. My point was that there is no reason to believe either side, which is why I brought up the most relevant point. What kind of sales difference would there be if piracy was at a 0:1 ratio. Obviously we can't know for sure, but it makes me chuckle every time someone believes that nothing would change. Maybe it would not be as significant as some would like, but lets not pretend that 0:1 would have no effect. It would!

The Dude said:
FYI, there is NO fucking way of knowing the actual number of pirated copies. The channels are too many, the data sources too diverse. Sure, you can check a few and pad this and that together, but the number would at most be a very weak estimate. I find i likely that the 15:1 just is something the Crytek dude pulled out of his ass, since he has an interest in making the "failure" :)lol:) of his game blameable on something else rather than the actual game itself.

It's a statistic that is highly interpretable, but even if the numbers were 5:1 it's quite staggering. Then if we take this 5:1 ratio and break it down to a 1.5:1 ratio it's still quite staggering. There is an effect, and this is the undebatable point.

As for the CEO interpreting the numbers as to promote his personal agenda, you're probably right, but that doesn't mean he's completely wrong. Again, imagine a 0:1 ratio and think about how the environment would change.

People tend to purchase more if they have to. It's not the other way around, as in, if people are able to steal more it wouldn't affect sales.

Are we also to believe that more people wouldn't physically steal if there were less enforceable laws preventing it? No, instead they save up the money and buy what they want. Thus is the way the system works, and is why piracy causes a break down.

(Insert Random - Capitalism is the root of all evil HERE)

As always, my point is that there are other, better ways to increase the quality of games being made. Instead of attacking it from these angles, instead most of you resort to digital theft. How does the theft of games increase the likely hood that they will make something you like? They have no guarantee that you will ever purchase, so why take the risk? Then we see how they simply aren't taking the risk anymore. They're moving to the target audiences that do purchase and all we get is shiny turds.

What if it is later determined that piracy was the cause of the decline in gaming quality? As in, developers started focusing on the audience that was most likely to purchase, utterly removing all aspects of game design the pirates like, because the pirates are too daft to purchase them anyway. Then we get this vicious cycle of games degenerating into an even worse state, not a better one as some may believe, because now everything is designed to be highly marketable instead of highly desirable.

We could probably look at this from different angles, but this is just one suggestion, and I may be wrong. I will give you that.
 

As an Amazon Associate, rpgcodex.net earns from qualifying purchases.
Back
Top Bottom