Piracy crisis "overblown" according to Tom Jubert

[aron searle]

Re: Piracy crisis "overblown" according to Tom Jub

Almost every day we hear about the demise of the PC due to high levels of piracy. Crytek's Cevat Yerli recently put the ratio of genuine vs illegal copies of Crysis at 1:15 - but what's the reality?

I'm pretty damn sure Crysis - which Yerli claims 'lead the charts in piracy by a large margin' - isn't suffering to the degree those numbers suggest, and I can tell you why. The online gaming service GameShadow uses its client side software to automatically patch the games of over 1 million subscribers. As it does this, the software also (anonymously and voluntarily.................

And I stopped reading there.

 

[uhjghvt]

It's a statistic that is highly interpretable, but even if the numbers were 5:1 it's quite staggering.

try reading the op again

Crytek's Cevat Yerli recently put the ratio of genuine vs illegal copies of Crysis at 1:15 - but what's the reality

ratio of legal vs illegal Crysis installs in GameShadow's UK customer base is more like 7:3, while in the US it's closer to 5:1

in other words in the UK 30% of the games were pirated and in the US 16.7% were pirated

 

[Xi]

Wow, talk about a bias, the "blogger" has no factual information or gathered statistics. All he's done is manipulate and alter the provided statistics to argue an invalid point.

"Hey I don't like the real numbers so I will change them!"

Your numbers are absolutely bunk because they have no factual basis other than a misrepresentation of the data. The blogger doesn't even provide examples for why the numbers would be lower and doesn't provide any other statistical information to explain why we should lower them more.

So keep on believing in your bias. If it could be shown that piracy had zero affect I would believe that, but as is, there is more in favor of it doing the opposite of good.

There's no doubt that PC gaming suffers due to piracy - and to a considerably greater extent than console titles.

Even the author of that article agrees that piracy is causing a problem! Wow, omg!

 

[Damned Registrations]

People tend to purchase more if they have to. It's not the other way around, as in, if people are able to steal more it wouldn't affect sales.

Are we also to believe that more people wouldn't physically steal if there were less enforceable laws preventing it? No, instead they save up the money and buy what they want. Thus is the way the system works, and is why piracy causes a break down.

Thats not really the case either. Suppose everyone in the world could acquire a personal helicopter for free (Not businesses, just for personal use.) Lots of people would get one, of course. Fantastically rich people might still buy them just so they can have a fancier one. However, if you removed the method of getting them freely, it's not as though any of those people getting them for free are going to forgo everything else they spend money on for the sake of buying a helicopter just because it'd be nicer to have than nothing. A helicopter is nice, but it's not nicer than it's equivalent value in assorted clothing, food, computer hardware, a car, etc.

Likewise, having a shitty game for free is nicer than having nothing for free, but having a shitty game for 70$ isn't nicer than other things I could get for 70$.

I would imagine removing pirated copies from the equation would have a similiar effect on computer games as removing rental copies from the equation would for console games. People who can only afford to rent or pirate won't suddenly start buying, there will be less word of mouth information about the games, and the people who have cash to burn on the latest thing will still be burning it.

One thing it would certainly be EXCELLENT for though would be the freeware games scene.

 

[Xi]

I find it hard to believe that someone, given some time to work and save up, couldn't afford $50-100. The argument's that use this claim are bogus. Using a Helicopter as your example is ridiculous too, because it's not like people who actually purchase PC games are rich, or that the cost of a video game is even remotely close to a helicopter.

Again, if video games weren't free to download, people would be forced to purchase. This would drive sales whether you agree with me or not.

 

[Damned Registrations]

Sure, anyone can afford 50-100$ in a vacuum with nothing else to buy. However, the number of people willing to spend 50-100$ on a shitty game as opposed to even say, junkfood, let alone things like a new TV, computer, some clothes, DVDs, movie tickets, etc. are the same ones who are willing to spend that money on anything hyped for them. Video games are just a very poor value for their price on average- thats why they market them to people too stupid to realize this or with plenty of disposable income (Like ones who can afford the shiniest computer with the most overpriced GFX card.)

If water weren't free from the tap, I'd drink pop fom 7-11 instead. It's cheaper than bottled water. I wouldn't be forced to buy overpriced water, I'd be forced to drink something different.

 

[Xi]

Sure, anyone can afford 50-100$ in a vacuum with nothing else to buy.

Yep, they can afford it, they just choose to buy other things, and since there is no inherent right to entertainment, it comes with both a choice and a consequence. Like it or not, they must sacrifice a weekend at the theater or the next Vanilla Ice CD. That's how the entire system works. You purchase what is most desirable to you at the time. You don't get it all because getting it all doesn't happen in a vacuum either.

You're supplying the same old excuses that have been defeated numerous times over. Piracy has no legitimate point in a capitalistic system. It will not win the argument because it is far too flawed. Hell, even if we argue from a socialistic communist approach, how many video games are being developed in these countries? Nothing is stopping them, and yet your idea that games should be made for free still does not work. Create a development studio in a socialistic country and then freely distribute it to the world, I do not care. I just highly doubt it will happen, ever. And if it does, will it compete?

 

[Damned Registrations]

A bunch of strawman crap.

I never argued that games should be made for free, I'm just arguing that piracy isn't causing some massive void in the sales. Your argument (Your ONLY argument) makes the very stupid assumption that people who pirate games are going to burst into flames if they don't get their fix by suddenly changing where they spend their income, and that they never buy games to begin with. You've no evidence of either of those things. It's the kind of stupid logic the war on drugs is based on: if it's more difficult their way, then they'll just HAVE to do it our way. Such is not the case.

 

[DarkUnderlord]

However, the number of people willing to spend 50-100$ on a shitty game

I always like how pirates only illegally copy the "shitty" games for their brand new bleeding edge PCs with shiney new graphics cards. If you can afford the PC, you can afford to pay for the software. Very few products allow you a free sample before you buy or allow you to return it. Why should games be different? Buy some soap and a shaver, use them and when you don't like them, see if you can get them returned.

as opposed to even say, junkfood, let alone things like a new TV, computer, some clothes, DVDs, movie tickets, etc. are the same ones who are willing to spend that money on anything hyped for them.

Pirates are clearly the health-food champions of the world. No junkfood for them! They don't buy into hype.

Video games are just a very poor value for their price on average

If all these video games pirates download are so shitty, pirates must be the ones with the pretty piss-poor taste. I guess all pirated music is shitty too?

If water weren't free from the tap, I'd drink pop fom 7-11 instead. It's cheaper than bottled water. I wouldn't be forced to buy overpriced water, I'd be forced to drink something different.

That's pretty much what Xi said. Add the cost and people need to make choices (incidentally, you clearly don't pay the water bill as water from the tap isn't free).

Thats not really the case either. Suppose everyone in the world could acquire a personal helicopter for free (Not businesses, just for personal use.) Lots of people would get one, of course. Fantastically rich people might still buy them just so they can have a fancier one. However, if you removed the method of getting them freely, it's not as though any of those people getting them for free are going to forgo everything else they spend money on for the sake of buying a helicopter just because it'd be nicer to have than nothing. A helicopter is nice, but it's not nicer than it's equivalent value in assorted clothing, food, computer hardware, a car, etc.

Speaking of a bunch of strawman crap, a proportion of those people would certainly purchase a helicopter. To demonstrate it more clearly, suppose cars were free. I can tell you right now that an absolute fuck-ton of people who currently pay a lot of money for cars would just take the free option (even $500 for an old bomb is a lot of money to some people). If purchasing was the only choice, a fuck-ton of people would have no choice but to pay. The only problem we have is we've got no real idea what proportion that is. If you're forced to pay, you make a decision on how much you're willing to pay and you bite the bullet and save up for it. Buy new or second-hand? Buy that car or the other car?

 

[Damned Registrations]

Sure we do. It's the same proportion of pirates as the proportion of buyers that would still pay if you doubled the price of video games. All that would happen is raising the price of the product by X amount.

Also, find me a product costing over 50$ you can't return within a few days that isn't disposable. Oh wait, there are none, because thats a completely sleazy business practice that absolves all responsibility on the part of the manufacturer. I wonder what kind of fucking cunt would do that?

 

[sportforredneck]

If all these video games pirates download are so shitty, pirates must be the ones with the pretty piss-poor taste. I guess all pirated music is shitty too?

Well I did pirate Do You Like Horny Bunnies purely for the LP, and that's a shitty game. So depending on circumstances, people will download shitty games. A try before you buy type thing for software seems fair, I mean it's the same as DVDs, you can rent DVDs before you buy them to see if you like them. Of course that involves paying to rent, but there's just not a system like that really available for PC games, besides the "trial for an hour" type thing which most games don't do.

 

[The Dude]

Speaking of a bunch of strawman crap, a proportion of those people would certainly purchase a helicopter. To demonstrate it more clearly, suppose cars were free. I can tell you right now that an absolute fuck-ton of people who currently pay a lot of money for cars would just take the free option (even $500 for an old bomb is a lot of money to some people). If purchasing was the only choice, a fuck-ton of people would have no choice but to pay. The only problem we have is we've got no real idea what proportion that is. If you're forced to pay, you make a decision on how much you're willing to pay and you bite the bullet and save up for it. Buy new or second-hand? Buy that car or the other car?

I agree that the helicopter analogy sucked ass but CAN EVERYBODY STOP WITH THE GOD DAMN CAR ANALOGIES WHEN TALKING PIRACY OR SOFTWARE IN GENERAL ALREADY, BECAUSE THEY ARE FULL OF FAIL AND MAKE NO SENSE WHATSOEVER!

Thank you.

 

[Pastel]

YOU WOULDN'T STEAL A CAR

 

[TehAzzhole]

YOU WOULDN'T STEAL A CAR

It is kinda hard to steal a car without leaving your parents' basement

 

[The Dude]

It is kinda hard to steal a car without leaving your parents' basement

Yeah, I guess you would know.

 

[TehAzzhole]

It is kinda hard to steal a car without leaving your parents' basement

Yeah, I guess you would know.

My parents don't even own a basement, so nuts to you.

Asshat

 

[MetalCraze]

where do you live then?

 

[TehAzzhole]

I live in my brother's basement now.

 

[Pastel]

Lol Fritzl

 

[LCJr.]

Wow, talk about a bias, the "blogger" has no factual information or gathered statistics. All he's done is manipulate and alter the provided statistics to argue an invalid point.

"Hey I don't like the real numbers so I will change them!"

Your numbers are absolutely bunk because they have no factual basis other than a misrepresentation of the data. The blogger doesn't even provide examples for why the numbers would be lower and doesn't provide any other statistical information to explain why we should lower them more.

So keep on believing in your bias. If it could be shown that piracy had zero affect I would believe that, but as is, there is more in favor of it doing the opposite of good.

There's no doubt that PC gaming suffers due to piracy - and to a considerably greater extent than console titles.

Even the author of that article agrees that piracy is causing a problem! Wow, omg!

The online gaming service GameShadow uses its client side software to automatically patch the games of over 1 million subscribers. As it does this, the software also (anonymously and voluntarily) records various details about those users' games, and filters them back out through a reporting tool.

Amongst other fascinating data, The GameShadow Metrics service detects the version of games installed, based on things like the executable file. Every so often the software finds an unofficial game version (i.e. an install that's been cracked, or uses a No-CD).

What that means is I can tell you the ratio of legal vs illegal Crysis installs in GameShadow's UK customer base is more like 7:3, while in the US it's closer to 5:1 - a far less bleak scenario.

http://www.gameshadow.com/metrics.php

 

[Xi]

Once again, this argument boils down to convincing a blind person that color is desirable! The pirates simply cannot tell the difference between lights off and lights on. It all looks the same to these people. It's no different than a prison inmate who doesn't see the higher potential for working to make a living, they still prefer to steal thinking it's the more lucrative option.

 

[LCJr.]

No. The argument was whether or not the numbers of legal vs. illegal copies given by Crytek's Cevat Yerli had any basis in reality. If the sampling of Gameshadow users is any indication then the numbers were ridiculously off the mark. Again keep in mind the Gameshadow numbers only show those with a modified exe so some of them could simply be legal owners with a no-cd.

 

[Xi]

No. The argument was whether or not the numbers of legal vs. illegal copies given by Crytek's Cevat Yerli had any basis in reality. If the sampling of Gameshadow users is any indication then the numbers were ridiculously off the mark. Again keep in mind the Gameshadow numbers only show those with a modified exe so some of them could simply be legal owners with a no-cd.

Very true, but sense we don't know this exact number we cannot just invoke our own data into the miture, especially data that we create on the fly because we "think" it's closer to the mark - based on our opinion of the matter.

We can however say that the number is lower because of users who prefer the NO-CD option. That's it. Since the article was siting 15 Pirates for every 1 Consumer, even if we lower this by 2/3 it's still a staggeringly high number. Also, the writer of the article even agrees that piracy is a problem, he's just trying to say that some CEOs want to believe their games are more desireable than they really are.

I'm with you guys on that one. I only attribute piracy to like a 15-30% loss in my mind, but again it's just a baseless number. Hardly the worst problem, which is obviously the lower quality of the games themselves, technology and graphics aside - which seems to be how these CEOs judge the quality of a game anyway.

It's even possible that we're reaching market ceilings for specific genre's when we see these low figures as well. Maybe sales could have been a little higher, but it's ridiculous to expect maximal sales, ever. How many gamers are there in the world? 100 Million, maybe? Now split them into genre's and remove the casual gamers who enjoy blackjack and pong, and suddenly it's a different picture.

 

[Helton]

We cannot ALLOW a piracy crises Cryses! Christ.

 

[racofer]

We cannot ALLOW a piracy crises Cryses! Christ.

Piracy, Crytek, Crysis. Fuckyng Y's are running teh pc gaem yndustry.