Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Lahey]

What is it that Tim and Len are working on? Is that RT or RTwP? It sure as shit ain't TB.

FPS

 

[Trashos]

Can we try to look into this issue from a slightly different angle? Why would it sell better?

 

[Roguey]

I always got the opinion that Feargus never wanted to do RPGs. At least not the type that he's doing now. I always got the idea he wanted Obsidian to be Bioware. Or something else. Big AAA titles, advertising budgets, all that shit.

Well yeah, Avellone confirmed this last week. The plan was to make really profitable Bioware-style cinematic RPGs, get the attention of some publisher, then sell the company and retire.

 

[Major_Blackhart]

Can we try to look into this issue from a slightly different angle? Why would it sell better?

Which one? RTwP vs. RT vs. TB?
I don't know. They've been using that spiritual successor to BG crap to generate excitement, and as a result they use RTwP. My whole thing was that BG was successful in spite of RTwP, not because of it. I never felt it added anything vs. other forms of combat.

I prefer TB and as a result I frequently feel that RTwP or RT games in that style fall flat of what they could be. It's a personal taste thing, but also to a point it's a control element thing. It's annoying to have to juggle between four or six characters with individual abilities and powers, etc. in real time or even RTwP. It makes combat hectic, not thoughtful. It was one of the charms of TB combat.

FO for example had exceedingly simple combat, and while there weren't a ton of things you could do in combat, each action was weighed effectively by allowing you to judge a situation. Underrail has quite a few options for combat, and benefits fantastically from TB. I don't need to play either game in RT to know that it wouldn't be enjoyable to do so.

 

[Major_Blackhart]

I always got the opinion that Feargus never wanted to do RPGs. At least not the type that he's doing now. I always got the idea he wanted Obsidian to be Bioware. Or something else. Big AAA titles, advertising budgets, all that shit.

Well yeah, Avellone confirmed this last week. The plan was to make really profitable Bioware-style cinematic RPGs, get the attention of some publisher, then sell the company and retire.

It's funny, but that's the exact opposite of what Troika wanted. They just wanted to make games, stick to a niche market. I was always upset about how things ended up with that great team. So many diamonds in the rough. They just didn't want to run the business side of things.

Feargus wants to run teh business side of things but doesn't necessarily strike me as someone who's incredibly good at it. He's a survivor. That's one thing. He's good at doing whatever it takes to keep the company afloat. That doesn't make you a great businessman though. My father is good friends with a guy that manages to use every trick in the book to avoid this bill or that tax, etc. as he barely keeps his head above water with his business, etc. That doesn't make him a good businessman, just street smart in that sense of doing what you need to do to get to the next day, week, month, or paycheck.

I've always felt that good businessmen don't necessarily need to rely on those tactics throughout their career the way Obsidian has. To me, Obsidian has always seemed like it was one step away from bankruptcy. Even with their recent successes, there's still a cloud hanging overhead. They never seemed to be able to capitalize on their successes properly. The fact that Avellone confirmed that these guys are simply looking for a payday and that's that simply shows that they're not focused on running the business proper, but rather giving the appearance as such.

 

[Loostreaks]

RtwP should sell better for a larger audience. Compared to DOS I/II, Obsidian ( tech) looks more than a decade behind and not enough to excite wider audience ( with ship combat done in text, as your new, "best" feature).
They would have more success ($) with design more closer to Dragon Age Origins than trying to emulate IE games. Wasn't Dungeon Siege III done on their own engine?

 

[Morality Games]

So PoE II will be a slow burn? I never really foresaw this game as an overnight hit really. They've basically worn out that 'Hey we're aping Baldur's Gate' nostalgia with the first one. Game has to succeed now on the merits of the first, which people remember more than BG.

No idea how that will play out TBH. I mean, truth be told, I've never believed for a moment that Sawyer would get his game made at Obsidian. And now that Tim Cain and Leon Boyarski are back, it's even less likely because these two are practically golden children in the community.

So here's a thing: if this thing fails to live up to internal expectations, which is AAA sales as evidenced by Upper Mgmt doing full voice work AND dumbing down the game for a broader audience (the latter of which has time and again proven to lead to shit as you neither appealing to the masses nor your fanbase and succeed instead in alienating both with stale tapwater), what happens to Sawyer? Does he leave and go somewhere else? How much freedom did he have to fuck with this game?

On the list of things Morality Games doesn't understand, I'm not sure where this full voiceover = AAA sales is coming from (which is entry level 5,000,000 sales, which none of these games has come close to).

They're just trying to stay competitive with other AA games in the 1-2 million sales category because there have to be obvious signs of aesthetic and technical advancement.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

Looking at how extremely low PoE1's achievement %s are - only 43% finished Act 1 - it probably suffers from the same issue as Legend of Grimrock: a lot of people bought it blindly due to the hype but found out that they don't like IE-style games.

You just described most games on steam. There are a lot of gamers out there buying games on the heat of the moment just because they can, even if they have no real interest or time to play said games. This is great for developers, but bad for armchair critics like us because we have no idea what is going on. Moreover, there is the sequel's curse. I will repost a comment from the other thread.

I think it is because the novelty effect wore of. Uncle Vince got it right.

As you probably noticed a number of indie and not so indie sequels have done very poorly lately, selling anywhere from 10 to 30% of the original title - XCOM2, Banner's Saga 2, Legend of Grimrock 2, Blackguards 2, etc. My explanation of this phenomenon is that unless you have a AAA blockbuster with massive appeal, you don't go for a sequel because it would never sell as much as the original because the public perspective would be "it's more of the same".

Now, let's be optimistic and assume that the breakdown goes something like that (based on the reviews and impressions):

- core supporters - 25% - love it, want more
- core haters - 10% - fucking hate it, will never buy another ITS game again
- kinda liked it - 50% - liked it but ... This "but" ranges from minor to major issues
- meh - 15% - played for a couple of hours and moved on, no strong emotions, no urge to play more

So if we make AoD 2, we get the core supporters and some % of the kinda liked it camp. We'll also get some new players, probably no more than 20%. So our best case scenario is selling 3/4 of what AoD sold, worst case - less than half. Thus moving to a brand new setting with different systems but the same core design is the safest bet even though it looks like the riskiest.
...
Back in June:

Original vs sequel:

Legend of Grimrock: 936,949 vs 246,684
Blackguards: 471,616 vs 178,528
XCOM: 3,304,215 vs 823,999
Shadowrun: 723,457 vs 613,408 vs 188,034 (arguably Hong Kong was the best iteration but few people cared at this point)
The Banner Saga: 592,139 vs 43,826

Success of the first game often fools developers into thinking that they can do even better or at least as good with a second 'bigger and better' game, but it's rarely the case. The only exceptions to the rule are games that offer building, sandbox, and well-executed killing loop activities that people never seem to be tired of. Darkest Dungeon is a fucking monster but I bet if they go for a sequel it will sell less than a third of the original.

What is hilarious is that Vault Dweller invited Feargus I-like-to-Mismanage-my-Own-Company Urquhart to give advice in the same update and he said exactly the opposite!

I’m a big believer in sequels, but I’m both a maker and player of RPGs. I think RPGs are great to sequelize due to their focus on story, characters, and growth. When I finish a RPG, I usually want to play with that character again, or play in that world again. Now, not everyone is like me, but I think there are quite a few of us. For all games, but particularly, for RPGs, we create these complex engines and design methods, and we can give players an even grander experience when we can use as much of that as possible from game to game. Of course, we can’t just make the same game again, and sequels need to be more than a big expansion pack. But, so much of our time goes into what players play (quests, areas, companions, dialogs), and when we create all of those again for a sequel with a different, or continuing, story - that’s a new game.

The challenge sequels are fighting with non-sequels is for attention. It is easier to get someone’s attention with things that feel new, so a sequel does need something new and interesting. This could be a big feature like the world map and ship combat in Pillars 2, but it could also be an incredible story; the core of which grabs your attention, and anyone else’s when they hear about it. I don’t know where the line is, but I think we all get a feeling for it. One of the things we did on Icewind Dale 2 at Black Isle Studios was to re-do the HUD. It looks and feels entirely different than all the other Infinity Engine games, and allowed us to also add in some tweaks, but it was not an entire re-write. One could argue that what we did was “skin” the UI, which isn’t really a benefit to players. I think it gave the game a fresh look, gave players more of the world to see, and created an easier way to interact with the characters and game controls at the same time. Either way IWD2 felt new and different because of it.

That's great business advice Mr. Urquhart. You really know what you are talking about, don't you?

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

The fact that Avellone confirmed that these guys are simply looking for a payday and that's that simply shows that they're not focused on running the business proper, but rather giving the appearance as such.

What he said suggested that they only need to find a new publisher to keep the studio afloat and that owners are a separate cast that comes first with payments. They are the ones that will profit with the royalties of this game, not the studio. The survival of the studio relies entirely on publishers and they always find a new sucker to take advantage of. They are the ones who pay most of the bills.

Either way, there's a no reason for all this hysteria. It will continue to sell I'm sure, as the reception has been excellent and the patches and fixes will only help.

Yes, but at what pace? Even the first Fallout sold a ton after all these years. DO:S keep selling in a frenetic pace and so did PoE. I'm not sure that this will happen with this game, but then again their business model seem to rely on publishers.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

MRY what do you think about all this?

 

[Grape_You_In_the_Mouth]

Nice catch Blakemoreland. Vince is so smart it's absurd.

 

[fantadomat]

I think your feeling that the sale are affected by the dumb down are skewed by your bias.

If it didn't, Bethesda and Bioware wouldn't have been trying so hard to do it all these years.

I would rather bet that the real reason is that the setting and storytelling are not as good.

The details of a setting don't make much difference either. As for storytelling, well that depends on what your definition of good is. A couple of a million people love Bioware storytelling.

And their best selling games are story oriented,have you forgotten the outrage of ME3? Everyone was talking about how bad the ending was and making videos of pissing over the game or destroying the disc. That was the point at which the studio begun to go downhill when it comes to revenue. Games do sell based on the quality of their first game. PoE did sell very well but disappointed everyone. Also everyone loves a good story,yet the game didn't deliver it.

 

[Morality Games]

It's worth noting this new Steamspy algorithm sees some chaotic jumps. Battletech sold 411,000 on May 12th but just flipped to 559,000 on May 13th.

In fairness, the creator said they would for awhile.

 

[Clockwork Knight]

Now where have I seen this before?

I was thinking about this cover the other day, it's kind of amazing how bad it is. The Batman logo (which alone guarantees sales) is obscured by the tenouttaten, so they need to add a second, smaller logo.

 

[Jenkem]

It will be interesting to compare Deadfire to the upcoming launches of Pathfinder: Kingmaker and Black Geyser.

 

[agris]

Urthor the notion that BattleTech cannibalized Deadfire sales strikes me as odd. Why do you think the two audiences would overlap to a significant degree? One is a RTwP story driven RPG, the other is a TB mech combat tactics game.

I don’t see the connection.

 

[Urthor]

Urthor the notion that BattleTech cannibalized Deadfire sales strikes me as odd. Why do you think the two audiences would overlap to a significant degree? One is a RTwP story driven RPG, the other is a TB mech combat tactics game.

I don’t see the connection.

Old hardcore gamers people playing niche 90s game genres from Kickstarters, relying on the appeal of classic brands?

I doubt that there is zero overlap, I wouldn't say it is a single factor in the success by any stretch, but there is absolutely some small amount of overlap.

 

[fantadomat]

Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss i just what to add that many AAA game suffering from the shit sequel sales. Last few years the market have become very jaded. This days devs get only one chance of impressing the crowd. All of those games that you quoted are pretty meh on release. Banner saga was a cool but unfinished and episodic,a thing that most backers didn't expected. I will be surprised if the third game moves anything decent in numbers.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

And their best selling games are story oriented,have you forgotten the outrage of ME3? Everyone was talking about how bad the ending was and making videos of pissing over the game or destroying the disc. That was the point at which the studio begun to go downhill when it comes to revenue. Games do sell based on the quality of their first game. PoE did sell very well but disappointed everyone. Also everyone loves a good story,yet the game didn't deliver it.

I don't think these comparisons have merit because ME games are like interactive movies with huge production values. Players that enjoy these games care about their characters. So sequels are profitable and make sense, because they are similar to pop culture movies. But nobody cares about Thaos or the watcher because they wanted to make a team of adventurers to kill things. So trying to make a sequel of PoE, and what is worse, trying to invest any resources in continuity between both games was a waste. Just because blockbusters earn a fortune with sequels and triple-A games that imitate them also profit because they sell interactive movies with high graphic fidelity, it doesn't mean that medium or smaller studios should do the same when they are trying to do something entirely different.

Besides, the supposed death of Bioware was celebrated too early. Their doom is a delusion that we tell ourselves because we hate these games and want to see them fail. I thought that everyone was hating ME:A, until I talked to my cousin who bought this aberration at full price on release. He buys a lot of games and plays them all. I tried to explain to him how bad the game was and he simply dismissed all the criticisms and said he enjoyed the game. That after all the fuck ups in the development of this game, being blasted by the game journalists, etc. The game was after all a financial success. Triple-A studios are like Jason, they can die multiple deaths and survive as if nothing had happened.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss i just what to add that many AAA game suffering from the shit sequel sales. Last few years the market have become very jaded. This days devs get only one chance of impressing the crowd. All of those games that you quoted are pretty meh on release. Banner saga was a cool but unfinished and episodic,a thing that most backers didn't expected. I will be surprised if the third game moves anything decent in numbers.

I have no idea, to be honest. The machine is so powerful that each sequel can lose and attract new players. There are a lot of potential costumers out there waiting to buy a new game. At the end of the day they don't lose money. It's curious that you mentioned the Banner Saga 2 because we discussed this before. Read this: Stoic's John Watson at NASSCOM GDC 2016: The Banner Saga 2 was a commercial disappointment. They overestimated the interest in the second game and tried to add a bunch of fancy stuff that nobody asked, just like Obsidian did. In this thread you will find posters criticising their sequel (trilogy!) model.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

Nice catch Blakemoreland. Vince is so smart it's absurd.

He is not dumb, I can tell you that. But notice that in this case he simply used common sense and steam spy. Other people that have been paying attention to sequels were all saying the same thing. Sequels for cRPGs are bad. Avoid them like the plague. But apparently the big shots on some studios can't see these basic facts because they are completely disconnected from what is happening around them. That also explains why a guy like Fargo, who is a veteran of the industry, decides to release Torment in the same week of Zelda's release. Such a rookie mistake. He is now making a sequel to Wasteland 2. Well...

 

[Major_Blackhart]

Listen, guys like Fargo still blamed the fact that Interplay went under because they didn't focus on consoles early enough and in enough numbers, not that the company was mismanaged, the industry was misunderstood, and they completely shit the bed on what made them a good company to begin with.

Obsidian? Never really that great of a company. Decent at times, and even capable of being good. But great? No, I don't think I can call any of their games as part of that category.
The fact that it has become quite easy to pay attention to market trends thanks to Steamspy and other apps, and that guys like Fargo and Feargus don't, tells you something.

 

[fantadomat]

Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss i just what to add that many AAA game suffering from the shit sequel sales. Last few years the market have become very jaded. This days devs get only one chance of impressing the crowd. All of those games that you quoted are pretty meh on release. Banner saga was a cool but unfinished and episodic,a thing that most backers didn't expected. I will be surprised if the third game moves anything decent in numbers.

I have no idea, to be honest. The machine is so powerful that each sequel can lose and attract new players. There are a lot of potential costumers out there waiting to buy a new game. At the end of the day they don't lose money. It's curious that you mentioned the Banner Saga 2 because we discussed this before. Read this: Stoic's John Watson at NASSCOM GDC 2016: The Banner Saga 2 was a commercial disappointment. They overestimated the interest in the second game and tried to add a bunch of fancy stuff that nobody asked, just like Obsidian did. In this thread you will find posters criticising their sequel (trilogy!) model.

Selling a lot less that the first game is not about overestimating the market,it is clear loss of customers. Some loss could be expected,but loosing 70%-80% is not something you could expect. They didn't sell because they made their game episodic and didn't have any marketing. I found the second game on some torrent randomly a few months after release. It is like any other episodic game,the first episode sells well and after that everyone forgets about the game.
For non episodic games is important to grab the customer imagination and interest with the first game. Both Dragon age and Mass effect managed to do this. DOS managed to deliver what they promised and its fans enjoyed it. Also Andromeda was a massive flop no matter what bunch of retarded journos are talking about. The whole studio get dismantled and bioware got kicked in the balls. If you are thing that it was a success then you are either diluted or naive.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

Listen, guys like Fargo still blamed the fact that Interplay went under because they didn't focus on consoles early enough and in enough numbers, not that the company was mismanaged, the industry was misunderstood, and they completely shit the bed on what made them a good company to begin with.

Obsidian? Never really that great of a company. Decent at times, and even capable of being good. But great? No, I don't think I can call any of their games as part of that category.
The fact that it has become quite easy to pay attention to market trends thanks to Steamspy and other apps, and that guys like Fargo and Feargus don't, tells you something.

This. If they managed to make decent games, or at least rough gems, was despite the management, not because of them. The same Fargo that ensured Fallout existence was the same Fargo that didn't protect Tim Cain's role in the second game. Hit or miss management.

 

[Blakemoreland Hybrid Boss]

I found the second game on some torrent randomly a few months after release. It is like any other episodic game,the first episode sells well and after that everyone forgets about the game. For non episodic games is important to grab the customer imagination and interest with the first game. Both Dragon age and Mass effect managed to do this. DOS managed to deliver what they promised and its fans enjoyed it.

The problem is that storyfag developers are trying to imitate big studios in making sequels and creating a franchise. That's a dumb idea because these games don't have the same production values and try to offer a gameplay that is much more passive for casual standards. Notice how Obsidian and InXile try really hard to make trailers with a cinematographic look. They are so ashamed of being isometric games that is embarrassing.