PoE Sales Analysis Thread

[imweasel]

PoE could have sold substantially more than what SteamSpy states. Or maybe you are just retarded.

Aside from the fact that that obviously wasn't the point you were making, that also has nothing to do with what I said. The game still wouldn't be a sales disaster if it sold somewhat less than the figures listed by Steamspy.

That is your butthurt talking, I never said that it sold bad because I don't think it has. And I am not trying to prove that PoE sold bad either.

I was obviously pointing out that the numbers can't be very accurate, and could either be substantially higher or lower.

 

[Athelas]

Happy to see that this game has already dropped out of the top 10 top 20 on Steam. I like Obsidian and want them to make (a lot of) money, but this game simply doesn't deserve it.

Sorry for those at Obsidian who actually did some pretty great work on PoE (mostly the art and tech guys).

 

[imweasel]

What is this, the Codex Kindergarten? Are you still trying to prove that I am allegedly attempting to prove that PoE sold bad? I just said that I don't think that PoE sold bad, and that PoE could have sold substantially more or less than what SteamSpy has stated. What more do you need?

Your butthurt and mental retardation is simply glorious.

 

[Kz3r0]

Guys, use logic, PoE was kickstarted, so these are the possible scenario:

The unlikely ones:
A DISASTER: possible only with grave mismanagement of funds, something that has not happened.

A FAILURE: the game didn't sold enough to recover the extra money invested by Obsidian, and this is not obviously the case.

The probable ones:

A DISAPPOINTMENT: the game didn't sold enough to fund a sequel and make the IP walk on its own legs, in this case Obsidian must decide if committ further resources to it or not.
My personal opinion is that this is what happened., if they rush to put out the expansions it's confirmed.

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED: the game sold enough to produce a sequel, the IP is an established franchise.

The pipe dream:
SMASHING SUCCESS: the game not only sold enough to warrant a sequel but increased Obsidian capital as well, considering how the game dropped down from the top ten of Steam sales very ulikely.

 

[Ulrox]

A DISAPPOINTMENT: the game didn't sold enough to fund a sequel and make the IP walk on its own legs, in this case Obsidian must decide if committ further resources to it or not.
My personal opinion is that this is what happened., if they rush to put out the expansions it's confirmed.

It's possible, might also explain why they suddenly want to go the kickstarter route again. If they expected a smashing success there was no reason to go kickstarter, but if it's a disappointment then they might have little choice but to go the kickstarter route.

 

[Kattze]

Well to be frank all major Kickstarter game makers went back to kickstarter for their next games. Including IneXile, and I think the Shadowrun devs also.

Only ones that have not done so yet are the Divinity Original Sin folk, and even they might go that route at some point if the rumors about their multiple games simultaneously are true.

Really, why would you not go for Kickstarter; it is free money. You are getting paid in advance to make a game, which you can then sell for additional possible profits.

 

[Kz3r0]

A DISAPPOINTMENT: the game didn't sold enough to fund a sequel and make the IP walk on its own legs, in this case Obsidian must decide if committ further resources to it or not.
My personal opinion is that this is what happened., if they rush to put out the expansions it's confirmed.

It's possible, might also explain why they suddenly want to go the kickstarter route again. If they expected a smashing success there was no reason to go kickstarter, but if it's a disappointment then they might have little choice but to go the kickstarter route.

I think that they hoped for just the IP estlabishing itself, if really is a disappointment depends on how much of a disappointment it is, a MEH, investing more money is too risky or DOH, let's give it a liitle push and maybe will take off.
Must be noted that Obsidian is a much bigger studio than inXile or Larian, for them to commit resources means to invest more money comparably than Sven or Brian.

 

[Morality Games]

The game cost $5,000,000 to make. Assuming Obsidian did something really dumb like give Paradox 50% of the post-Steam revenue, they've already made $5,000,000 after taxes.

 

[Kz3r0]

The game cost $5,000,000 to make. Assuming Obsidian did something really dumb like give Paradox 50% of the post-Steam revenue, they've already made $5,000,000 after taxes.

Are you their accountant perchance?
I don't make wild guesses, I look to the behavior of the various studios, Sven decided to expand his studio activities and projects thanks to D:OS sales, PoE has not even got near to the time of permanence of that game in Steam Top Ten sales.

 

[tuluse]

Are you their accountant perchance?
I don't make wild guesses, I look to the behavior of the various studios, Sven decided to expand his studio activities and projects thanks to D:OS sales, PoE has not even got near to the time of permanence of that game in Steam Top Ten sales.

How many months after release did he do that?

 

[Athelas]

I'm not sure why people are expecting it to outsell D:OS, a game that has much more appeal beyond niche RPG fans. I suspect it will end up selling somewhere between WL2 and D:OS.

PoE has not even got near to the time of permanence of that game in Steam Top Ten sales.

And it won't ever, but this hardly means much. You're comparing a game that was released during a literal summer drought (of game releases) and one that was released during one of the busiest periods of new releases and discounted games.

A DISAPPOINTMENT: the game didn't sold enough to fund a sequel and make the IP walk on its own legs, in this case Obsidian must decide if committ further resources to it or not.
My personal opinion is that this is what happened., if they rush to put out the expansions it's confirmed.

They are indeed rushing out to put out the expansion(s).

 

[Volrath]

The game cost $5,000,000 to make. Assuming Obsidian did something really dumb like give Paradox 50% of the post-Steam revenue, they've already made $5,000,000 after taxes.

Are you their accountant perchance?
I don't make wild guesses, I look to the behavior of the various studios, Sven decided to expand his studio activities and projects thanks to D:OS sales, PoE has not even got near to the time of permanence of that game in Steam Top Ten sales.

Yeah, after 8 months...

 

[Correct_Carlo]

I feel like D:OS's main advantage was getting to the market first. It was the first major kickstarted RPG to be released, which I think was a major part of its success. It didn't just seem to be selling to RPG fans, but also casuals who were caught up in the novelty and hype. By the time POE came along kickstarted, oldschool RPGs were old hat, so I doubt it tapped into the casual market as much.

I don't get the sense that POE is doing poorly, though. I can't imagine how they couldn't have made money off of it, unless they completely mismanaged their resources (which wouldn't be unheard of given how Double Fine fucked everything up so monumentally). If they haven't made money, though, they definitely will with the expansion. The expansion will probably be much cheaper to produce and have the added benefit of double dipping into the kickstarter fans who donated 3 years ago and thus didn't have to rebuy after release. POE was really well received by critics and fans so if they make a decent expansion I imagine it will sell much better than most expansions do.

 

[bonescraper]

Every cent they make on this game is pure profit, unless they went far over budget.

 

[Morality Games]

The game cost $5,000,000 to make. Assuming Obsidian did something really dumb like give Paradox 50% of the post-Steam revenue, they've already made $5,000,000 after taxes.

Are you their accountant perchance?
I don't make wild guesses, I look to the behavior of the various studios, Sven decided to expand his studio activities and projects thanks to D:OS sales, PoE has not even got near to the time of permanence of that game in Steam To Ten sales.

Using rough estimates.

They're are at least 350,000 owners on Steam, according to SteamSpy. Given the Kickstarter achievement (14.8% at time of writing), that suggests 52,000 of 77,000 backers activated on Steam. That's a fairly believable number, so I have no reason to doubt them. So, we're to drop that to 300,000 in sales. Also, backers like Sensuki bought like 20 keys to fence for 20 dollars a piece, so I'm going to drop 10% (30,000) because cranberries.

However, historical trends (using mostly the Witcher franchise as an example, but also other games) indicate that 20% of early sales for an RPG of this type should have occurred on all of the other digital retailers, 16% from GOG and 4% from everyone else. So we're going to say 60,000-80,000 copies have been sold outside of Steam, tacking on some additional sales because of its association with the well established Infinity Engine/Forgotten Realms metaseries on GOG.

That's brings us to about 330,000-350,000. Multiply by $45 and you get about $15,000,000.

Steam and everyone else get 30% right away. Good-bye 4.5 million.

That leaves 11.5 million. Let's assume Paradox gets half and Obsidian gets half.

5.75 million each.

Taxes on software entertainment companies in the U.S. are about 14% state and federal.

So you lose 805,000, thereabouts.

Leaving just shy of $5,000,000.

However, a few tens of thousands of those sales were royal edition and/or upgrades, which would explain revenue remaining competitive with GTA5 for a week despite such a hugely lopsided difference in sales.

So we get over 5,000,000.

 

[CyberWhale]

Or maybe, just maybe - they want to make a sequel that isn't on the scale of the original (which they have money for) but actually want to increase the scope and reach the heights of BG2 (which will need additional Kickstarter money)?

P.S. they will also burn some of the profits on the upcoming expansion.

 

[bonescraper]

Or maybe, just maybe - they want to make a sequel that isn't on the scale of the original (which they have money for) but actually want to increase the scope and reach the heights of BG2 (which will need additional Kickstarter money)?

They don't need to work on the engine again, so the sequel doesn't have to be more expensive.

 

[CyberWhale]

They didn't really work that much on the engine - they've just had to find ways to achieve the wanted look in the Unity.
If anything - the sequel would need a new and more expensive engine so it doesn't suffer from the same things the original did.
Also, the highest amount of money went to environment artists - and a bigger game would need even more of that shit.

 

[Sensuki]

There are *definitely not* 60-80K sales outside of Steam, lol.

The steamspy stats include retail, humble bundle ... everything except GOG is a steam key because Paradox. GOG is the only non-steam key, and the sales of the Hero Edition are probably around 12-14K including backers. Don't have data on the others.

 

[Athelas]

Most of the budget went to establishing pipelines for graphics and engine development. Those purdy backgrounds and that dynamic lighting don't come cheap. And obviously developing all the assets, character models, etc.

So a PoE 2 should be cheaper to develop, even if it's bigger.

reach the heights of BG2 (which will need additional Kickstarter money)?

They'll need better designers too.

 

[Sensuki]

Apparently there's only a handful of staff that can play above normal difficulty. I have never played Normal difficulty on PE but I imagine it requires no effort whatsoever. If people are struggling with that, then you might have a problem on your hands when it comes to better encounter design, especially if hardly anyone on the design team ever played the Infinity Engine games and people aren't willing to go back and play them to see what they did well. Best thing you can hope for is better flavor. SA/badgame will prevent any systemic improvements beyond tweaking what's already there.

 

[Irenaeus]

I have never played Normal difficulty on PE

That says a lot about you.

 

[Blackguard]

Every cent they make on this game is pure profit, unless they went far over budget.

Has been said many times, but Obsidian had to invest their own money in PoE, so no it isn't pure profit.

There are *definitely not* 60-80K sales outside of Steam, lol.

The steamspy stats include retail, humble bundle ... everything except GOG is a steam key because Paradox. GOG is the only non-steam key, and the sales of the Hero Edition are probably around 12-14K including backers. Don't have data on the others.

This. There is plenty of proof that GoG sales numbers are pretty insignificant compared to Steam. Even the ratio 10-1 is probably too favorable for GoG.

 

[Sensuki]

Obsidian will go partial funding route for the sequel, you can already tell that's what they're most interested in - they've mentioned it multiple times after the SR:HK KS.

 

[bonescraper]

Smart move, because they can only count for partial support from previous backers.