Cowboy Moment
Normally i think of you as a good mathematician, but in this case i do struggle with this thought. I personally thought that you have studied physics or mathematics or computer science. With physics the most probable case, because of the knowledge in manifolds.
Cowboy Moment said:
Again, the main problem with this kind of comparison is that the number of active Steam users has nearly doubled since Skyrim's release. It's quite likely that these "new Skyrim players" weren't even on Steam at the time of its release.
You know that we could apply (if that was, that simple calculation) the 'reverse steam growth' function on the 'played' function to derive a sales function? f(x)°g(x) = h(x)
There are other variables that would obscure our numbers and diminish the correctness our calculations, like the use of advertising, mods, special sales, competitors, etc.. etc. And it is to early to deduce how the sales will behave, also we have no other examples of a sales distribution function to use for our calculations. My estimations were guesses and wishful thinking, based on Interplay's cRPG general sales. But i also wanted to suggest as you did, to simply ask Swen about their sales numbers. I think Larian will be more than willing (if the numbers are good) to share their sales numbers, with us. Also if they would keep track of their sales numbers for each day and then share it with us (perhaps on their site), we could use their records for an estimation of other projects.
Metro said:
If only the funds they wasted on Dragon Commander could have been siphoned into this game... yikes!
That is not so easy. "2* the investment" does not necessary mean "2* the sales numbers", mostly it is very different. It's nearly always more complex. If you wish, we could discuss it here. But i think that Dragon Commander was not a bad decision, if it has caught the programming / scripting costs and has lowered this way a good percentage the cost for the Larian editor / engine. Then it has paid off. I don't have DC, but i think that it can be quite interesting. If played without the real time strategy thingy with some friends. Like Axis&Allies, over the internet.
If one can decide, to turn off the RTS for a game session and the entire story, and one can play it with 4-5 people, i will definitely buy it. But If you mean that Larian could have invested more time and money into D:OS to make it better, i would say then yes it would have been nice.
But if that would result in a better "Return on Investment (ROI)" is highly doubtful, because D:OS is a niche product.
Volrath said:
Would somebody be able to mod them in though? (Day/Night cycles)
Now it is a lot of work, this load would be very high.
Back to Ultima (IV to VI) for a better overview:
Ultima was designed in the first place to have a Day/Night cycle. Garriott has made special cards for each NPC, with their place in time, before he implemented it.
Today i would use scripts / templates with parameters, that are given to the agents according to the day time. Like in agent oriented programming. So that a merchant would collect his goods before he goes to sleep, and etc. But there begins on other problem: how to react to changes made by the player. How should the mercant distribute his goods again? What if the player has layed something on the place of a good? Problems over problems. It is not so easy as in just addjust the lighting. If there is a game that handles this good, you can tell me and i will look then into this. I think that Larian editor has templates, but how mighty/potent they are? I don't know.
Infinitron
The term "euro shovelware" is a very USA narcissistic thing to say. Currently europa is gaining much ground (with Belgium and EE as leading goose), and in USA was produced also a lot of shit.
It was the lack of funds in europe that has lowered the quality of games, but now with better and cheeper productions methods and with higher ingenuity in europe, the positions of europe and USA can drastically change.
Postive cases for european game development:
Crytec, CDProject, Larian, Almost Human Ltd. with 'Legend of Grimrock' , Frontier Developments with 'ELITE Dangerous', 'Chech' games and Baremattle's 'Sui Generis'.
Especially in the RPG department we in europe have strong development and aspirants with CD Project, Larian, Almost Human Ltd., Warhorse and Baremattle.