A1A wins.
***
Misjudgement
I messed up. In hindsight, I should have dealt with the Red Octopus affairs more decisively, or not at all. The boss of the Red Octopus, an experienced mobster by the name of Benjamin Tarcus, was angered by his son's misdeeds when I pointed it out to him. Young Dick Tarcus's punishment involved a rather severe beating at his father's hands, in front of all of the lieutenants. In his anger, Benjamin let slip that Dick had shamed the Red Octopus's name in my eyes. That was poor form, though I should probably have seen it coming. Regardless, he would have found out anyway. When I found out that a couple of the lieutenants closer to the son had escorted him to a meeting with Governor Camna, it was too late. As it turns out, it was businessmen related to that old snake that lured Dick into this, and I had just delivered the young scion of the Red Octopus into his arms.
Before I discovered that, however, I had already made another mistake by attempting to denounce the bribery. Many of the Ankidans who took the bribes were indirectly shamed by this approach - it ended up polarizing the voting bloc. There were those who felt I was being upright and just, and flocked to the banner of the Order. Then, there were those who felt that I was being self-righteous and judgmental; who was I to cast aspersions on their actions even before they voted? The Governor's spinmeisters had a field day; within hours, most of the media were telling the people that I cared nothing for easing the suffering of the middle-class, that I would begrudge the people handouts from a caring government, and that I cared only for the refugees, who were filthy outsiders that weren't even born here.
Of course, I said nothing of the sort - and in fact took great pains to separate the briber from the bribee when placing blame - but this did not stop the presses, eager to create a more balanced and exciting scenario instead of one where I would win on the backs of a united people. A scandal for the side that is predicted to win always sells. Thankfully, though I lost some fence-sitters, the predicted margin for our side dropped down to 5%.
Then, the Governor made his next move.
He paraded Dick Tarcus before the public, who eagerly shared his tales of how I encouraged him to corner and start the drug trade, in an attempt to split the Red Octopus and remove his father from power. I was made to look like a man who had tried to use the Red Octopus to take over the criminal underworld - well, that's not far from the truth, but he did paint me rather more negatively. Although Dick offered no real proof, he was well known as the heir to that particular group, and he had a full quarter of the gang's lieutenants behind him. A few hailed from the Red Octopus, but most of them were from the remnants of the syndicates I had dismantled, absorbed into the Red Octopus after their defeat. Allowing the Red Octopus to monopolize the aftermath of the crime war had seen them grow too big, too fast to monitor properly - they had been a small, tightly-knit group prior to this. I suppose some sort of split was always on the cards.
The polarization was complete. The citizens of Ankida were split. If the Order of Pithos is just as corrupt, better the devil they know than the devil they don't, say many of them. There are always those willing to believe rumour without evidence, and of course I've used it to my own advantage where I could. I can't complain when it's used against me. Now the election was in a dead heat... and there were those tales of the Governor's planned fraud on the day of the election itself. Many of the electoral officials are likely already under his thumb. Though I had my Order making moves to garner their support, I could not make much headway on that part. I had been counting on increasing our margin to such an extent that any subtle attempt at fraud would be futile - overt attempts I can expose easily and exploit to my gain - and I had estimated a 10% margin to be on the safe side.
The fraud attempts on the day of the election itself would revolve around the means of voting. The machines used for the voting were linked to the citizen registry. A voter would go into the booth, identify himself via thumbprint and retinal scan, and cast his vote. It is possible to spoil a vote by voting for multiple candidates - though in this case there are only two. The citizen registry was controlled by the electoral commission, and the machines manned by their officials. This gives them plenty of chances to tamper subtly should they want to. At the end of the day, the results would be tallied and announced. There would be no recounts - the electronic system is deemed failproof. In fact, the Governor himself had repealed the law allowing for recounts, so sure he was of the system's infallibility... or so he claims.
The odds will be stacked against me if I go into the election with my current support. Kawano's backers have withdrawn to a safe distance, preferring to watch rather than give me any aid. I have no doubt Mere Tarliss has something to do with this, though if she isn't actively sabotaging me I will be thankful. Iannes is doing a good job of managing the public side of his campaign, together with the Order of Pithos; he has made no mistakes in terms of improving his publicity and reputation - even the recent Red Octopus scandal has managed to leave him untouched. There is still one week to go. This will be the final stretch of my campaign - I will need to get the Order and Kawano to really kick their campaigning into gear. For my part, I should look into dealing with the shadowy side of this election...
***
I can possibly do something about the electoral fraud, if it is focused on the machines. Should I take the risk of tampering, however? I may be able to hack in, but I cannot guarantee that I won't get caught.
A. I'll take the risk. I need every advantage I can get - I make the necessary adjustments for the voting to favour me. With the predicted results too close to call, I cannot leave this to chance. Mere Tarliss is watching.
B. I hack in, but only neutralize whatever cheating the Governor has made. If I get caught, I can always give the excuse that I only wanted to eliminate cheating. I will take my chances with the voting public in a fair... well, slightly fairer competition.
C. I do not take the risk of hacking into the voting machines. I have confidence that our campaign machinery will be able to gain us victory without resorting to such underhanded methods.
***
The Red Octopus gang is now divided, but there are a few lieutenants ostensibly on Dick Tarcus's side that I have juicy information on. In my guise as an information broker I can arrange for 'someone' to blackmail them to...
A. Lure out Dick, who's currently enjoying life in the Governor's palace. I want him dead. To make the plan sweeter, he will die advancing my cause - I will set him up to take the blame for a rather horrible massacre in the refugee sector. It rids him and the Governor of their credibility, and also serves to end his Red Octopus faction before they can begin to move against mine.
B. Kidnap Dick, who I will send to his father. This time I have no doubt retribution will be exacted - the old stalwarts of the Red Octopus are already baying for the traitor's blood. I can have him recant in public; this probably won't sway many of the voters, but there will be an effect nonetheless. This should end the split before it breaks out into a gangland civil war.
C. Gather dirt on more of Dick's lieutenants. Having the Red Octopus split isn't harmful to me for now, so I should see if I can blackmail or buy the loyalties of as many of the traitor lieutenants as I can. The process will be slow and likely won't finish until the election ends. I should be planning for the long term.
D. Do nothing. Actually, I won't blackmail them at all. I need to stay as far away from gang business as possible, nothing good ever comes out of it.
***
And then, as my last resort...
A. I try to spread rumours about the cheating amongst the general public. Hopefully it will take, and allow me sufficient public support to protest any results that do not end up in my favour.
B. I attack the electoral officials. As persuasion hasn't worked, I will begin an extensive campaign of blackmailing and violent threats to cow them into seeing things my way. Unfortunately I don't have the cash to buy them outright, but I'm betting they find their lives more important to them than money.
C. The election is a farce at this stage. I don't see why I should bother finishing it when the Governor has no interest in a fair competition. I'll show him what I think of his election methods. Assassination is not off the table yet. I will have him suffer an accident...
D. I don't see why I shouldn't just start the revolution right here and now. With my gravity-manipulating suit I can probably take over the entire city by myself. My allies might be displeased, but my patience is at its limits. No more fucking around... time to have some fun.