You are deluding yourself if you think that “a significant part of their customer base” cares about real world events, culture wars and activism. I remember trying to convince a casual cousin of mine how disgusting ME:A was, to no avail. 90% of gamers, and this includes the ones who played VtM:B, are retarded and apolitical. If this game end up with clans, disciplines, half-decent graphics and is relatively free of bugs, they will eat it up. They don’t give a fuck about the hamfisted agenda on the story or the dialogues, because they are borderline illiterates.
Paradox is not an AAA developer. I'm specifically talking about their strategy games. CK2 is by far their biggest in terms of the awareness there is of its existence and its subreddit is basically nothing but jokes and memes about this kind of shit. When I say "significant" I don't mean half, more like 5-10%, but it's the 5-10% who talk a lot about their games and are "core gamers" so to speak, the people who drive communities. I'd be honestly shocked if they weren't aware of this, and we've had multiple blow-ups where they sideways acknowledged it.
Even taking into account that, they'll be shit scared of headlines like "VB:2, the game that makes fun of mental disease" or the like. Remember all the crazy racism acccusations against Kingdom Come Deliverance? The dev was a truly independent indie so he could still ignore it all because he was in total control of the project, but any studio that is forced to listen to investors may not enjoy such freedom. Also, a game taking place in a contemporary setting is far more delicate and prone to cause alarm in mainstream media, and unlike GTA I doubt they can actually profit from the bad reputation.
The game will try very hard not to offend anyone, I suspect. I hope I am wrong, but despite my initial optimism the preorder thing makes me suspicious, and the "this is 2019, not 2004" statements don't make it look any better.