Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous has sold a million copies - A stellar or abysmal performance?

[Grampy_Bone]

Devil's advocate time.

The advantage that games like The Forest have is that the story doesn't get in the way of the gameplay. In fact, you could argue that open world sandbox games provide more actual role playing than click-the-dialogue-box ""RPGs"". If Kangmaker just dumped you into the world and let you explore naturally ala Caves of Lore, maybe it's sequel would have sold more. Instead you must play through the developer's "awesome story".

 

[Bester]

Show me a dozens of hours long non-action RPG with a decent completion rate.

You just did:

Disco Elysium, the highest achievement is 33% https://steamcommunity.com/stats/632470/achievements

30%+ = good game

Dungeons of Nabbledegook https://steamcommunity.com/stats/970830/achievements 22.8%
Soylasta https://steamcommunity.com/stats/1096530/achievements 21.6%
King Arthur Knight's Tale https://steamcommunity.com/stats/1157390/achievements 14.7%

Shit games.

 

[Tyranicon]

Earlier today I stumbled upon two similar news articles that left me quite baffled.

The first spoke about a 'stellar' results of P:WOTR sales:

After rolling onto screens across PC and console in 2021, Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous has shifted over 1 Million copies worldwide. Now available across PC, Xbox One, PlayStation 4 and Nintendo Switch (cloud version), the success of this incredible tale is no real surprise. After a hyped Kickstarter campaign that raised $ 2,054,339, the game garnered popular praise and a stunning 9.5 score here at Gamespace.

The game was released in a buggy, problematic state, yet the overall ratings and player feedback was overwhelmingly positive. Not to mention WOTR was financed on Kickstarter - players actively helped to fund the game.
Normaly I'd simply see these numbers and merely be surprised that a game so popular managed to acomplish only a pitiful one million of sales.

However, soon after I saw a far more surprising news:




Sons Of The Forest is another game from the creators of The Forest - a survival open-world with optional co-op. It managed to sell two million copies within just 24 hours. A result that is obviously amazing, but the difference in what is considered to 'amazing' when talking about one of the biggest western RPG releases of the last few years and an Early-Access survival games is saddening. I've always known RPGs are somewhat niche these days, but the difference between these two numbers is like between Heaven and Earth.

As a bonus, I checked Underrail sales: 198k sales since the game was released 8 years ago.


Am I being weird by being surprised by these numbers? Not having a mainstream appeal is one thing, being utterly out-classed is another. I'm not mad at Sons Of The Forest; the developers have obviously put a lot of work into it. But the difference between the complexity and sophistication between these two games is extreme. Now I feel like RPG genre is barely scraping by.

People probably said it before, but cRPGs are hyper niche and should not expect to be comparable in sales to hyper popular survival crafting games.

Sons of the Forest is 1# best selling on steam right now and will continue to be in top 10 for a very long time. Pathfinder can't compete with that.

 

[lycanwarrior]

One is following trends: open world survival, with online co-op.

The other one is a fairly niche computer rpg.

As much as I love the Pathfinder games, even I have to admit while playing them that these are pretty hardcore games that aren't going to appeal to your average normie.

And that's OK to make games that target specific audiences.

It's also funny to see so many "gamers" complain about all the "open-world" AAA games becoming stale, and yet Elden Ring and Hogwarts Legacy are massive sellers. AAA companies keep making these games because they SELL.

 

[lycanwarrior]

It didn't sell well on release probably because 'pirate setting'

It didn't sell well, because only like 10% of poe1 owners finished poe1. That's how many people wanted more of that turd.

The pirate setting has nothing to do with it. You can make an RPG out of any setting. It makes zero difference.

Pirate settings for CRPGS are FAR LESS common. Why do you think so many CRPGs are based off of fantasy settings???

 

[Roguey]

Show me a dozens of hours long non-action RPG with a decent completion rate.

You just did:

Disco Elysium, the highest achievement is 33% https://steamcommunity.com/stats/632470/achievements

30%+ = good game

Dungeons of Nabbledegook https://steamcommunity.com/stats/970830/achievements 22.8%
Soylasta https://steamcommunity.com/stats/1096530/achievements 21.6%
King Arthur Knight's Tale https://steamcommunity.com/stats/1157390/achievements 14.7%

Shit games.

That wasn't a completion score, which is admittedly unknown.

More examples.

Blackguards https://steamcommunity.com/stats/249650/achievements 8.4%
Troubleshooter https://steamcommunity.com/stats/470310/achievements 11.3%
Black Geyser https://steamcommunity.com/stats/1374930/achievements 6.1%

 

[Bester]

It didn't sell well on release probably because 'pirate setting'

It didn't sell well, because only like 10% of poe1 owners finished poe1. That's how many people wanted more of that turd.

The pirate setting has nothing to do with it. You can make an RPG out of any setting. It makes zero difference.

Pirate settings for CRPGS are FAR LESS common. Why do you think so many CRPGs are based off of fantasy settings???

Maybe you're unfamiliar with pillars, but it's a fantasy setting. With pirates.

 

[Bester]

That wasn't a completion score, which is admittedly unknown.

More examples.

Blackguards https://steamcommunity.com/stats/249650/achievements 8.4%
Troubleshooter https://steamcommunity.com/stats/470310/achievements 11.3%
Black Geyser https://steamcommunity.com/stats/1374930/achievements 6.1%

Thanks, but I already knew they were shit games, you didn't have to post the obvious.

 

[Roguey]

Thanks, but I already knew they were shit games, you didn't have to post the obvious.

Sure is curious how all these companies are releasing allegedly-terrible games hardly anyone's completing and yet they continue to remain in business. The obvious conclusion to come to is that completion doesn't matter and yet you insist it does.

 

[Harthwain]

Why do you think so many CRPGs are based off of fantasy settings???

The easiest answer would be: because the most known tabletop RPG is a fantasy one (DnD)?

Here you have data for the most prominent tabletop RPGs of 2021:

https://www.dramadice.com/blog/the-most-played-tabletop-rpgs-in-2021/

Spoiler

Spoiler

 

[lycanwarrior]

What makes you think the market for pseudo-iso party-based RPGs has significantly increased? The number of people who play games has increased, yes, but they're dimwits and midwits who are into Skryim and co-op.

I remember people saying similar things when Devolver Digital tweeted about the increased sales of Return to Monkey Island versus its predecessors, saying that it is misleading due to the growth of the video game market. I would be absolutely SHOCKED if the number of fans for the very niche point-and-click adventure game genre grew at all in either absolute numbers or percentage-wise.

 

[Non-Edgy Gamer]

The rule of thumb is to double US sales to get the international total.

What rule of thumb? lol.

A game sells what it sells. If you're going to use a "rule of thumb", you might as well estimate in other ways, as I did when I divided up the 4.5 million sales of the series Bioware claimed in Dec 2002.

The fact is, we have no real evidence of how much it sold the first year. But judging by the fact that BG sold roughly 1 million copies and that two years after BG2's release we know for a fact it sold at least 1.5 million, I'm guessing it's at or near 1 million the first year for BG2.

Especially since sales slowed with time, according to sales charts at the time referenced on the wiki. It's unreasonable to expect a constant rate of sales of 750k the first year and then 750k the second. Ergo, the first year likely ended with close to or over 1 million sales, and the second slowed until it hit the 1.5 million mark.

But again, this is all guesses, and neither of us know the truth.

What makes you think the market for pseudo-iso party-based RPGs has significantly increased?

Ease of purchases.
More people who own PCs and consoles.
More population in general.
Wider acceptance of gaming and RPGs even among adults.
The fact that it's also on consoles.

Just a console release alone would have been a game changer, when you consider that BG2 didn't even release on MacOS until a full year after its PC release.

And since you've made the category "pseudo-iso party-based RPGs", you need only look at BG3 sales numbers for proof. You could also look at DOS2 sales numbers, which sold over 700k copies a month after release.

 

[lycanwarrior]

Why do you think so many CRPGs are based off of fantasy settings???

The easiest answer would be: because the most known tabletop RPG is a fantasy one (DnD)?

Here you have data for the most prominent tabletop RPGs of 2021:

https://www.dramadice.com/blog/the-most-played-tabletop-rpgs-in-2021/

Spoiler

Spoiler

Sure but CRPGs are very different from TTRPGs despite being initially based from them.

I mean even a lot of video games in general are fantasy-based settings compared to pirates.

 

[lycanwarrior]

The rule of thumb is to double US sales to get the international total.

What rule of thumb? lol.

A game sells what it sells. If you're going to use a "rule of thumb", you might as well estimate in other ways, as I did when I divided up the 4.5 million sales of the series Bioware claimed in Dec 2002.

The fact is, we have no real evidence of how much it sold the first year. But judging by the fact that BG sold roughly 1 million copies and that two years after BG2's release we know for a fact it sold at least 1.5 million, I'm guessing it's at or near 1 million the first year for BG2.

Especially since sales slowed with time, according to sales charts at the time referenced on the wiki. It's unreasonable to expect a constant rate of sales of 750k the first year and then 750k the second. Ergo, the first year likely ended with close to or over 1 million sales, and the second slowed until it hit the 1.5 million mark.

But again, this is all guesses, and neither of us know the truth.

What makes you think the market for pseudo-iso party-based RPGs has significantly increased?

Easy of purchases, more people who own PCs.
More population in general.
Wider acceptance of gaming even among adults.
The fact that it's also on consoles.

Just a console release alone would have been a game changer, when you consider that BG2 didn't even release on MacOS until a full year after its PC release.

And since you've made the category "pseudo-iso party-based RPGs", you need only look at BG3 sales numbers for proof. You could also look at DOS2 sales numbers, which sold over 700k copies a month after release.

Yeah, but most of these new "gamers" only buy FIFA, COD and other mainstream stuff.

Or very "casual" stuff like Candy Crush, the Sims, etc.

 

[Non-Edgy Gamer]

Psychic posters here mindreading millions of gamers. How many copies did BG3 sell again? Oh right, we can't count that.

If I bring up that BG3 sold a million copies its first week, you bleat that it's unfair due to all the voice acting the game has.

And I assume the same is true of Dragon Age's sales numbers, which totaled over a million sales within a few months.

If I bring up that DOS2 sold 700k in the first month, it must be Larian's reputation.

If I say that Baldur's Gate sold a million copies it's first year, well, that's just goalpoast shifting.

Population may increase, platform owners my increase, sales in the genre may increase, even the original Baldur's Gate's sales numbers may beat Wrath of the Tranny even though it was only on PC for the first year. But none of that matters, does it?

 

[Bester]

Thanks, but I already knew they were shit games, you didn't have to post the obvious.

Sure is curious how all these companies are releasing allegedly-terrible games hardly anyone's completing and yet they continue to remain in business. The obvious conclusion to come to is that completion doesn't matter and yet you insist it does.

I'll give you an example, it's not perfect, but it illustrates my point: both the republican and democrat parties are terrible, yet they're both in business. Because there's nothing else. Shit games are the only games, the same way.

Completion rate matters for sequels that come out quickly. Because people still remember that poe1 was shit = they don't buy.

You make a non-sequel? Great, it'll sell, because of new hope and hype.
And if it's a sequel that comes out 6+ or preferably 10+ years later, people forget why the last one sucked and buy too. Companies like to call it fatigue, but they probably know the truth. PoE3 will exist, no matter what a lukewarm shit poe2 was.

You're such a naive baby, you have to be spoon fed these simple facts of life.

 

[Harthwain]

Sure but CRPGs are very different from TTRPGs despite being initially based from them.

I mean even a lot of video games in general are fantasy-based settings compared to pirates.

TTRPGs naturally bleed into cRPGs. Some of it turns into what I would call a tradition of sorts and that's what we're seeing here.

As for video games in general: how many games are historical medieval or low fantasy medieval versus high fantasy medieval (or Tolkien-derivative equivalent)?

The reason I disagree with Jarmaro is because I am of the opinion that it is not so easy to "just copy DnD and you're set". As Cross said earlier in this thread, Morrowind was successful not because it was a fantasy setting, but because it was unique setting by comparison to "standard" fantasy so it managed to carve out its own niche.

Yes, you may attract some players by offering them a medieval-themed fantasy with sorta-Orcs, sorta-Elves and sorta-Dwarves, but you will need something extra than that to keep them and there will be much more competition in this field, because everybody else and their mother will have the same idea. It's like companies who think that China's giant mobile market means easy money. Breaking into that market is exactly the biggest issue. The same thing goes for the setting.

 

[Roguey]

And since you've made the category "pseudo-iso party-based RPGs", you need only look at BG3 sales numbers for proof. You could also look at DOS2 sales numbers, which sold over 700k copies a month after release.

Have you noticed that absolutely no other pseudo-iso party-based RPG released in the last ten years does Larian numbers? Good reason for that.

I'll give you an example, it's not perfect, but it illustrates my point: both the republican and democrat parties are terrible, yet they're both in business. Because there's nothing else.

There are other parties in the United States. Most of the voters aren't interested. The Democratic and Republican platforms are the compromise positions most people can settle on.

Completion rate matters for sequels that come out quickly. Because people still remember that poe1 was shit = they don't buy.

You make a non-sequel? Great, it'll sell, because of new hope and hype.
And if it's a sequel that comes out 6+ or preferably 10+ years later, people forget why the last one sucked and buy too. Companies like to call it fatigue, but they probably know the truth. PoE3 will exist, no matter what a lukewarm shit poe2 was.

D:OS 2 and BG3 and even Deadfire are counter-examples of this. Deadfire proved to be a success over time. Steamdb even estimates that Tyranny sales are close to a million now, that was another slow-and-steady-wins-the-race.

 

[StrongBelwas]

Psychic posters here mindreading millions of gamers.

I mean you can look at the top sellers on Steam right now and its mostly multiplatform action games, jRPGs, a multiplat sports game, Kerbal, and 1 RTS.

 

[ropetight]

There were lots of talk about "below expectations" sales, There is a strong doubt Pillars 2 sold over half a million.
I.e.
https://www.gamewatcher.com/news/pillars-of-eternity-2-sales

Nigga the link you posted is sales data from 2018.

If Roguey's data are correct, it went over the million in most optimistic estimate, after what, couple of years?

399.3 k .. 958.3 k on reviews
~1.14 M by PlayTracker
~643.5 k by VG Insights
~935.0 k by SteamSpy

Josh did say that Deadfire had 'long legs'.

It is great that people recognized it after while on discounts with all DLCs included, but reduced price elongated the time to ROI even more.
PoE series, that was supposed to be triumph of crowdfunding incline. instead generated lots of friction in Obsidian, and Avellone was biggest victim in the end.
PoE2 was just finishing chapter of this with its subpar sales.
https://rpgcodex.net/forums/threads...erarchies-and-more.121588/page-8#post-5590121

TL;DR million of copies in year one is fantastic result for RPG twenty years in past and today.

 

[Bester]

Deadfire proved to be a success over time. Steamdb even estimates that Tyranny sales are close to a million now, that was another slow-and-steady-wins-the-race.

There's a sucker born every minute.
And a Russian phrase: "In the absence of fish, even a crab is a fish".

New suckers get born. They want a good RPG - can't find a good RPG, they buy PoE2.

Those tail sales would've been there either way. The fact that it was a flop on release is a result of poe1 being shit. Demonstrably so.

 

[luj1]

Josh did say that Deadfire had 'long legs'. It didn't sell well on release probably because 'pirate setting'

Or maybe the first game was just mediocre (shit) and none wanted to play the sequel

Spoiler

 

[Cryomancer]

I believe that the market size for tactical RPG's is about 4 million players. PoE + PF:KM + DOS2 sales assuming no "overlap" in playerbases. Now, action rpgs, only Elden Ring which is extremely heavy sold 20 million copies...

 

[mikaelis]

Just for comparison see how Pillars 2 did.

Deadfire eventually made a profit.

399.3 k .. 958.3 k on reviews
~1.14 M by PlayTracker
~643.5 k by VG Insights
~935.0 k by SteamSpy

Close enough to a million.

Josh did say that Deadfire had 'long legs'. It didn't sell well on release probably because 'pirate setting' and probably because their marketing strategy seems to mostly involve just using Critical Role.

In any case 1 million copies sold on the release months seem to be the golden ticket for these projects. I mean, Owlcat is even considering a third season of DLC if season 2 does well enough. How large are these dev teams even?

My take is that Pillars 2 tanked because of two things:

1) Over-saturation of these kind of games started with Wasteland 2.
2) Ship battles mini game. It almost put me off of the sequel. I prevailed and actually found it ok. But I can imagine numbers that were scared off and didn't buy it at the end.

 

[Jarmaro]

I believe that the market size for tactical RPG's is about 4 million players.

Among what populace? Americans? People who speak english? You could go as far as to say there are billions people who play video games. If you want to count only countries worthy of at least getting the game localized, then it's still hundreds of millions of people.
Btw, I can't wait for Africans to catch-up in few decades and start making their own games, hoping for something original out of them.