Character stats and capability is all it matters in a life or death situation or in military. If you needed to survive a dark alley full of bandits would you pick Tyson on drugs that might bite your ear off on the other side or your buddy that didn't do any fighting in his life?!
1. You don't KNOW people's "real" stats. As said, I'm arguing from a roleplaying perspective. Your character doesn't know who is stronger (you only know these people since a few hours at best), just their attitude.
2. Your comparison makes no sense at all. You are not choosing between a professional and your buddy, but between two professionals, one of which is clearly a traitor and the other might be a bit weaker (maybe?) but probably not a traitor. Especially from a "real life" perspective, you would never, ever choose the traitor as that would be a huge gamble.
All you have shown is that while you are asking us to roleplay you are actually acting like you knew it is a game where you will win no matter what you choose... basically you are acting like a average american retard (read liberal) who things RL is flowers and parties.
Why do people who run out of arguments always devolve into some strangely lame attempt at politics bashing?
Grow up, man.