Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Flou]

(I don’t think there was any drama in this because the sales target was understood going in, and I've spoken to him since re: other projects. Also, I don't know how much Versus Evil's and Fig's marketing pushes really helped, so he may have been hobbled from the outset.)

I'm a little biased on VE and Fig b/c I don't think VE did much do get Banner Saga 2's awareness up, for example, and even companies working with Fig have criticized how much the platform helps with awareness (esp. vs. Kickstarter awareness).

How much promotion did Kickstarter do? FIG was really quiet to be honest. Versus Evil is very small publisher that apparently has very limited resources to use. Both Banner Saga 2 (maybe even 3) and Deadfire suffered from being published by VE. Their marketing pushes have been more after the actual release than before it.

With Paradox you get your game into retail stores across Europe. Physical copies are still viable in some European countries, and when you miss out on that you are missing out on customers.
When your game is available online only, it's way easier to have people just waiting for the price to drop. Instead of people picking up the physical copy because they saw it at a store and will actually get to add a box to their shelf of games.

With Paradox you also have Paradox's own fans that are enthusiastic about their games. Does Versus Evil have any fans? I seriously fucking doubt they do.

I don't know whether FIG was the thing that made Paradox back out on publishing Deadfire or the strained relationship when it comes to publishing Pillars and Tyranny, or was it just greed from Feargus and the other owners, but choosing Versus Evil as the publisher was a mistake. They brought very little into the table, while taking a cut for themselves.

 

[AwesomeButton]

Let's not forget, however, who has the major responsibility for moving away from Paradox after PoE, and who has the major responsibility for putting Deadfire on Fig and not on KS...

 

[2house2fly]

I have no idea what VE has even done. Maybe kicked in some money for full VO? Handled the physical rewards, which some people on the Obs forums threatened legal action over?

 

[FreeKaner]

Let's not forget, however, who has the major responsibility for moving away from Paradox after PoE, and who has the major responsibility for putting Deadfire on Fig and not on KS...

(((Feargus)))

 

[santino27]

I have no idea what VE has even done. Maybe kicked in some money for full VO? Handled the physical rewards, which some people on the Obs forums threatened legal action over?

I assumed they were in some way responsible for the critical role stuff that didn't seem to dramatically impact sales.

 

[BEvers]

I was under the impression that Obsidian chose a tiny publisher specifically because they wanted to do most of the marketing in-house. Hence the newly hired Director of Marketing.

 

[fantadomat]

Let's not forget, however, who has the major responsibility for moving away from Paradox after PoE, and who has the major responsibility for putting Deadfire on Fig and not on KS...

To be honest,Paradox are really shit at publishing/marketing. I was one of the people that wanted for Obsidian to move away from Paradox. I didn't expect them to do exactly the same shit,doing twitch streams and youtube videos.

 

[BEvers]

oh dear god

Chris Avellone

The first dividend has been announced. Here's the details:

Fig said

Dear Investors,

We are excited to announce that the first round of dividends for holders of Fig Game Shares - Pillars of Eternity II will be paid out this month! This covers revenue received through calendar Q3 2018. The next set of dividends are scheduled to be issued in May of 2019.

November 2018 dividends per share: $192.67

https://forums.obsidian.net/topic/103783-how-have-the-investors-in-the-1000-items-done/page-3

One share was $1,000.

 

[Haba]

Don't they give more detailed breakdown? Or is that the degree of transparency one gets from FIG?

 

[fantadomat]

oh dear god

Chris Avellone

The first dividend has been announced. Here's the details:

Fig said

Dear Investors,

We are excited to announce that the first round of dividends for holders of Fig Game Shares - Pillars of Eternity II will be paid out this month! This covers revenue received through calendar Q3 2018. The next set of dividends are scheduled to be issued in May of 2019.

November 2018 dividends per share: $192.67

https://forums.obsidian.net/topic/103783-how-have-the-investors-in-the-1000-items-done/page-3

One share was $1,000.

So they will get around 40% of their investment.....this is a colossal fail. The game must have flopped really hard. Weren't they supposed to get 50% of the income until their shares were being covered? If this is true,it will mean that they are getting 400 bucks for every 1000 invested. The next 6th month cycle they will get even less.

 

[Mustawd]

oh dear god

Chris Avellone

The first dividend has been announced. Here's the details:

Fig said

Dear Investors,

We are excited to announce that the first round of dividends for holders of Fig Game Shares - Pillars of Eternity II will be paid out this month! This covers revenue received through calendar Q3 2018. The next set of dividends are scheduled to be issued in May of 2019.

November 2018 dividends per share: $192.67

https://forums.obsidian.net/topic/103783-how-have-the-investors-in-the-1000-items-done/page-3

One share was $1,000.

So they will get around 40% of their investment.....this is a colossal fail. The game must have flopped really hard. Weren't they supposed to get 50% of the income until their shares were being covered? If this is true,it will mean that they are getting 400 bucks for every 1000 invested. The next 6th month cycle they will get even less.

Relax. It’s just one round of dividend offerings. If the game continues to make money they will continue to receive dividends till they reach the cap.

Also, where are you getting 40% from?

 

[Haba]

Does this include the DLC sales?

 

[BEvers]

Does this include the DLC sales?

No:

The Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement relates to Pillars of Eternity II only and does not relate to the Pillars of Eternity games previously developed by DRIL, or any other derivative works stemming from Pillars of Eternity II, including downloadable content (“DLCs”), prequels, sequels or spin-offs.

 

[fantadomat]

oh dear god

Chris Avellone

The first dividend has been announced. Here's the details:

Fig said

Dear Investors,

We are excited to announce that the first round of dividends for holders of Fig Game Shares - Pillars of Eternity II will be paid out this month! This covers revenue received through calendar Q3 2018. The next set of dividends are scheduled to be issued in May of 2019.

November 2018 dividends per share: $192.67

https://forums.obsidian.net/topic/103783-how-have-the-investors-in-the-1000-items-done/page-3

One share was $1,000.

So they will get around 40% of their investment.....this is a colossal fail. The game must have flopped really hard. Weren't they supposed to get 50% of the income until their shares were being covered? If this is true,it will mean that they are getting 400 bucks for every 1000 invested. The next 6th month cycle they will get even less.

Relax. It’s just one round of dividend offerings. If the game continues to make money they will continue to receive dividends till they reach the cap.

Also, where are you getting 40% from?

I am relaxed mate,it is not like i haven't invested money in my life and don't know what it is. I was surprised because of the terms i have read here and there. From what i got they get 50% from the money that came up from sold copies. I assume that this(192.67) is representatively of the money that came from sold copies. Thus i assume that next dividend cycle will be a lot smaller than this one,because of lower amount of sold copies. I doubt that they will be getting 200 bucks for 2.5/5 years (depending on the cycle agreement). They must be getting a percent of the income for the time (6month),not a fixed sum. I am just assuming and predicting in the end,would be very interested to see their agreement tho. This is incredibly small return on investment for a Game. Most investors expect to make at least 50% profit on the first two dividend cycles. Unless a fixed sum,but you must be really bad at economics to take such a deal(for gmaes).

 

[fantadomat]

Does this include the DLC sales?

No:

The Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement relates to Pillars of Eternity II only and does not relate to the Pillars of Eternity games previously developed by DRIL, or any other derivative works stemming from Pillars of Eternity II, including downloadable content (“DLCs”), prequels, sequels or spin-offs.

LoL,they got fucked,savagely!

 

[BEvers]

From what i got they get 50% from the money that came up from sold copies.

Hah! They wish:

Fig’s revenue share will initially be equal to the quotient of the Fig Funds divided by $14,000,000, until the aggregate amount received by Fig reaches an amount equal to 1.13 times the Fig Funds, but will decrease to (a) the quotient of the Fig Funds divided by $28,000,000 thereafter and (b) 0% after Fig receives less than $1,000 under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement for three consecutive months, subject to reinstatement at the prior rate if Fig thereafter receives $1,000 or more under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement for three consecutive months

Fig funds were $2.15 mil, so the investors should be getting 15.37% of revenue multiplied by 0.85 (Fig takes 15% for itself). But it could be much less, because the initial "investment" was only a reservation for a later funding opportunity, and Fig never released how many people actually went through on their investment. Could be only half those funds, which means that Fig would only be getting 7.69%.

Relax. It’s just one round of dividend offerings. If the game continues to make money they will continue to receive dividends till they reach the cap.

The game has already been 34% off (before the end of Q3), and they've only made back 19.2% of their investment. Barron will be president before they break even on this one.

 

[BEvers]

The game will get another bump when it goes to consoles, and the GOTY edition is released.

Small comfort for the investors, who won't receive money from console sales.

I wonder if the "shared revenue from base game, no revenue from DLC" scheme means that investors will only be sharing in half the revenue from the GOTY edition. The offering circuluar doesn't seem to cover that eventuality at all.

 

[Mustawd]

I guess we should break this down then.

Per the fig website: link

Fig Funds = Money raised from investment = 2,250 shares * 1,000 = $2.3M.

Link to shares are in their last semi annual report: here

Revenue share is the Fig Funds divided by $14 million, until 1.13x the Fig Funds is returned;

Let’s asune they haven’t made 1.13x of $2.3M. Which means Fig gets 16.1% of revenue until 1.13x of $2.3M is made.

Ok so we know each share got $193, which is 16.1% of $1,195 per share.

Which I guess means that total receipts for the period were $1,195 * 2,250 = 2,688,750.

So roughly $2.7M.

Am I doing the math right? I’m on the toilet and rushing to type cuz my phone is at 4%.

 

[Fairfax]

Fig funds were $2.15 mil, so the investors should be getting 15.37% of revenue multiplied by 0.85 (Fig takes 15% for itself).

The Fig Funds were $2.250 million. They haven't disclosed the divident rate yet, but it's supposed to be at least 85% of Fig's revenue share. The other 15% are at the board's discretion.

Assuming they sold all 2250 shares, $192.67 per share would put PoE2's revenue (after Valve's cut) at around $3,173,615, or roughly 90,674 copies at $50.

 

[fantadomat]

Fig funds were $2.15 mil, so the investors should be getting 15.37% of revenue.

This is very informative. Lets do some basic math.
2,150,000 is around 2150 shares, each one having lets say 200buck for simplicity. That is around 430,000 return for the fig campaign,if this is around 10%-20% from the money made from selling the copies. So their income from the game would be roughly around 2,150,000 to 4,300,000. Having in mind that they sold around 200,000 copies i would say that it is fairly accurate or am i missing something?

 

[nikolokolus]

Fig funds were $2.15 mil, so the investors should be getting 15.37% of revenue multiplied by 0.85 (Fig takes 15% for itself).

The Fig Funds were $2.250 million. They haven't disclosed the divident rate yet, but it's supposed to be at least 85% of Fig's revenue share. The other 15% are at the board's discretion.

Assuming they sold all 2250 shares, $192.67 per share would put PoE2's revenue (after Valve's cut) at around $3,173,615, or roughly 90,674 copies at $50.

90k copies? Jesus fuck, that's bad.

 

[Mustawd]

it's supposed to be at least 85% of Fig's revenue share. The other 15% are at the board's discretio

Ahh yes good point. I forgot to take that into account.

 

[fantadomat]

Am I doing the math right?

Fucking bastard,you were first .

Cheers!

 

[BEvers]

Before people start getting nosebleeds from too much math, here's Fig's sample calculation.

 

[Fairfax]

Fig funds were $2.15 mil, so the investors should be getting 15.37% of revenue multiplied by 0.85 (Fig takes 15% for itself).

The Fig Funds were $2.250 million. They haven't disclosed the divident rate yet, but it's supposed to be at least 85% of Fig's revenue share. The other 15% are at the board's discretion.

Assuming they sold all 2250 shares, $192.67 per share would put PoE2's revenue (after Valve's cut) at around $3,173,615, or roughly 90,674 copies at $50.

90k copies? Jesus fuck, that's bad.

The game's already had a -34% discount, so it's more than that. But yes, still atrocious.