Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Mustawd]

I think you set the $2.542 mil milestone at total revenue, whereas it should be set at Fig revenue (i.e. about seven times higher):

Right. I’ll redo it.

 

[aweigh]

guys, just wait until the console version drops and watch the millions roll in!

 

[AwesomeButton]

The leaked Steam data didn't have sales data, it only counted the number of players. That includes the 34k backers, extra/free copies, people who refunded the game, and people who played through library sharing. The estimates based on Fig's revenue don't include these groups for obvious reasons.

Thanks for confirming what I said.

1. Number of owners is what I care about.
2. Extra/free copies are a negligible amount. Come on, let's not clutch at straws like that just to prove how little it sold
3. People who played through library sharing - same as 2.
4. Refunds? Be generous please - how many people do you estimate are refunding the game in July and August? 20%? 25% of buyers? This isn't serious.

Your post from July 7th. Mind that this number reflects data that was already old when the article was published.

Numbers from the Steam API achievement stats:

Pillars of Eternity II: Deadfire 203,867

Meanwhile, Steamspy:

An interesting new addition to Steamspy, a property called "Players (experimental)" shows 196 400 players for Deadfire. At the same time, the "Owners" is at 125 000. I've seen "Owners" at 145 000, so that's obviously an extrapolation from some sample size.

And one day before the leak, July 6:

Players (experimental) is now showing over 200k players.

In other words, Steamspy's polling confirms the arstechnica numbers.

Sales somewhere between 200k-300k is still pretty bad to have since May, but waving around numbers below 200k is just ridiculous, that is, if you actually want to be objective and know how much copies the game sold. Reminding you that you still need to consider GOG's sales - you should still add 1/4 - 1/3 of the Steam sales even if you are being pessimistic.

 

[Flou]

Any idea when the cut-off point for paying dividend was? I mean at what point the sales after that certain day will be paid in the next round of dividend payments?

 

[Kyl Von Kull]

Sales somewhere between 200k-300k is still pretty bad to have since May, but waving around numbers below 200k is just ridiculous, that is, if you actually want to be objective and know how much copies the game sold. Reminding you that you still need to consider GOG's sales - you should still add 1/4 - 1/3 of the Steam sales even if you are being pessimistic.

We really need geographic numbers, but 300,000 is not credible unless they’re defrauding their Fig investors and I don’t think they’re that dumb. The average selling price would need to be $15 for them to have sold 300,000 copies and only grossed roughly $4.5 million. If the backers aren’t included, that’s 33,000 more. Say 50k given that some backers got multiple copies.

To sell 250k units then, we’re talking an average price of $18. 200k is $22.50. Maybe Deadfire was hugely popular in poor counties with super cheap regional pricing and not very popular in the anglosphere or Europe, but that seems like a stretch. On the other hand, plenty of people paid extra for the deluxe and obsidian editions—do backers see any of that money? If so that suggests even fewer units sold.

150,000 sold requires an average price of $30, which is within the realm of possibility.

At the end of the day, I trust the financials more than the steam leak—accurate revenue data is always more reliable than a channel check. There are real legal consequences for screwing over your investors. Either way, though, $4.5 million in gross sales for the first two quarters is a debacle.

Does anyone remember how Tyranny sold? Wondering if Deadfire may have done worse.

 

[AwesomeButton]

We really need geographic numbers, but 300,000 is not credible unless they’re defrauding their Fig investors and I don’t think they’re that dumb. The average selling price would need to be $15 for them to have sold 300,000 copies and only grossed roughly $4.5 million. If the backers aren’t included, that’s 33,000 more. Say 50k given that some backers got multiple copies.

300k is not something we have data on from any kind of source. It's just what I consider to be the absolute conceivable ceiling, the most optimistic scenario, based on what information we have so far, and keeping in mind we don't know anything about the GOG sales - they may be proportional to the steam sales, or like with Pathfinder Kingmaker, disproportionately high on GOG relative to Steam.

To sell 250k units then, we’re talking an average price of $18. 200k is $22.50

How did you arrive to these numbers?

Maybe Deadfire was hugely popular in poor counties with super cheap regional pricing and not very popular in the anglosphere or Europe

It's the opposite, according to Obsidian's own polls, the results of which were public.

I trust the financials more than the steam leak—accurate revenue data is always more reliable than a channel check.

As mustawd said, you don't have the most important component to deduce accurate sales numbers through the revenue numbers - the average price. So, I'd rather trust the polling, especially when it's confirmed by another source - the arstechnica leak.

 

[Fairfax]

Any idea when the cut-off point for paying dividend was? I mean at what point the sales after that certain day will be paid in the next round of dividend payments?

Calendar Q3, so up to September 30.

We really need geographic numbers

This was PoE1's geographical data:

Does anyone remember how Tyranny sold? Wondering if Deadfire may have done worse.

Last archived Steamspy number is 314,019 owners. Also, the offering circular suggested Tyranny hadn't recovered its development costs at the time.

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

Yeah, I have to take my cap off and bow to the unique math talent, who managed to calculate 90k copies sold on all platforms by November, of a game that had confirmed 203k players in July just on Steam.

 

[Fairfax]

Yeah, I have to take my cap off and bow to the unique math talent, who managed to calculate 90k copies sold on all platforms by November, of a game that had confirmed 203k players in July just on Steam.

Except I specifically said "at $50", because it was just an example without backers and without an estimate for the average price. I'm well aware of the 203k number, I was the one who posted it in the first place.

 

[Whisper]

Kinda sad that PoE2 failed, despite me not playing it even for free.

It is shitty game, but it can inspire some market...

 

[FreeKaner]

Daily reminder that PoE1-2 sold less than Shadowrun trilogy.

 

[Urthor]

I think the tl;dr from quality reddit detectives which Codex hasn't cottoned on to is that 200k players on Steam is NOT 200k sales because backers (and the ASP of Russians being super low), and the financial success of the game was dependant on having actual sellers.

If you wipe 100k off the 203k that was in the Steam database leak because they are all backers and they don't contribute financially to FIG then this game is doing shockingly poorly in the financial department.

Which is reflected in the first year dividend for FIG apparently being 191 dollars in an industry where you are supposed to break even 1 day after release....

 

[BEvers]

Maybe Deadfire was hugely popular in poor counties with super cheap regional pricing and not very popular in the anglosphere or Europe, but that seems like a stretch.

Maybe the people who backed the game at $29 on Fig were mostly from countries where $29 is considered cheap for a video game. So Americans backed or slacker backed the game for $29, while Russians and Turks bought it at launch for $20.

 

[AwesomeButton]

...200k players on Steam is NOT 200k sales...

This is indisputably true.

If you wipe 100k off the 203k that was in the Steam database leak because they are all backers

Fig shows 33,614 backers, what is this 100k?

You are also not accounting for GOG sales.

 

[AwesomeButton]

Daily reminder that PoE1-2 sold less than Shadowrun trilogy.

Shadowruns have better plot and writing. Go figure.

IMO Deadfire failed by marketing first and foremost, not much to do with the game's qualities.

 

[Haba]

200-250k sales is as good a guesstimate you'll be able to get. Accounting backer keys, backer extra copies, GOG sales and refunds. And those who bought copies that but didn't launch the game (r00fles!).

And with those kind of sales, Feargus Inc. has not recouped the development costs.

 

[FreeKaner]

IMO Deadfire failed by marketing first and foremost, not much to do with the game's qualities.

Dumpsterfire's failure has to do with Obsidian's insistence of making it a direct sequel and keeping the plot about gods, philosophy and spirituality.

All they needed to do was an independent game that doesn't have pseudo-philosophical and pseudo-theological trash in it, let us enjoy a colonial East Indies. The game and its story & writing feels like a slog. The lack of confidence in their plot is also apparent in writing, as they keep it as disconnected as possible. In general, the insecurity of the game oozes through it, where at every level they are trying to get you to take part in and not miss out anxiously.

Maybe after Microsoft's acquisition where they'll have funds from higher ups and with Feargus curtailed they might move away from such derivative garbage. Tyranny was unique.

 

[AwesomeButton]

Dumpsterfire's failure has to do with Obsidian's insistence of making it a direct sequel and keeping the plot about gods, philosophy and spirituality.

This is something I've recently been considering. Could it be that isometric games have a hard cap on how deep and complex the plot and story can go, how nuanced and complex the characters can be, and how dramatic their arcs?

Maybe it's simply not feasible to achieve the same kind of emotional impact on the audience with an isometric RPG, (no matter how good your writing is) which you can achieve with full 3d, lipsynched, acted out in-engine cutscenes?

What if isometric RPGs can't go any deeper than BG and P:KM level of general tone and seriousness?

 

[fantadomat]

Yeah, I have to take my cap off and bow to the unique math talent, who managed to calculate 90k copies sold on all platforms by November, of a game that had confirmed 203k players in July just on Steam.

Thank god that trolls don't need math,otherwise you would have been shitty at trolling.

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

FreeKaner

Direct sequel would definitely make some buyers wary, but not nearly enough of them to explain monumental drop in sales. It's the owners of the first game who didn't show up.

 

[fantadomat]

Daily reminder that PoE1-2 sold less than Shadowrun trilogy.

Shadowruns have better plot and writing. Go figure.

IMO Deadfire failed by marketing first and foremost, not much to do with the game's qualities.

All the game journos and youtube roaches were prising it to high heaven. It was not the greatest marketing but not 100,000 sales bad.

 

[FreeKaner]

Dumpsterfire's failure has to do with Obsidian's insistence of making it a direct sequel and keeping the plot about gods, philosophy and spirituality.

Not sure I agree with that. Quality writing is good irrespective of the "topic".

That's true to a degree, but a medium dictates how effective the topic can be expressed. Moreover, writers are people and they have topics which they are more familiar with and excel at. You can see this in dumpsterfire itself, the quests and areas that deal with more mundane aspects of the colonial islands it's a lot more enjoyable and writing feels like they were at their element.

 

[fantadomat]

Dumpsterfire's failure has to do with Obsidian's insistence of making it a direct sequel and keeping the plot about gods, philosophy and spirituality.

This is something I've recently been considering. Could it be that isometric games have a hard cap on how deep and complex the plot and story can go, how nuanced and complex the characters can be, and how dramatic their arcs?

Maybe it's simply not feasible to achieve the same kind of emotional impact on the audience with an isometric RPG, (no matter how good your writing is) which you can achieve with full 3d, lipsynched, acted out in-engine cutscenes?

What if isometric RPGs can't go any deeper than BG and P:KM level of general tone and seriousness?

 

[FreeKaner]

Dumpsterfire's failure has to do with Obsidian's insistence of making it a direct sequel and keeping the plot about gods, philosophy and spirituality.

This is something I've recently been considering. Could it be that isometric games have a hard cap on how deep and complex the plot and story can go, how nuanced and complex the characters can be, and how dramatic their arcs?

Maybe it's simply not feasible to achieve the same kind of emotional impact on the audience with an isometric RPG, (no matter how good your writing is) which you can achieve with full 3d, lipsynched, acted out in-engine cutscenes?

What if isometric RPGs can't go any deeper than BG and P:KM level of general tone and seriousness?

I don't think it's necessarily that, but rather the fact Obsidian writer team was not fit to tackle such a topic, especially at what's supposed to be ultimately a game about exploration and combat. You don't have to make it saturday morning cartoon tone like BG is, but I think you should also keep it more personal and involved. Shadowrun series for example deal with quite sentimental topics and look even worse and don't have any better sound design (much better music though) and I'd say they do a good job at pulling you into the world.

In PoE1 but especially in dumpsterfire, it all feels so disconnected and unengaging. Meanwhile in White March where story was more personal and involved, as well as with several operating factions, the game felt a lot more able to involve you in it.

 

[fantadomat]

FreeKaner

Direct sequel would definitely make some buyers wary , but not nearly enough of them to explain monumental drop in sales. It's the owners of the first game who didn't show up.

Depends how bad the first game was in their eyes. It is pretty obvious that people that bought the first game didn't touch this one. They managed to alienate even fans like me. Also people are forgetting about Tyranny and its show of shitty writing. A lot of things played role in the 100,000 sold copies.