Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[fantadomat]

to graphics

Don't care,not why i buy RPGs.

full VO

Same as the first one.

itemization

50 swords and 5 shitty bond items....not an improvement

nfinitely more complex class development

Yeah,sure. It is the same class D&D system that we play for the last 30 years. Strength giving you 3% more damage is not something new. The system being mathematicly complex for autistic reasons doesn't make it any good.

linear experience into a non-linear one

You mean like any other CRPG?

In the end i do know where the money went,i am saying that the game is not worth the money. It is more shallow,boring and empty game than the first one. The content is less,very few real dungeons and a lot of generic feeling maps. The exploration and the writing both such....the main reason why i play RPGs. If you are a mechanofag....more power to you mate,i don't care about this shit. Apparently many others also don't care about it since the game sold that bad.

 

[AwesomeButton]

the main reason why i play RPGs

I thought it was for the gnomes.

 

[fantadomat]

the main reason why i play RPGs

I thought it was for the gnomes.

There is a quest in Arcanum where you have to follow a conspiracy about gnomes. It turns out that gnomes were kidnapping prominent human females and making Ogres force rape them until they can't produce any more half-ogre kids aka death. They were using the half-ogres for bodyguards.
And from here comes the hate for gnomes in all codexers.

Play the fucking game and stop being an ass mate.

 

[TalesfromtheCrypt]

Ah Ok DRIL is Fearguses little off-shore company, how could I forget. You can bet that Feargus is doing everything he can to screw Fig-investors over and share as little of PoE2's meager revenues as he possibly can.
Any sales estimates based on the Fig investor report will be skewed towards the lower end of the range.

 

[Flou]

Honestly, it's a pointless conversation. We have two numbers that can be confirmed: One is Fig revenue, and the other is 203k Steam players from Arstechnica leak 4 months ago. To figure out everythinge else we have to arbitrarily adjust average price and arbitrarily adjust the number of copies that don't get counted as revenue, until both of our confirmed numbers start fitting together. That's not data, that's just speculation.

In the end number of units moved is not relevant, revenue is what matters. $4 million in 6 months means that Deadfire bombed as fuck. And we already knew that anyways.

For shareholders yes, unless Obsidian and Fig are playing some sort of stalling game here (which I guess would be fraud as well) and they plan out to pay some of the dividends that should have been paid now during the next cut off point. Or if there is a waiting period before transactions from GOG and Steam register to FIG/Obsidian so they can count those sales into the number. (Longer than the end of September). They did sell a quite good number of copies when the first DLC hit the stores, 2nd one got killed by Bugfinderatchmaker.

For Obsidian... It depends how much of their own money did they put into the game? They got like 4 million from the FIGstarter (should pay for college for Feargus' kids and maybe a beachhouse or two) and sales of 3.7 million dollars (based on mustawd calculations) that's almost 8 millions of the game's budget covered there.
If Feargus was sneaky, he used some of those 4 million dollars from the FIG campaign to actually develop the DLCs and developing those didn't cost Obsidian any extra while all the revenue will be pocketed by Feargus/Obsidian.

It's definately not a hit and they've made a loss with the game so far. But unless the game cost more than 15 million dollars, they will eventually make profit. Maybe not during next year, but by late 2020 or by 2021 (Not something they were expecting for, for sure). The game has a long tail when it comes to sales and I think we've already seen that with both Tyranny and Pillars, not to mention with Divinity:Original Sin.
Obsidian still have the console version coming up (console market isn't being flooded with crpgs after all) and the definitive edition will be more lucrative next year once the game is finished. The Obsidian Edition (Base game + DLCs) has already almost outsold the basic Deadfire version on GOG.
Possible 3rd game and the end of the "trilogy" should push the sales of both Pillars and Deadfire as well. I don't think even Feargus is that stupid he would not make a 3rd game. Just stop Sawyer from creating everything from scratch again. Minor tweaks, new setting, plot, maps and enemies and higher levels. Keep Sawyer and his endless tinkering to a minimum and you don't have to spend endless amount of time on mechanics. Raise few millions dollars from KS/FIG and throw in 5-7 million of your own money into it. They should have it, unless the owners have been pocketing the income from Deadfire and DLC sales.

Now, Versus Evil and their brazilian developer could totally fuck up the release of the console versions. I wouldn't put it past them to fuck it up royally. That would hurt Obsidian, more than it would hurt Red Cerberus and Versus Evil. People google Deadfire and they see Obsidian, they won't bother to read that the game is being made by some brazilians for the consoles.

Neverthless, this is the end result of very badly done marketing. Their FIG campaing went really quiet in last months, when they should have been bombarding with new videos. Versus Evil did what it did with Banner Saga 2 and decided not to market it at all.
After Deadfire 2 and Banner Saga 2 both failed badly, one has to wonder why anyone would pick Versus Evil ever again as a publisher for anything.

They have Mikey, Aarik etc. use them to fucking promote the games. Use your goddamn employees and their personalities to market the games if you don't have the budget to get coverage on sites/magazines/streamers that matter. But don't just roll over and wait for everyone to flock to your new game, just because it's out. Most people don't give a shit about what's out unless it's being blasted in their face when they are surfing the Web.

 

[AwesomeButton]

Imagine them making a TB Pillars 3 without Sawyer's direct involvement and that one outselling Deadfire.

 

[Flou]

Whatever, be creative and make something with already preexisting assets that it simple enough so even someone who hasn't played the main series can enjoy. There are a lot of indie titles like this, and similar projects could not only be financially viable to fill the void while you're waiting for the next release, they could also be a testing ground for new employees and new ideas. If they become successful, they would also increase IP's value and maybe bring an entirely new audience to the series as well. Win-win-win...

P.S. so yeah, TL;DR, I just wanted to get this out. Simply mind-boggling they've chosen to do things in the way they did. Good luck, and thanks for all the fishes.

Feargus doesn't really do creative. That's the thing, he plays it really safe and we will never get a PC game from Obsidian that cost only 1-2 million dollars to make, because Feargus just won't have it.
When he should have used those damn millions they made with Pillars and create something new and exciting, they made a fucking card game for phones and tablets that they later on ported to PC. (Okay, some of that money went into Deadfire, not sure if Indiana's prototyping/pitching was paid with them monies as well).

Sawyer's historical turn based crpg? Don't think it will happen either.

 

[CyberWhale]

Flou agree with everything except maybe the third sequel. They can re-use everything and make a new title altogether. Just a lot of reskinning to do. For example, a lion can easily become a panther, leopard, tiger or whatever. Just give them different abilities and interesting backstory and you're ready to go.

P.S. I know the things I've proposed won't happen. The Obsidian guys, like many other, just left the Codex forums when their first game got released. Not surprising really.

 

[Flou]

Imagine them making a TB Pillars 3 without Sawyer's direct involvement and that one outselling Deadfire.

At this point I wouldn't even be surprised if the 3rd game was turn based with Sawyer directing and they would redo the mechanics completely for the 3rd time.

 

[CyberWhale]

Turn-based ain't happening. New mechanics? I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[Kyl Von Kull]

tl;dr: investors and Fig got fucked, Obsidian DRIL's owners covered their asses and will be fine.

That explains it, but I’m not sure how well their asses are covered. Good faith is read into most U.S. contracts and offering documents. You can include a risk factor like, "DRIL may run off with the money and you have no recourse except for some free Steam keys of dubious value," but if DRIL actually runs off with a chunk of the money there's a good chance they'd lose the resulting lawsuit. Maybe Feargus' best protection is that his investors don't have deep enough pockets to pay good lawyers.

Examples in these things can also really fuck over the issuer. If the actual mechanism is that Fig gets whatever DRIL decides to give them, then they really shouldn't have included those models that suggest otherwise. I've seen hedge and private equity funds get in trouble for exactly this kind of thing with the SEC. The fact that Dark Rock and Fig have a lot of overlap in their ownership also wouldn't help in the event of litigation.

 

[TT1]

I did the math here and the results are: Deadfire sold 240 million copies. Thanks.

 

[HeatEXTEND]

It is pretty obvious that people that bought the first game didn't touch this one.

damn right they didn't. People forget quickly but not that quickly.

 

[HeatEXTEND]

It turns out that gnomes were kidnapping prominent human females and making Ogres force rape them until they can't produce any more half-ogre kids aka death. They were using the half-ogres for bodyguards.

ALLEDGEDLY!
WHERE'S YOUR PROOF?
THIS IS SLANDER!!!
ALLEDGEDLYYYY!!!!!!!!!!

Spoiler

 

[fantadomat]

It turns out that gnomes were kidnapping prominent human females and making Ogres force rape them until they can't produce any more half-ogre kids aka death. They were using the half-ogres for bodyguards.

ALLEDGEDLY!
WHERE'S YOUR PROOF?
THIS IS SLANDER!!!
ALLEDGEDLYYYY!!!!!!!!!!

Spoiler

I still have your journal under my pillow mate. Also no prof is needed for me to be racist gnomofob that kills on sight

 

[Fairfax]

Examples in these things can also really fuck over the issuer. If the actual mechanism is that Fig gets whatever DRIL decides to give them, then they really shouldn't have included those models that suggest otherwise. I've seen hedge and private equity funds get in trouble for exactly this kind of thing with the SEC. The fact that Dark Rock and Fig have a lot of overlap in their ownership also wouldn't help in the event of litigation.

It's not what DRIL decides to give them (if they follow the agreement). Here's how it works:

1. PoE2 makes $1000 from new copies on Steam.
2. Steam takes $300, DRIL gets $700.
3. Fig takes 16.1% of DRIL's $700 = $112.7.
4. Fig shares 85% of that with investors (could be higher/lower at the board's discretion).

However, if DRIL has an arrangement with another company, Fig could be taking 16.1% of a smaller amount than expected.

Example: if Versus Evil takes 10% after distributions fees, DRIL makes $630 instead of $700. Now, instead of making $112.7, Fig makes $101.43.

DRIL could preserve Fig's revenue by paying VE after Fig's cut. However, by sharing the revenue with VE before that step, DRIL and VE can have more flexibility (and money) with their arrangement. They could keep more money between themselves by giving VE a bigger cut, even if that money goes back to DRIL in another way. For instance: they may have signed a deal where VE pays for the VO and console ports in exchange for a bigger cut. DRIL would technically make less money from each new copy, but they could be saving money in the process, since they were originally going to pay for that stuff themselves.

 

[Flou]

Examples in these things can also really fuck over the issuer. If the actual mechanism is that Fig gets whatever DRIL decides to give them, then they really shouldn't have included those models that suggest otherwise. I've seen hedge and private equity funds get in trouble for exactly this kind of thing with the SEC. The fact that Dark Rock and Fig have a lot of overlap in their ownership also wouldn't help in the event of litigation.

It's not what DRIL decides to give them (if they follow the agreement). Here's how it works:

1. PoE2 makes $1000 from new copies on Steam.
2. Steam takes $300, DRIL gets $700.
3. Fig takes 16.1% of DRIL's $700 = $112.7.
4. Fig shares 85% of that with investors (could be higher/lower at the board's discretion).

However, if DRIL has an arrangement with another company, Fig could be taking 16.1% of a smaller amount than expected.

Example: if Versus Evil takes 10% after distributions fees, DRIL makes $630 instead of $700. Now, instead of making $112.7, Fig makes $101.43.

DRIL could preserve Fig's revenue by paying VE after Fig's cut. However, by sharing the revenue with VE before that step, DRIL and VE can have more flexibility (and money) with their arrangement. They could keep more money between themselves by giving VE a bigger cut, even if that money goes back to DRIL in another way. For instance: they may have signed a deal where VE pays for the VO and console ports in exchange for a bigger cut. DRIL would technically make less money from each new copy, but they could be saving money in the process, since they were originally going to pay for that stuff themselves.

So, Fairfax isn't Avellone after all. It's Feargus himself.

 

[AwesomeButton]

Turn-based ain't happening. New mechanics? I wouldn't be surprised.

Why not - turn based means easier access to consoles.

It's not what DRIL decides to give them (if they follow the agreement). Here's how it works:

1. PoE2 makes $1000 from new copies on Steam.
2. Steam takes $300, DRIL gets $700.
3. Fig takes 16.1% of DRIL's $700 = $112.7.
4. Fig shares 85% of that with investors (could be higher/lower at the board's discretion).

However, if DRIL has an arrangement with another company, Fig could be taking 16.1% of a smaller amount than expected.

Example: if Versus Evil takes 10% after distributions fees, DRIL makes $630 instead of $700. Now, instead of making $112.7, Fig makes $101.43.

DRIL could preserve Fig's revenue by paying VE after Fig's cut. However, by sharing the revenue with VE before that step, DRIL and VE can have more flexibility (and money) with their arrangement. They could keep more money between themselves by giving VE a bigger cut, even if that money goes back to DRIL in another way. For instance: they may have signed a deal where VE pays for the VO and console ports in exchange for a bigger cut. DRIL would technically make less money from each new copy, but they could be saving money in the process, since they were originally going to pay for that stuff themselves.

Yeah, I figure through DRIL's participation and the arrangement you cited it becomes possible for Feargus to divert as much revenues away from Fig as he considers to be safe from suspicion.

 

[CyberWhale]

Turn-based ain't happening. New mechanics? I wouldn't be surprised.

Why not - turn based means easier access to consoles.

A direct sequel to end a trilogy would not have a different playstyle than the first two games. If it was something else entirely and nothing to do with The Watcher and his story - possible.

 

[fantadomat]

There won't be a third game for a very long time. Microsoft is buying them to pump up Xbone games,while the PoE IP is owned by shell company. Don't know if they intend to sell it to microsoft or if they eve want it. Also the fat toad is going to leave the company a half year after the merger and live lazily for a long time.

 

[CyberWhale]

If Microsoft buys both the studio and IP we might get a full-blown AAA reboot. Something like Dragon Age, but only on Xbox and maybe PC.

 

[Kyl Von Kull]

The Versus Evil arrangement is totally aboveboard. It was the second part that raised eyebrows.

It also explicitly says there's no guarantee that DRIL won't underpay Fig, and that Fig won't try to check the books:

Under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement, DRIL will collect most or all of the receipts from distributors from the sale of Pillars of Eternity II, net of distributor fees, and then allocate such receipts among itself, Fig and any third-party co-publisher(s) that DRIL has engaged to publish Pillars of Eternity II. There can be no assurance that the arrangement will not lead to nonpayment or underpayment to Fig of its Pillars of Eternity II revenue share. Under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement, DRIL is required to maintain, and to cause Obsidian to maintain, books and records reasonably sufficient to permit verification of its payments of receipts to Fig, and Fig may examine these books and records. However, in the ordinary course of the business relationship under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement, DRIL’s collections and payments of receipts will not be subjected to audits or other third-party verification efforts that are conducted for Fig’s benefit. In addition, although DRIL may have audit rights with some of the distributors from which it will receive receipts from sales of Pillars of Eternity II, disputes with distributors regarding their payments could harm relationships with the distributor and could be costly and time-consuming to pursue. As a result, it may not be commercially feasible for DRIL to verify payments made to it by distributors.

So what's Fig's protection against that?

DRIL will deliver to Fig 5,000 valid Steam game keys for Pillars of Eternity II (the “Fig Keys”) on the PC Licensed Platforms (or such other keys format as mutually agreed) no later than 14 days from the commercial launch of Pillars of Eternity II. The Fig Keys will be solely owned by Fig and will be used for the sale of Pillars of Eternity II by Fig on Fig.co, or by any distributors that Fig has engaged to distribute Pillars of Eternity II and that DRIL has pre-approved. The price offered for purchase of the Fig Keys will not at any point in time be less than the then current price of Pillars of Eternity II on Steam. In the event that DRIL underpays the amounts owed to Fig under the Pillars of Eternity II License Agreement, Fig shall have full rights and license to sell, at Fig’s sole discretion, an amount of Fig Keys through any distributor, and retain 100% of the sales receipts of those sales sufficient to offset any underpaid amount.

Your recourse if DRIL underpays is 5,000 steam keys that won't be worth very much when the game is a flop (and it's unclear if they can sell them at a discount: "At any point in time" versus "at Fig's sole discretion")? Nah, if DRIL underpays--not because of the co-publishing deal--then that's bad faith and grounds for a lawsuit. Since only Fig can look at the books and Fig is Feargus' baby, I don't see how anyone could confirm that DRIL is paying what they owe without a lawsuit in the first place.

 

[fantadomat]

If Microsoft buys both the studio and IP we might get a full-blown AAA reboot. Something like Dragon Age, but only on Xbox and maybe PC.

I was trying to make a joke pic of pillars on some popamole game. But the fuckers don't have even popamole games,couldn't find any real games released by them. The closest shit was halo and forza. They are pretty dead as publisher and developer,no wonder they buy studios left and right.

 

[Thal]

Yeah, I figure through DRIL's participation and the arrangement you cited it becomes possible for Feargus to divert as much revenues away from Fig as he considers to be safe from suspicion.

Well, they never promised that they would pay back their investors .

Seriously though, whoever thought that investing into a project like this on those terms is dumber than a bag of rocks and deserves to lose their money. If the returns promised satisfy you, just buy some Verizon stock or whatever the fuck is the dominant telecom company in your country, and enjoy watching dividends trickle down into your pocket for the rest of your life.

 

[Mustawd]

Just fyi, if you’re an investor in a public company in the US, the financials are audited. Also, it’s common for public equity funds to also be audited, even though they’re private.

Aka, all better investment vehicles than Fig, where as an investor you’re not even assured the numbers or the processes are at least looked at by a third party. What a joke, lol.