Eternity PoE II: Deadfire Sales Analysis Thread

[Chris Avellone]

Chris Avellone , based on your knowledge of Obsidian, its management, and game production in general, do you see signs of Deadfire not meeting expectations, and what expectations do you imagine had been set for it?

This’ll be vague, but I’ll try and be informative anyway:

First, there was a hope it would hit certain numbers, because the Director (?) of Marketing’s role at the company was based on Deadfire hitting those hoped-for numbers (this sales number was pre-established, as I understand it).

When Deadfire didn’t hit those numbers, his employment was ended not long after.

(I don’t think there was any drama in this because the sales target was understood going in, and I've spoken to him since re: other projects. Also, I don't know how much Versus Evil's and Fig's marketing pushes really helped, so he may have been hobbled from the outset.)

I'm a little biased on VE and Fig b/c I don't think VE did much do get Banner Saga 2's awareness up, for example, and even companies working with Fig have criticized how much the platform helps with awareness (esp. vs. Kickstarter awareness).

But the crux of your question: I don’t know what those exact hoped-for Deadfire numbers were, but the hope was there or else an expectation wouldn’t have been set.

If I were to guess, the hope was that Deadfire would perform at least as well as BG2 as compared to BG1’s sales, and critically as well. I don’t think the Steam leaked sales numbers were very good for the first few months of sales (and I'm not sure of this, but if it was based on those who "owned" it, then some of those sales had already happened in the crowdsourcing campaign, and then you have to take into account how much Obsidian put into the title outside of the campaign, etc, etc.).

So in short: I’d imagine the hope was DF would sell more than PoE in a ratio of sales comparable to BG2:BG1, have a higher Metacritic and Steam score (it came close to the original PoE's score with Metacritic, and Steam reviews aren’t bad) to about +5% for both scales.

I don't think it's a failure, and RPGs tend to have a long lifetime, so I think they’ll want to do a third, if only to finish the story arc since Deadfire seemed to stop at the beginning of that final arc to lay the foundation.

 

[Lacrymas]

Well, Obs certainly were fabulously optimistic about this game. Unrealistically so perhaps.

 

[AwesomeButton]

I have two old posts from this thread that I wish to remind you of:

I wonder what results their DLC/FLC schedule will bring by the end of the summer. This has to be far below their expectations. I'd speculate it's somewhere around the numbers of Siege of Dragonspear.

Yeah I think it Deadfire should break 500k eventually with discounts and bundles and eventual GOTY edition and whatnot.

By the same arstechnica provided csv, PoE has sold about 300k units between the winter of 2017 when it was just under a million and now, when it's 1 275 000. So yes, Deadfire sales have every prospect of keeping a steady growth in the coming years.

Regarding VE/Fig's marketing, I think we've all been surprised by how little both seemed to be occupied with promoting Deadfire.

 

[Lacrymas]

There's no doubt it will have a long tail, RPGs usually do, but I doubt it will be enough to make a PoE3 or any isometric RPG ever again. Or until they need the usual injection of cash not to go bankrupt completely.

 

[AwesomeButton]

If they indeed get bought by Microsoft, the studio's history is essentially over. It hasn't been the Obsidian we knew for some time, but I doubt that under Microsoft anyone will leave them to producing 9 million-budget games which barely sell 1 million copies. I really don't imagine them putting out anything isometric if this scenario plays out.

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

It was fools errand if they were hoping to beat the reviews of the first game - Metacritic aggregate for Pillars 1 is quite clearly inflated. Similar to most of the first-wave Kickstarter projects. I'm guessing reviewers didn't want to be too hypercritical towards a new phenomenon that was transforming the industry. But once the second-wave games started coming out, the gloves came off.

 

[Infinitron]

If they indeed get bought by Microsoft, the studio's history is essentially over. It hasn't been the Obsidian we knew for some time, but I doubt that under Microsoft anyone will leave them to producing 9 million-budget games which barely sell 1 million copies. I really don't imagine them putting out anything isometric if this scenario plays out.

Divinity: Original Sin clones with 3D and multiplayer.

It was fools errand if they were hoping to beat the reviews of the first game - Metacritic aggregate for Pillars 1 is quite clearly inflated. Similar to most of the first-wave Kickstarter. I'm guessing reviewers didn't want to be too hypecritical towards a new phenonenon that was transforming the industry. But once the second-wave games started coming out, the gloves came off.

IIRC the PoE2 Metacritic was initially higher than PoE1's and remained so for at least a week or two, but eventually there was a review that took it down.

 

[LESS T_T]

Microsoft is willing to do mid-ranged games, especially so with Xbox Game Pass (subscription service).

Some recent examples: Ori series, New Battletoads game, Halo Wars, Gears Tactics, Age of Empires remasters and the forth game.

 

[AwesomeButton]

Divinity: Original Sin clones with 3D and multiplayer.

Yeah, this option crossed my mind too. A sad epitaph.

But to look on the bright side - they have just the writing team for it! :D

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

IIRC the PoE2 Metacritic was initially higher than PoE1's and remained so for at least a week or two, but eventually there was a review that took it down.

Do you mean higher than during PoE1 launch, or higher than the final aggregate of PoE1 after all the reviews came in? The way I recall, first game launched to (stunning) 93 aggregate and kept over 90 for quite a long time, but eventually slumped into 89.

 

[AwesomeButton]

Microsoft is willing to do mid-ranged games, especially so with Xbox Game Pass (subscription service).

They are keeping with Bill's philanthropist spirit maybe.

 

[Sailor Woedica]

Microsoft is willing to do mid-ranged games, especially so with Xbox Game Pass (subscription service).

Some recent examples: Ori series, New Battletoads game, Halo Wars, Gears Tactics, Age of Empires remasters and the forth game.

Yes! They want to position themselves as the Netflix of Games and to do that you need both The Chilling Adventures of Sabrina (Obsidian) and Stranger Things (AAA games studio)

 

[AwesomeButton]

Microsoft is willing to do mid-ranged games, especially so with Xbox Game Pass (subscription service).

Some recent examples: Ori series, New Battletoads game, Halo Wars, Gears Tactics, Age of Empires remasters and the forth game.

Yes! They want to position themselves as the Netflix of Games and to do that you need both The Chilling Adventures of Sabrina (Obsidian) and Stranger Things (AAA games studio)

I checked out the series by name. This girl was actually quite great as Sally Draper in Mad Men!

 

[J_C]

What makes you think they thought it was free money?

Who they? I meant people like J_C et al who calculate Obsidian's profits here completely out of their ass, without taking into consideration Fig's cut.

Stop making shit up about me, retard!

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

Microsoft is willing to do mid-ranged games, especially so with Xbox Game Pass (subscription service).

They are keeping with Bill's philanthropist spirit maybe.

If Bill was still around, he'd be throwing all his weight behind that acquisition. Microsoft has a potential game changer on their hands with Game Pass. Its success took other giants by surprise, they know have a significant lead and can potentially transform the entire console market when next-generation hits the shelves. But for that they need constant supply of indie, mid-range and AAA content flowing into the Game Pass.

So forget about Bill's philanthropist spirit. The question is whether Microsoft have gone senile and limpdick, or if they retained some of Bill's uncanny talent to find the jugular.

 

[AwesomeButton]

I don't know what Game Pass is, and I have never owned a console. What little console playing I've done has been at the office, where we have an Xbox One.

 

[Safav Hamon]

Game pass is a new subscription service for games.

Nick is saying that they might want Obsidian to make CRPGs in order to attract a niche market into subscribing.

 

[Chris Avellone]

Game pass is a subscription service for games. Sort of like Netflix in that it also gives you access to Microsoft exclusives.

It's possible Microsoft would want Obsidian to make CRPGs in order to attract niche gamers into subscribing to gamepass.

This. And like Netflix, MS would need to snag a lot of exclusive content to keep the subscription service viable, so it would make sense in that context, and imo, that would also work well with the DLC model being used for PoE2 (which while not episodic, it does add new content frequently enough - if you have 10+ titles doing this same method per year, this helps keep Game pass viable longer).

 

[fantadomat]

I don't know how people see 200-300 thousand sales not a fail if they were expecting around the same as PoE.

 

[Chris Avellone]

It was fools errand if they were hoping to beat the reviews of the first game - Metacritic aggregate for Pillars 1 is quite clearly inflated. Similar to most of the first-wave Kickstarter projects. I'm guessing reviewers didn't want to be too hypercritical towards a new phenomenon that was transforming the industry. But once the second-wave games started coming out, the gloves came off.

I don't know if was a fools errand: Obs. may have looked in the jump in score between Original Sin and Original Sin II and concluded, "we can do that." Other design decisions (Voice over) were clearly done in that context, and the owners were involved in that decision as well.

I do agree that crowdsourcing exhaustion/wariness ("well, we don't want to be too critical of the underdogs") may have dimmed the scores once the shininess wore off.

 

[AwesomeButton]

I do agree that crowdsourcing exhaustion/wariness ("well, we don't want to be too critical of the underdogs") may have dimmed the scores once the shininess wore off.

It's kind of sad for Deadfire. I think it does deserve better scores than PoE.

Game pass is a subscription service for games. Sort of like Netflix in that it also gives you access to Microsoft exclusives.

It's possible Microsoft would want Obsidian to make CRPGs in order to attract niche gamers into subscribing to gamepass.

This. And like Netflix, MS would need to snag a lot of exclusive content to keep the subscription service viable, so it would make sense in that context, and imo, that would also work well with the DLC model being used for PoE2 (which while not episodic, it does add new content frequently enough - if you have 10+ titles doing this same method per year, this helps keep Game pass viable longer).

So, a D:OS2 clone it is then! :D

 

[IHaveHugeNick]

I don't know what Game Pass is, and I have never owned a console. What little console playing I've done has been at the office, where we have an Xbox One.

Like everybody said, it's Netflix for games. On consoles it's been a success and continues to gain momentum, with huge growth in the latest quarterly report. And for a good reason too, it's good value for your money.

It's coming to PCs likely sometime next year. And with that they'd want to attract PC audience.

 

[Nano]

Like everybody said, it's Netflix for games. On consoles it's been a success and continues to gain momentum, with huge growth in the latest quarterly report. And for a good reason too, it's good value for your money.

No it isn't. I either own my games or I don't get them at all.

 

[Glaucon]

Like everybody said, it's Netflix for games. On consoles it's been a success and continues to gain momentum, with huge growth in the latest quarterly report. And for a good reason too, it's good value for your money.

No it isn't. I either own my games or I don't get them at all.

Hope you're not on Steam.

 

[santino27]

Like everybody said, it's Netflix for games. On consoles it's been a success and continues to gain momentum, with huge growth in the latest quarterly report. And for a good reason too, it's good value for your money.

No it isn't. I either own my games or I don't get them at all.

That's fine. In this analogy, you'd be the one guy that buys the hardcopy dvds/blu rays instead of using netflix to stream 90% of the content. It doesn't make netflix/gamepass a worse value. Just means you're not interested in it.