PoE Sales Analysis Thread

[Kz3r0]

Here the measuring stick for PoE:
Sega Sold 700,000 Copies Of Alpha Protocol

Eurogamer has some sales figures from Square Enix' bi-annual financial report for Dungeon Siege 3. These appear to be actual sale numbers - Dungeon Siege 3, 820k

South Park: The Stick of Truth has sold over 1.6m

 

[Roguey]

Those are all multiplatform.

http://steamspy.com/app/34010 AP - 429,090 ± 19,054 (lol @ this bomb)
http://steamspy.com/app/39160 DS3 - 671,340 ± 23,821
http://steamspy.com/app/213670 SP - 1,174,680 ± 31,477 (told'ja this would be a hit, a greater hit than D:OS both commercially and with Steam user reviews)

Bonus: http://steamspy.com/app/2600 Bloodlines 454,800 ± 19,615

 

[Kz3r0]

Pillars of Eternity
Owners: 420,225 ± 18,856

 

[Infinitron]

Wait a few days to see if that's not a statistical fluke

 

[Abu Antar]

As I said previously, I think SteamSpy takes samples every day. I might be wrong but that is how I think it works.

...So 0.1% margin of error for a game with 0.1% of Steam audience would produce results that are mostly useless. That's why Steam Spy has to gather millions points of data daily to predict games sales and audience. And that's why Steam Spy is often wrong. Not by much, but still wrong...

Why the number of owners for the game is decreasing?
If the decrease is small, it's just the margin of error in action. Don't worry, it's still probably somewhere on that interval. Also, first day results for every game are often botched, so don't pay them too much attention.

But if decrease is huge that's because the game had a free weekend sometime ago. It seems that if user doesn't log in, Steam revokes the license for the game only after quite some time. That's why Steam Spy will see the game as 'owned' even if the user technically never bought it.

 

[Roguey]

Congrats to Obsidian for surpassing Wasteland 2's pre-summer sale numbers within three months. Now try to overtake its post-sale numbers within the next three.

It might be a temporary glitch, but they did it, they're now ahead of Wasteland 2 (at least up until the DC drops in October). Congratulations, Obsidian..!

 

[Kz3r0]

Wait a few days to see if that's not a statistical fluke

 

[Frusciante]

How much profit do you guys think Obsidian made on PoE?

About 480.000 sales now at a price of let's say 40 euro. Let's say 80.000 backers so 400.000 new sales. That makes 16 million euro.

Instinctively I would say about 50% goes to steam, paradox, marketing etc?

 

[Infinitron]

WTF, the game's number of owners went up even more today.

What's going on? Delayed effects of a recent sale on some site somewhere?

Might still go back down after the weekend, though.

 

[LESS T_T]

For reference, there's no noticeable spike in istheranydeal's trend graph after Summer Sale: http://isthereanydeal.com/#/page:game/trend?plain=pillarsofeternity

 

[Infinitron]

For reference, there's no noticeable spike in istheranydeal's trend graph after Summer Sale: http://isthereanydeal.com/#/page:game/trend?plain=pillarsofeternity

Nah, there was a noticeable rise of 40,000 owners or so after the Summer Sale IIRC

 

[Dorateen]

WTF, the game's number of owners went up even more today.

I finally got around to purchasing and started playing yesterday. It's the Dwarven effect.

 

[Infinitron]

It's back down to 460k today. Still over Wasteland 2 though.

 

[Kz3r0]

It's back down to 460k today. Still over Wasteland 2 though.

Owners: 442,478 ± 17,364

 

[Roguey]

Still holding on hope that this is actually the glitch.

PoE: Players total: 412,634 ± 16,769 (93.26%)

Wasteland 2: Players total: 407,273 ± 16,660 (89.9%)

 

[Animal]

It's the same players.

Whoever bought one, also bought the other.

 

[Infinitron]

It's the same players.

Whoever bought one, also bought the other.

Steamspy actually has the stats on this, which may surprise you.

Wasteland 2:

Pillars of Eternity:

Only 30% of Wasteland 2 owners also own Pillars of Eternity and vice versa.

 

[Athelas]

Only 30% of Wasteland 2 owners also own Pillars of Eternity and vice versa.

I wonder if that applies to the Kickstarter backers in equal measure? The answer could make for some interesting insights into Kickstarter campaigns.

Also of note is that D:OS is in the top 10 for PoE (the implication being that it's because both are fantasy RPG's), whereas it isn't for WL2. WL2 on the other hand has more post-apocalyptic games (and has them higher).

 

[Infinitron]

I wonder if that applies to the Kickstarter backers in equal measure? The answer could make for some interesting insights into Kickstarter campaigns.

Kickstarter backers are more likely to be hardcore RPG fans, so the percentage there is almost certainly higher. How much higher is the interesting question.

 

[Animal]

It's weird though.

The rest of the games are pretty much the same: Civ V, XCom, TL2, Witcher 2, FNV, Bioshock, FTL...

Wasteland 1 has 50sec playtime (came in a bundle?)

 

[Infinitron]

It's weird though.

The rest of the games are pretty much the same: Civ V, XCom, TL2, Witcher 2, FNV, Bioshock, FTL...

Wasteland 1 has 50sec playtime (came in a bundle?)

Wasteland 1 is supposed to come included with Wasteland 2. Not sure how some people don't own it, actually.

It's pretty simple though, there are "casual" gamers out there who buy all the popular games, plus one single oldschool RPG. It's good news because it means there's still lots of people out there who could potentially buy any of the others.

 

[Animal]

Got me curious:

WL2: Playtime total: 36:24 (average) 14:56 (median)

PoE: Playtime total: 34:38 (average) 18:21 (median)

Judging by this, I'll say that a big chunk of buyers didn't finish the games.

They do love their Civ V though.

 

[Infinitron]

Yeah, achievements show that around ~5% of people tend to finish these games. D:OS too.

 

[Animal]

It's good news for the industry then.

People throw their money away and don't even play the games that much.

Makes me wonder how did they make money 20 years ago, when most people pirated everything and squeezed out every bit of gameplay from the games they played.

 

[Fry]

Makes me wonder how did they make money 20 years ago, when most people pirated everything and squeezed out every bit of gameplay from the games they played.

That's just an age thing. When I was younger, I had more time than money. As a functioning adult, I have more money than time. Since a large percentage of the people buying nostalgic RPGs are probably older, it shouldn't be surprising that a lot of them don't finish the games they buy.