Consoles get a higher sell through due to the nature of console gaming, that while yes, you want to have greater visibility, console games tend to sell more naturally ( of course unless they are critically slammed ).
On top of that, the many Blockbusters, Hollywood Videos, etc, all over the country buy most console games, if only 1 or 2 copies....so there is guaranteed revenue right there. We were working on minor CG film/tv thingy some time ago, and as I was led to understand, even if the film tanked, we could look to get 20 million from direct to video purchases and rentals. I can't verify that particular amount, but if its any measure, there you go.
New console engine developement is also iterative, just like PC, so I'm not sure where the 10 - 20 million dollar investment cost comes in. You're programming on PC's for your console game, so really the only thing is the learning curve of developing the sometimes godforsaken hardware to make it do what you want it to, but nothing above and beyond the programmer costs. It was Sony and Nintendo and MS's job to spend hundreds of millions in R&D. THEY invested the money on the new technology; the developer is going to invest time reading the huge ass manuals. :D
200k for dev systems? Erm, no, unless something's changed. If I recall correctly, our PSone dev kits ran for about 20k +/-(per programmer). This was of course 7 years ago. They had big clunky boards that went inside your computer, hooked up to the fancy blue box PS's and such. I don't have specific figures for Xbox, but the PS2 is/was around 15k, with linux versions of both being had between 200 and 500 dollars( not that that matters a whole lot but whatever ). So I'm not sure where 200k comes in for hardware sans computer system.
Finally, WITH engine already complete, it would cost 3 - 4 million just for development?( someones salary is WAY too high at that point
) Fuck, it cost the brilliant( I mean this sincerely ) Peter Molyneux 7 million to make his engine for Black and White INCLUDING game from scratch( out of his own pocket I might add ). Love or hate B&W, it was an incredible piece of work. So where the heck do you spend 4 million just on asset dev when you already have the core completed?! Sheesh, no wonder no one wants to invest in games these days unless it's sure fire. Didn't all of NWN cost 5 million, with their fancy MP engine and toolkit made accessible to the masses?
In order to see games like FO and games expanded beyond the scope of the mainstream, these numbers have to come down a little. There is a lot of waste and bloat that goes into making medium to large budget games. Heh, go find the video of the RIDICULOUS shit the guys that made
Getaway for Sony did. It was WAY over the top, completely uneccessary and added absolutely nothing to the final look and play of the game ( which was not very good to add ). Money very much wasted and clearly not evident in the game.
Cheers