The Codexian Saga LP

[obediah]

Since voting seems effectively over and won by those that want to see the relatively benign Raumen replaced by the aggressive Hi'nin, I'm going to make the rational choice:

ABD

Focus on our own recovery, while dipping our toes into supporting the Raumen. Lot's of good propaganda withing smiling yet incompetent bugs and evil Hi'nin eating human babies. Send covert human envoys to the Raumen and gradually ramp up our support there. In a year, supporting the Raumen could be part of our recovery and in two we could be pandering to the human masses by sending in the fleet.

My official vote is D

 

[Brotherman Bill]

Making Marianism human-specific was a pretty stupid decision from the start, this latest development is proof - even the A-voting people must admit this, since most of them claims popular support at home is part of the reason they vote A... If we hadn't made our religion xenophobic we wouldn't have had this unnecessary restriction.

 

[MasterSmithFandango]

The Hin'in are the enemy, and they are weak right now. We don't know what the future holds, but current intelligence suggests that they are more vulnerable now than ever. Add to that our shield technology, we can cause the Hin'in to implode, or at least come to terms with all of the parties involved, which will remove a threat from our doorstep. They are fighting a two front war right now. The only thing worse than fighting a two front war is fighting a three front war. Our infrastructure is weak at the moment, but I would rather the economy collapse from within than to see the specter of invasion coming from without.

D

 

[Murk]

I agree completely with treave on this point. Once we've rebuilt our economy, we're in a perfect position to bring down righteous fire and wrath on all xeno.

If by perfect you mean outnumbered, poorly coordinated, and with a terrible record already, then yeah I agree.

 

[LusciousPear]

The Hin'in are the enemy, and they are weak right now. We don't know what the future holds, but current intelligence suggests that they are more vulnerable now than ever. Add to that our shield technology, we can cause the Hin'in to implode, or at least come to terms with all of the parties involved, which will remove a threat from our doorstep. They are fighting a two front war right now. The only thing worse than fighting a two front war is fighting a three front war. Our infrastructure is weak at the moment, but I would rather the economy collapse from within than to see the specter of invasion coming from without.

D

I agree with this. Let's go with D, while providing materiel to the buggies in the meantime. Bring back the AI.

We want to sue for peace, and get the buggies working for us. The thought of them owing their existence to our benevolence gives me a grin. The bugs aren't nearly as bad as the Hi'nin. We need their economic skills.

We run the religion -- we can justify this. There's many studies of human psychology which show the amount of change someone can tolerate in an institution is proportional to their vestiture in it. So we can do what we want.

This will be an interesting vote, because there's two "attack" options and two "do nothing" options. If the "attack' votes are split, and one "do nothing" has a majority by one vote ... does it really reflect the will of the people?

 

[treave]

Am I misreading the update or are the Hin'in actually curbstomping both the Bron and the Raumen and will come out of this war with their war-waging capacity entirely unscathed if we do not interfere?

Anyway... as long as the Hin'in are on the defensive I see no point in aiding the Raumen. If the balance of power begins to tilt and they manage to start driving the Bron back, then I will be in favour of intervention.

And it seems that we have faith in the Hin'in capability to instantly regain its former strength after winning a costly war. No need to rebuild its shattered industry and economy after a long, devastating war that has taken place in their own space, eh?

 

[Murk]

Well, so far it is taking place in Raumeni space and seemingly on the border of Hin'in and Bron space.

Its not that they'll be able to recuperate 100% after the fighting so much as they have already pretty much beaten the Raumeni, are insanely more organized than us (c'mon, telepathic), and it is unknown to us how much individual welfare matters to them.

Yeah, that's a big one. We know our people can put up with strife and poverty cuz they're mostly fanatical weirdos but the Hin'in, being psychic, probably understand concepts of 'greater good' or 'bigger picture' way more than we can. Raumeni are individualistic... Hin'in are collectivist, and they can probably do stuff like operate effectively on minimal input (i.e, their people signing up for war even if food is low) way better than we can.

We also don't know how relevant the Bron are - they might seriously be attacking the Hin'in with big rocks that have angry faces painted on them.

Shit, now I'm doing that thing where I speculate way too far into details.

---

I would really like to see the Turanei open a front with the Hin'in, they seem to be pretty effective mass-murderers.

 

[treave]

Let's stick to the facts then:
The Raumen are reduced to doing 'suicide swarm' attacks which, while individually extremely damaging, has an unknown effect on the whole.

The Hin'in are unable to fend off the Bron fully as the major battles seem to be taking place in Hin'in space. Probably nowhere near their capital, but still not within Bron space.

The Hin'in are unable to stamp out the Raumen due to their struggle with the Bron.

The Bron apparently do not have enough power to push right through Hin'in space to our region.

Right now it seems as if things are already in a stalemate. Unless the Hin'in pull out a superweapon I can't see them winning this easily.

Doesn't matter if they're more organized, though, we were pretty much grinding them to a standstill previously with a bigger technological disparity and a more decadent populace. Before the Commo declared independence.

 

[The Barbarian]

s but the Hin'in, being psychic, probably understand concepts of 'greater good' or 'bigger picture' way more than we can.

When they're made to understand.

The Barbarian provides this information as community service:

The Hin'in are pack animals. The strength of the pack largely depends on the strength of the alpha leading it. Hin'in telepathy is poorly understood, but is known to be fairly limited in scope.

 

[DarkUnderlord]

Esteemed Councillors, let us take stock. We have, at long last, resolved the issue of the Commonwealth. Our Brothers who had turned against us and threatened our homeworld, were shown how the might of the Respublica does not waver in the face of idle threats. Though many have suffered, as we speak, Brothers across all Human worlds are being taught of the glorious ways of Marianism.

There is, however, some cause for concern.

Leading intellectuals, successful capitalists and industrialists, community leaders, heretics and the former officer corps were ‘liquidated’ in vast numbers between 358AU and 360AU.

While no doubt necessary to finally stomp out the idea of the "Commonwealth", to end their treachery and distrust of us - their fellow Human Brothers - once and for all, what impact has such a purge had on our economy? How long will it take us to truly re-build the Commonwealth infected worlds into the righteous gloriousness they are no doubt capable of?

We must also be concerned with the wider state of the galaxy.

In the meantime, the wider Hin’in War continued to rage without pause. Raumeni space, so long occupied by the psychic aliens, was by now an almost wholly devastated battleground. Four worlds had already been ‘burned’ by the Hin’in as punishment for Raumeni stubbornness and ongoing resistance.

The Ramen are being squeezed like noodles. While - as an avowed lover of the "crush the bugs" movement - I care not for their plight after they themselves turned down selfless offers by our ancestors of assistance, it is no doubt something to be mindful of.

What happens if the Hineys win? Will the Ramen turn against us? We must also be wary of greater events.

However, it was apparent that the Hin’in simply could not spare the resources they required to crush the insectoids outright, caught up as they were in fighting the Bron.

Clearly, there is a greater foe out there. Or are they a friend? Who are these Bro's that would attack the Hiney? Are the Hineys being pushed into noodle space by the Bro? Is the Bro a greater nemesis?

Uncertain reports made mention of ‘suicide swarms’. [...] The success of this tactic and its actual usage remains ambiguous, with reliable intelligence reports being few and far between. This was truly a war being fought on a foreign shore.
[...]
Information was at an absolute premium, despite the relative excellence of the human intelligence agencies. Simply put, gauging the state of the conflict, on the whole, was proving extraordinarily difficult.

We lack knowledge on these matters.

We have shield technology but we do not know it's true effectiveness against the alien enemy.

We do not know who is winning this war, nor the true state of affairs.

There is also the matter of the A-people whose name I forget. Yet another alien race on our borders.

We must keep all of this in mind as we move forward. While it is true our religious tenets state that we are opposed to all alien scum, what would happen if all the alien scum turned against us? Would we stand or fall?

That said, I believe now is not the time. We must consolidate ourselves before we can move abroad. While we are weak, our enemies will be strong. We must be strong. There may and / or may not be a Bear in the space forest but if there is a Bear, we should be as strong as the Bear just in case, because even if there isn't a Bear there might be a Bear and if we act like there isn't a Bear only to find that there is indeed a Bear, we won't be as strong as the Bear may and / or may not be.

Our people are tired of war. Let us not forget we entered this war to stand hand-in-hand with our Brothers. They were being attacked by Ramens, pushed by their Hiney Leaders to raid what was at the time Commonwealth space. There was a time when our Ancestors - long before the rise of Anti-bugism - assisted the Ramen but were declined and turned upon.

The Ramen have had their chance. Let them suffer their fate. Let us now focus on ourselves. Let us grow strong, like the Bear. We have shown that none dare enter our space lest they face our wrath. Let us build up again. While our neighbours blow their bug brains out of each other, we will grow. The Hiney must be weakened by their war on three fronts - they cannot even crush the Ramen. The Ramen, if they indeed are resorting to desperate tactics, are no doubt close to the verge of collapse.

The Bro is unknown but I have no doubt that we will know them in time. It is clear however, that they can be fought.

So, while our would-be enemies falter, we will stand tall. When the dust settles, there may yet be an opportunity to take advantage of the situation.

Option A

Let us wash our hands of this war for now. We have plenty to worry about at home. Let us recuperate and consolidate. Who cares what happens to the bugs and other assorted aliens? We could be THE pre-eminent power in this stellar region, if these endless, costly wars could finally be set aside. Let us take the chance and equip our entire fleet with shields. Only on the back of a strong local economy can we build and maintain our glorious fleet.

 

[Brotherman Bill]

Ban DU.

He is in allegiance with the hin'in, influenced by their dark telepathic abilities.

 

[juggernaut]

option B, flip to A if necessary

 

[MasterSmithFandango]

When will it be necessary to join the war? When the Hin'in start winning and pushing their foes back, so that they have the spare material to turn their attention to us? You don't wait for the balance of power to shift before you interfere, you shift the balance of power yourself. At best later on, with our severely limited numbers compared to both the Hin'in, the Raumeni, and presumably the Bron, we'll bring it back to a stalemate, and then get entangled in a long war ourselves. The time to tip the balance is now, when we can make that difference. We don't have the numbers that any of our enemies have, and ultimate power in the stellar region will quickly dissolve into tallest midget once the war ends. The time to strike is now.

 

[Brotherman Bill]

So... Everyone voting A, with the reasoning that we need to rebuild before going into war:
Have you ever considered that the hin'in might rebuild as well? By the time we are done rebuilding (which is "never" according to you types) the hin'in have started rebuilding as well... And unlike us, they have their core industrial worlds intact, as well as considerable colonial worlds.

So, assume that their total territory is three times as large as ours (conservative estimate). In this case, we will have to grow three times as fast as they only to keep up with their total growth. And on top of this, their industry is likely in better shape than ours already.

So in short trying to do this alone, shields or no shields, is ridiculous and fanatical. From our very first contact the hin'in were always about divide and conquer, and you guys are not only oblivious to that strategy, you are actively endorsing it... Codexia has suffered enough abuse throughout the ages; don't make her suffer more. Don't vote A.

 

[praetor]

option B. the longer we stall the psychomidgets, the better

 

[Murk]

Doesn't matter if they're more organized, though, we were pretty much grinding them to a standstill previously with a bigger technological disparity and a more decadent populace. Before the Commo declared independence.

We were doing it at a ridiculous trade-off of how many lives/ships we lose compared to how much damage we do. It was something like 3:1, those are numbers that I can't possibly accept as an actual 'strategy'.

The other thing is, if they are in a standstill now - why not tip the balance? Though we have fucked the Raumeni over enough in the past that it may not even worth be salvaging now, but eh.

 

[LusciousPear]

Remember in "Ender's Game", they figured out the secret to defeating the telepathic bugs was to destroy the leader?

They way they did it is by observing how the fleet moved -- Ender and Mance realized that all the ships moved from the "perspective" of one main ship. That's how the found the leaders, and took 'em out.

Can we use this to our advantage?

If we can concentrate on taking down the fleet leaders... we'll win.

 

[treave]

So... Everyone voting A, with the reasoning that we need to rebuild before going into war:
Have you ever considered that the hin'in might rebuild as well? By the time we are done rebuilding (which is "never" according to you types) the hin'in have started rebuilding as well... And unlike us, they have their core industrial worlds intact, as well as considerable colonial worlds.

Assuming the war will end before damaging their industrial worlds, or that their industrial worlds aren't already damaged, assuming that the Hin'in will actually win. There's enough variables we can't predict.

Also, they had about two thousand ships total in their entire fleet before this war started - about as much as the Commonwealth and Codexia combined. Not insurmountable odds. Don't turn the Hin'in Empire into some bogeyman that is unbeatable unless we strike now. Leave that sort of stuff for propaganda aimed towards the sheeple.

The only thing harming Codexia here is jumping into a war we have no business in while our economy is unstable - haven't we done that enough times already to know it's a bad idea?

We were doing it at a ridiculous trade-off of how many lives/ships we lose compared to how much damage we do. It was something like 3:1, those are numbers that I can't possibly accept as an actual 'strategy'.

The other thing is, if they are in a standstill now - why not tip the balance? Though we have fucked the Raumeni over enough in the past that it may not even worth be salvaging now, but eh.

That ridiculous trade-off was during an era of greater technological disparity. The difference shouldn't be too great right now, plus shielding compensates for inferior mobility.

As for the Raumen, acting this late to help them could give them the impression we're just trying to get a piece of the pie after they've done all the heavy work. But really, I wouldn't speculate too much on this.

Fact is, our economy is TOTTERING. That's the exact same word that the Barbarian used. Our economy is about to collapse. Getting into a war right now will collapse it. This is not speculation, this is fact. Thinking about the political ramifications of the future is all well and good but there's no point if we break our economy, allow Commonwealth remnants to regain support, and, more importantly, hurt our people for the sake of alien lives.

But, hey, if the Barbarian assures us we can last a few years in sustained war with the Hin'in without fragmenting our socio-economic landscape, I retract whatever I just said. :D

 

[The Barbarian]

If we were to agree on B, how deep would be its impact on the codexian rebuilding effort, barbarian?

There is no potential for the supply of materiel to the Raumeni to collapse the Respublican economy, though the rebuilding effort would definitely be somewhat derailed.

But, hey, if the Barbarian assures us we can last a few years in sustained war with the Hin'in without fragmenting our socio-economic landscape, I retract whatever I just said.

Your policy advisers and economic think tanks would state that a war, at this stage, would definitely not help the economy - but that the state would likely manage the burden, barring any major disaster. The Venerable Respublica has been on a de facto war footing for some time now, already. The citizenry is somewhat inured to material deprivation.

 

[MasterSmithFandango]

Your numbers are off. The Hin'in had probably 2-3 times as many ships at least as Codexia and the Commonwealth combined. They're now facing a war on their own soil, so assuming that they won't be building is stupid. We can fix our economy later if need be, we can eliminate a significant threat to our borders now, and probably not later. The Raumeni won't last much longer: They're he Japanese at Okinawa right now, doing anything they can to cause damage, but with no real chance of winning the war. That means that the Hin'in have been able to split the forces against them and are still winning one front while at least stalemating the other. We can tip that balance, and missing that opportunity is completely foolish.

 

[treave]

Ah yes, we only matched the number of ships they had in the Raumen territories. My memory was faulty. Sorry.

Your policy advisers and economic think tanks would state that a war, at this stage, would definitely not help the economy - but that the state would likely manage the burden, barring any major disaster. The Venerable Respublica has been on a de facto war footing for some time now, already. The citizenry is somewhat inured to material deprivation.

And thus I retract my prior statement. If this is the case then war would not be as disastrous as I thought and is now a very viable option to doing nothing.

 

[Murk]

That ridiculous trade-off was during an era of greater technological disparity. The difference shouldn't be too great right now, plus shielding compensates for inferior mobility.

Shielding will help, yes, but previously it wasn't a technological disparity but rather they were tactically more proficient and competent. They excelled at spreading our troops and luring them into ambushes and traps where their better coordination and minor technological advantage proved valuable. The majority of the time we could beat them pretty fairly on head-on fights, but they don't fight like that, they play the Mongolian Horde game and spread out while run and regroup and generally fuck with conventional tactics.

As for the Raumen, acting this late to help them could give them the impression we're just trying to get a piece of the pie after they've done all the heavy work. But really, I wouldn't speculate too much on this.

Like-wise, i agree, and regardless of what they think -- their help in putting out the Hin'in is, in my mind, much more important than any race relations.

But I don't think like a Marianite... rather, I do. I think pragmatically, and I imagine the leaders of any theocracy are pragmatists as well... they just know which puppet to play.

 

[DarkUnderlord]

A few points I'd like to make:

a) Ramen are always going to be around to some extent - short of the Hiney engaging in systematic genocide.

b) Whatever happens, we're going to have bugs on our door-step, trying to get in through the fly-screen. It doesn't particulary matter whether they're red bugs or green bugs - they're still bugs.

c) Even if the Hiney's win, they will be economically ruined - unless we're somehow the only race that has to worry about silly things like that. And they'll still be fighting the Bro. Their economy can't be in good shape.

d) We have a chance to get a head-start and get our economy in over-drive, putting us in a very solid foundation for what will inevitably be the coming future conflict.

Think of the Ramen as like France. They surrender quickly and are defeated in record time - they get occupied for a few years but it's surprisingly easy to turn the tide back the other way and oust the German menace. However, in order to do that, we need to have our shit at home sorted.

We were rocking pretty well until the Commo decided to fuck shit up. Let's get into the position where that doesn't happen again and move as one united force of awe-inspiring awesome - rather than pushing ourselves further by siding with bugs - who didn't even want our help in the first place.

Let us also not forget the Ramen attacked our Ancestors. They are not our friends.

 

[BethesdaLove]

Let us also not forget the Ramen attacked our Ancestors. They are not our friends.

Its Raumen and they didn't. Liar.

 

[Brotherman Bill]

Assuming the war will end before damaging their industrial worlds, or that their industrial worlds aren't already damaged, assuming that the Hin'in will actually win. There's enough variables we can't predict.

My argument is based on all these assumptions, it is true. Your argument is based on the assumption that these assumptions aren't true.

So which is more likely? Let's go through the assumptions:

First, the hin'in have a significant empire. The fighting we have seen so far have been going on in occupied territory - thus, it is likely that their core worlds are intact.

Second, they have already won the conventional war in Raumen space. The Raumen are still fighting but they are mostly doing asymmetrical warfare. They aren't even able to protect their worlds from being burned. It is safe to say that they won't be able to free themselves without external help.

And if the BROS couldn't beat the hin'in without Raumen help, the BROS probably couldn't beat them with the Raumen uprising quelled.

So in short, it is likely that my assumptions are correct.