2. I Don't Think It's About 'Whales'
In mobile games, a whale is a compulsive person who spends enormous amounts of money on upgrades in a game. For a lot of titles, the business model is that most the profit comes from the 1% of players who are whales, while 90% play for cheap or free. (See also: Real life gambling.)
Note, however, that whales are generally spending their money on becoming more powerful in the game. Making upgrades unlock faster, and so on.
My question is: Do cosmetics work the same way? It's hard to find out, because the companies who make these games guard this information very closely.
My gut tells me no. I mean, sure, there are going to be obsessive collectors who buy EVERY. SINGLE. THING. But I bet most who buy cosmetics just buy fancy skins for their favorite gun every so often, to freshen up the experience and generate a few smiles. If you have a link to data that proves me wrong (or right?) I'd love to see it.
I actually really enjoyed studying Economics in school. Its theories are very, very interesting. Just, you know, with limits.
3. Basic Economics Don't Apply To Me, Alas
But back to my business, small indie games. In a rational, economics-based world, every dollar I increase the price of my game by decreases the number of customers. This means there is some ideal price that will maximize my revenue. This is called the
Demand Curve.
Alas, as so often happens, the beautiful, crystalline theories of economics smash against the hard reality of erratic human psychology.
Some people have a mental block against spending more for video games. Especially indie games. For a long time, the standard price for an indie game has been $15-20, so increasing it about that seems painful. Plus, it will probably be placed on sale soon. Or put in a Humble Bundle. Or given away for free on Epic.
$25 for a full-length game is cheap entertainment. People routinely spend more on other games for less. ($250 on Fortnite is TEN GAMES.) Yet, for an indie game, it feels expensive. Part of this is that, if you buy a game at full price and it's given away for free the next day, you will feel like an IDIOT. People HATE that.
I think that the customer's fear of feeling dumb is a major factor in how we must price our games.
Of course, nothing can be done about that. Since the market for games in entirely glutted and the most popular games are given away for free, I feel lucky that I can get anyone to give me any sales at any price.
So all I can do will charge a price that will, if I get the usual number of sales, keep me in business. And that is how it will be for all of us from now on, forever.
But I Like To Be Sunny
A large number of the developers who deserve who have success end up getting success. I am very lucky to have my job. The games industry is still growing.
But it's a new industry. How best to price a game was still being worked out a year ago, and, now that the global economic system is all topsy-turvy, we'll have to figure out everything out again.
Thank you for humoring me as I make guesses about where we go from her. If I'm half wrong, at least I'm also half right.