Yeah, AoE2 is still so alive and kicking that there's no chance 4 can dethrone it.
If anything, 4 might funnel more newbies into AoE2 in the long run lmao.
I agree that 4 won't dethrone 2 but people who played 4 as their first Age game won't be able to easily pick up any of the older ones. From the looks of it 4 is much less micro intensive and economy management is extremely simplified. Mangudai in the original AoC used to be micro-able to an insane amount of skill and even after being nerfed in HD and DE, still offer a capability of being able to take down much more than their cost in units if microed well. In AoE4, they just fire automatically, and you just need to move them (though that is their special feature, it is not as nuanced as in AoC/2 where fast firing was there but the player had to have the skill to use it).
Can anyone who played verified if there is boar luring? Or being able to chase deer into your mill? Or dodging mangonnel shots? Those were some common micro-requiring situations in AoE2.
Also, are monks still capable of converting to the level of cheesiness? Most people somehow don't have a problem with it but its one of my biggest bug bears (along with Chinese and Vikings being weak as fuck to Siege Onagers).