So Fallout, along with some other IPs, are the thematic inspiration for TOW, ok...what does that have to do with the current discussion about the open vs hub world mechanics?
Cain thought hub and spoke would improve the narrative control...it did not, and that excuse, again, sounds like cope. He instead ended up with a game with much looser narrative control than dedicated linear campaigns like Halo:CE, and no immersion or world building type environmental narrative like FNV. TOW is and was widely panned as mediocre, and for good reason; it is the worst rather than the best of both worlds. It absolutely tried to be a similar genre to Fallout NV, and failed hard for, among other reasons, its video-gamey hub world. The kind of emergent, difficult to quantify,
je ne sais quoi of immersive open world games is fully dependent on having an actual open world. As soon as that is abandoned, you are now competing with other linear or quasi-linear experiences with better gameplay and graphics, tighter narratives, and more in depth focus on their specific genre (first person shooters, immersive sims, etc...). TOW sucked in large part because it wasn't an open world, and Avowed will suck for the same reason.
Ok, so what's the excuse then?
No one can go from 0 to Skyrim. You need to build up the codebase, which means starting with a scope comparable to Morrowind. They have opted to have mini-open areas instead of confining the world to one Morrowind-sized space which only feels as large as it is because even the running speed is a slow crawl (Oblivion's walking speed is faster than Morrowind's run). TES games are also the way they are because they neglect the things Obsidian focuses on in favor of their hiking gameplay. Obsidian abandoning what they're known for to make an awkward Beth-clone would be daft.
Morrowind was made by like thirty people, about a dozen of whom were programmers, and released in 2002, in an engine they had not used for their previous games, and has a better and more believable and more open world than TOW, a game released in 2019 by more than 50 people in a much more advanced engine that already had open world tools out of the box. Literally no excuse.
https://en.uesp.net/wiki/Morrowind:Development_Team
You can get fast run speed within a few hours of starting a new Morrowind playthrough, and can leap and fly across the map within a few days of starting, and yet the world still feels large, alive, and real because it is dense with content and genuinely open.
How would it be Obsidian abandoning what they are known for to make an open world game like FNV, the title they are known for?