I am actually rather sad about BG3 release for a wrong reason.
The standart Larian set means we won't see a decent RPG for a long time, as other studios will reassess their standing and developement due to inevitable comparison with BG3.
There is also risk of devolving into a Paradox state - where only they develop Grand Strategies that sell in sufficient numbers and others simply cannot enter the competition due to huge gap in experience and resources available.
If Larian will "monopolize" RPG genre, that could result and magnificent RPGs of similar quality in cherished settings, like Waterdeep or Nevewinter Nights, Eye of the Beholder even or Menzoberranzan (marketed as a porn product of course) but with risks of monopoly and lack of competition corrupting them.
In case of RPG releases we have maybe Rogue Trader upcoming, and it is not a "heavy RPG", more like a tactical combat with RPG elements and dialogues. Other than that - Dreadwolf is being held for years on life support and BG3 release is cutting wires one by one.
Very unlikely. RPGs, even braindead simple ones like Skyrim, are still too niche to ever be captured by a single company like the FIFA games for EA or Call of Duty for whoever the fuck makes them now. Unless vast swaths of society suddenly grow a taste for (even shallow) stat growths, you will never see RPGs get taken over by a single dev and still be profitable for very long.
More likely that this is Larian's "Oblivion Moment". They made an ultra mega hit that puts them in the upper brass of RPGs, alongside Bethesda. Their games will be taken more seriously.
And ya know what happened the last time an upstart European company flew too close to the sun?
Cyberpunk 2077...
Really? Grand stretegy games were a niche games as well and were released a decade ago on regular basis...until certain company monopolized the market. It didn't happen overnight or after a single release but thye gradually pushed away not only competition but DESIRE to compete with them.
Who developes major RPGs today?
- CD Project Red with Witcher and Cyberpunk series - both have serious problems as you cannot live by Witcher 3 roaring success alone.
- Bioware, with Mass Effect and Dragon Age - no comment, a dying project from a dying studio, only waiting for a reason to be closed forever.
- Owlcat is grabbing a market share with they stellar performance on Pathfinder and there are high hopes for Rogue Trader, but it is obvious it won'tbe on par with BG3.
- Bethesda is withering with their Fallout franchize, Starfield is an unknows entity, and TES have a long developement cycle with unknown results
- Obsidian proved to be a mediocre team of developers creating mediocre games - PoE - led them to selling their butts to MS, Wasteland 3 - a failure after W2 somewhat successful launch.
- Shadowrun - let's face it - it was a mediocre indie game with heavy stat and skill cheks presence that saved it.
- VTM 2 is stuck in developement hell...and creative hell...and design hell...it is in hell, obviously.
- Gothic sequels - dead in developement.
and...well, that's it.
Major developers are atrociously few and big projects are almost absent. Meanin Larian can grab Waterdeep and Neverwinter Night settings and just make another games on BG3 engine and mechanics and people will be super happly to buy and play them.