Battletech earned $1,255,693 in its first 3 days.
Here's the picture I like to use to demonstrate the different spreads during a campaign:
We have multiple types of campaign here. We have front-loaded ones like Bard's Tale IV and Yooka-Laylee, campaigns with the more traditional Kickstarter behaviour like Mighty No.9*, and balanced ones like Project Eternity and Bloodstained.
Assuming a worst case scenario, it'd be similar to Bard's Tale IV. That means the $1,255,693 would be 66% of the total funding and in the end it'd reach $1,902,565.
More simulations:
60%: $2,092,821
55%: $2,283,078 (Close to Torment levels)
50%: $2,511,386 (Shenmue III)
45%: $2,790,428
40%: $3,139,232
35%: $3,587,694 (Project Eternity)
*Mighty No.9 technically had more funding in its first 3 days than in the chart above, mostly because it was launched in a Japan, so the timezone difference made the
first 3 days more like 3.5.
It says 30% above, but in reality it was 36% at least.
The numbers above mean Battletech's first 3 days cannot be more than 50% of total funding, otherwise it won't reach its last stretch goal. However,
it is very important to keep in mind that this is depends on the behaviour during the campaign.
A smaller percentage in the first 3 days does not mean more money.
Case in point: Torment had 53% in its first 3 days and Eternity had 35%. Torment ended up making more money, but in the end it was pretty close ($4 million x $4.2 million).
This data is only useful if you have a type of campaign in mind, and it's worth keeping the actual money in mind as well.
Another very important aspect of this campaign is that it's the first big project of its genre to hit Kickstarter. This means the audience is different. The context and the expectations of fans can be compared to CRPG fans in some ways, but it's not the same thing.
Many important aspects are unique or very different, however:
- Unlike Eternity and TToN, which are brand new projects that pay homage to beloved ones, BattleTech is a 30yo franchise that appeals to the wargaming audience.
- The game will be turn-based. The only other big turn-based KS games are Wasteland 2 and TToN, but backers didn't know Torment was going to be turn-based, and some (myself included) even resent it for it.
- Awareness is a very important factor, and this KS was announced well in advance by HBS.
A lot of people have been comparing the campaign to TToN and Eternity regardless, so I went with a direct comparison to Torment because Eternity's campaign was very unusual and in a very different time for KS games. Torment was more front-loaded because it was after DFA, WL2 and shortly after Eternity, so the campaign was heavily exposed right off the bat.
This is the key here:
- This highlights a problem with the lack of tiers in the campaign. Torment had 27% of its funding in ranges that Battletech does not cover at all.
- BattleTech has a higher percentage of $125-275 backers, but Torment made $322k in the $350-750. It's a considerable amount of money.
- BT also has a higher % of $1000+ backers, but I'd say that's because it's early in the campaign and the big donors pledged earlier. The percentage will only go down, specially considering these rewards are limited in the first place.
- Torment had fewer $1-50 backers. If BT had the same ratio, it'd be at $1,356,401 rather than the $1,253,669 (without shipping) it had when I gathered the data. Now the opposite: if Torment had BT's ratio, it would've earned $3,649,813 instead of $3,949,042. That's an 8.1% increase by making the $1-50 backers upgrade their pledges, but they need more options in order to do that. It makes a big difference in the end.
- BattleTech average pledge per backer is currently $65. It was $74 in the first day. This reinforces the scenario that the big donors got wind of the campaign very early and pledged right away.
- $65 is still very high. Torment's average was $56, for example. HBS has to give backers more options in order to keep it that high, and having digital tiers in the $100+ range is a must, but I'll get there in a bit.
Thanks to user Lime for asking HBS about new tiers:
>>will there be new tiers?
Mitch: Thanks for posting that article. Someone passed it around the office when it came out. The trick is the balancing act - yes, you can make more money but at what cost? I can stop some members of the BattleTech pre-production team and brainstorm more reward levels and how we’d fulfil them but that would take away from their prototyping time. I’d step away from the comments page, too.
Then, if we decided to do more stuff, I’d have to eventually pull some of them away from making the game to make the stuff.
That’s not to say, “forget it”. We’re totally listening, want to run a great Kickstarter, and want to do a great job for our Backers and the game. But it’s a balance and I want you to know the truth.
It's a valid concern, of course. How much time can they spend brainstorming new rewards and stuff instead of working on the game's pre-production? Does the extra funding compensate the man-hours spent on it? Honestly, I think it does, and I'm not suggesting I know more about schedules and game development than they do, it's just that the things they could add don't require a lot of brainstorming at all.
The lack of tiers is not the only problem, by the way. Both the $125 and $275 (and all of the $1000+ as well) include only physical goods as extra rewards. This means that if you want to upgrade your $50 pledge, you have to more than double your money up to $125
plus shipping. It's even worse if you're an international customer, in which case the taxes and international shipping could make it extremely expensive, and for a lot of people, simply not worth it.
For instance: HBS are well known for the Shadowrun series already. Why not include a "HBS tier" where you get copies of the Shadowrun games? It's not the same genre or IP, but they're pretty good games, and it's inherently optional anyway.
Maybe a cross-promotion reward as well? Eternity and Torment had tiers with copies of WL2, for example.
BattleTech has the original tabletop games and more than a hundred books out there. I don't know what's the relationship/deal with Catalyst, but that's something that would benefit both. Books as digital rewards and lots of physical rewards to add as well.
Golem Arcana is another game by HBS that could be add as both physical and digital rewards/add-ons.
Also, at least one digital tier with more copies of the game is very easy to add and a no-brainer, if you ask me.
In regard to stretch goals, can't say much because they haven't been revealed yet, but I think the lack of mod tools is a mistake. It did wonders to Shadowrun games and it's a great addition to any game. It adds longevity, word of mouth, and allows fans to keep creating new content for the game. It's even more important here IMO, assuming it reaches the PVP MP goal.
