That makes no sense. On average, the amount of low-cost minions you draw in the first X turns will be proportional to how many of them you have in your deck. There's no reason for the chance to win a joust to significantly increase or decrease over time. At most, some decks mulliganing for high-cost cards might make a slight difference, but Handlock is the only deck currently played that does this - everyone else wants low-cost cards in their opening hand. And for Handlock, it's rarely correct to keep a Molten Giant, keeping Mountain Giants vs control (and some midrange) decks would be way more frequent.
It doesn't increase over time - it increases at the mulligan (or decreases), pretty much like you said.
If X-deck get their minions to play on curve, they've dramatically increased their odds of winning the Joust vs. a face-deck.
You get
two chances to land that curve. Comparing decks straight across the board makes no sense because it doesn't account for
when these minions are being played. You can't equivocate 20 low-cost huntard minions with 4 low-cost minions in another deck, because the player in the latter deck will be trying to put them
in their hand at the start and
if that happens - which again, they have
two shots at - then their odds for winning the Joust skyrockets well beyond what some baseline percentages would show. At the same time, Handlock has many large minions, but the player will be taking mulligans to have them in hand (I'm only going off of what legendary players do and show in their deck guides). So at a glance you could say, wow, the Warlock deck has an X-% chance to win those Jousts, except a large chunk of that percentage is actually lost in the player's attempt to put their biggest 'jousters'
in hand.
Basically, I think the whole Jousting mechanic is going to bean facedecks upside the head and line-to-line comparisons between decks does not account for what minions each player wants in their starting hand. As the reddit post says:
This is assuming both players have their entire deck unused. I think the Joust cards will be meh against a lot of decks, particularly since tying does nothing for you, but I really do think they will be smashing facedecks pretty badly and that the percentages vs. those decks are much worse (or better?) than they appear.
