I'm going to take a bit of a leap of logic, and hypothesise how the disasters of our bad luck will work out narratively. Large events/storyarcs we become entangled in will be set against us from the start, by that I mean if we aren't proactive enough, forces will align to screw us over badly. We haven't really encountered anything particularly exemplar of this yet, so far our bad luck hasn't gone beyond horses dying and bad weather, well, that and bandits being dicks, and a kerfuffle at a minor school. I think our bad luck goes beyond that though, I think wherever we go, people will conspire against us, and involve us in their schemes, people that we haven't even met or heard of. Now that we have a name and a reputation, people will use us in their plans, which will usually involve screwing us over badly. I think we're going to get the first example of this here at the tournament ( Fairly obvious now with the masked figures, I know).
Unless we do something particularly noteworthy to upset their plans, we will come out of this worse off than we entered. I don't know what to do right now with the current choice, but if we get a chance to upset the schemes of our puppet-masters, we need to leap at it if we want to have any chance of a good outcome. I think treave will offer us a lifeline for really major disasters, but the choice will not always be recognisable, and a seemingly innocuous choice could spell our doom. (Like in Epic, where we didn't choose to go to Greece after Marduk had launched his invasion, before treave in his mercy offered us an out)
Yes, so far our bad luck has not actually hindered us too badly. We ended up rescuing Cao'er, saving Yao, and even developing a good relationship with the Abbess. And we're being personally trained by one of the Five Great Pugilists. All in all, not bad for someone considered to be terminally unlucky.
So how do you suggest not becoming the victim of this scheme at hand? I believe that we had made the right choice in pursuing the impostor instead of focusing on Yiling, and I also believe that we made the correct choice in having Cao'er observe the Nameless vs Shapeless match to give us a lead on the masked fighters here. Given the choice between thwarting the conspiracy against us and winning the tournament, the choice is extremely easy for me: we
must stop what these people are planning and we have to find out how Nameless, Shapeless and Faceless fit into this. If this means forfeiting the tournament, then so be it.
So do you think it would be a good idea to talk to Shapeless before he leaves? We would be talking to him knowing who his superior is, and knowing that neither of them are Han. However, while this is a start, we don't know where they reside or what their purpose is. If we see a guy on the street who isn't Han, there's still a very good chance it would be some innocent traveler who made his way here. It simply isn't enough to go on, and we need more. I'm thinking of flopping to B4 based on that.
That being said, I think we haven't been ignorant of the situation and we've taken a pretty proactive stance on the conspiracy, which is good. The question is whether that's enough given that we still don't have a rock-solid lead yet.
And that ended up turning Greece into a wasteland.
Well, it's still early days... we're only on chapter two.
We must first create before we can destroy.
Well, that's the thing, we came in late to the party. By the time we had arrived, Marduk had a piece of Vajra in his possession after he had slain Hephaestus. If we had come earlier and taken that piece before he had managed to secure it, or we had an awareness of Zeus' mastery of Vajra, powers of teleportation, and a sense of his personality, we may not have fucked up as badly.
Really, going for Egypt instead of going where the actual war was taking place put us in that bad position to begin with. Of course, zapping Marduk was stupid because it was too good to be true, but all the other stuff I mentioned certainly didn't help matters much.