Hooookay. Guys, I think I have some new and useful thoughts on how the murder happened. I haven't DISCUSS!'d in quite a while but I think this one bears reading and discussing. Hear me out.
Calling:
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First, a compilation of what we know:
Before the Murder:
-Chief Jiang leaves restaurant.
-Restaurant brawl begins during xu hour. Fu Xia is entangled with monks. Xiaofang watches.
-Fu Xia leaves restaurant.
-Xiaofang leaves restaurant.
-The restaurant brawl ends at end of xu hour. Xi Mukang (Jinkong Sect) is present.
-Chief Jiang asks Xiaofang to meet him at the entrance at start of hai hour.
-Chief Jiang speaks with Du Yao from the end of xu hour to receive orders. They discuss the Jinkong Sect and the Manual. Chief Jiang believes Du Yao is not involved in the theft, but did intuit some fact during their conversation. Du Yao asks Chief Jiang to return the next day.
-Chief Jiang leaves Du Yao around middle of hai hour. He spots Xiaofang missing. He "felt that something was wrong", and snuck back into the study.
-(A man matching the description of) Xi Mukang is present at mansion during hai hour.
The Murder:
-Chief Jiang senses and hears a small tussle in the study.
-
As Chief Jiang enters, Du Yao screams and falls. MIB is present.
-Chief Jiang draws blood from MIB, who leaps out window and escapes.
-Du Yao is hit by (probably) a kick on the right arm.
-Du Yao is stabbed (by a short sword very much like the constables')
below the left collarbone, and is not a killing blow.
-Du Yao is hit by three ice needles on the side of the neck, not on any pressure points, but nevertheless lethal.
-All injuries, and Du Yao's death, occur in the middle of hai hour.
After the Murder:
-Chief Jiang is found by Du Yao's body, his short sword in hand, by Miss Du.
-
[Fu Xia says] Xi Mukang (or his lookalike) is spotted running across the courtyard and leaping over a wall during hai hour. [Lady Suien says] the footprints in the courtyard go from Du Yao's study to the wall, and show an above-average qinggong skill man carrying an injury from a struggle with Du Yao.
-After the murder (after middle of the hai hour), homeless man spots
Xiaofang arguing and fighting with MIB (man in black), who (probably) hits Xiaofang with ice needles.
-At the very beginning of zi hour, Xiaofang's body is found to have disappeared.
-Few days later, Xiaofang is discovered in a rundown sickhouse, poisoned.
Other Factors:
-Miss Du and Qilin believe Du Yao's murderer did not have the city's best interests at heart.
-Ice needles are Xueguizi technique, contain fast-acting poison, definitely not from the central plains, carrying traces of a cold yin qi, eliciting different reactions from different victims. Practitioners can form needles instantly, but amateurs cannot hold it for long.
The needle 'could' freeze poison in liquid form, or dip a formed needle in poison.
-Chief Jiang first says he asked Xiaofang to meet him for orders, but is evasive about what those orders were, does suspect Xiaofang, and when he was not present, immediately suspected something was wrong, which led him somehow to return to Du Yao's study.
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Now for analysis. I am leaving aside any question of
certain knowledge. I am leaving aside any question of
motivation, unless it is obvious. I am also leaving aside any explanation that pulls too much in from facts that we do not know from the above summary. I am trying as much as possible to work with what we have above then seeing what is likely and unlikely.
Some Things We Can Estimate:
The murder itself happens before Chief Jiang can interfere at all (he says he hears a small tussle, and the
moment he enters, Du Yao screams and falls, likely a result of the fast-acting poison needles). The murder
may not have been planned, because instead of using such a powerful weapon immediately, the assailant tussles with Du Yao, wounding him with a kick and a stab of the sword. The location of the stab (below left collarbone) suggests that he was going for the kill, because you wouldn't stab someone there unless you were aiming for their head/neck. In other words,
the assailant's original plan was probably to kill Du Yao with a sword - a constable's sword, or a good copy of it - and thereby frame the constabulary - or even Chief Jiang personally, given the timing of the kill. If Jiang never returned, Du Yao's body would ultimately have been found, with Chief Jiang the last known man in the room. Clearly, what happened is that Du Yao resisted, and/or the assailant noticed Jiang's entrance, and panicking, pulled out the backup plan of the needles. He then receives injuries from Chief Jiang, and has to escape ASAP.
Ice needles would have had to be prepared beforehand,
or there would be a limited supply of them. This is evidenced by the fact that they can only be poisonous if they freeze existing liquid poison,
or dip a formed needle in poison (source: Xuezi). Hence, the assailant either is an expert who fashioned the needles before the attack and dipped them,
or carried a vial of poison from which to quickly form the needles. This might explain why MIB did not just use the needles on Chief Jiang, either (since if he raised the alarm himself before being found by Miss Du, he could have then pointed to MIB as prime suspect). Unfortunately, this doesn't tell us for sure whether the assailant is an expert practitioner.
If we now assume that the original plan was to frame constables/Jiang, and that their plan went partly astray (Jiang discovered the MIB, the kill had to happen differently, MIB was wounded). The next question is why/how MIB met Xiaofang and what happened there. One thing we can immediately presume is that
Xiaofang must know MIB - otherwise, why would they
argue before fighting (source: homeless man)? That means only one of two reasonable possibilities. Either Xiaofang is an accomplice, or Xiaofang is not but recognised the person (e.g. Fu Xia, or even Xi Mukang). If he is an accomplice, then they may have disputed the reward, or the fact that it went awry, etc. However, I find this unlikely. If they were accomplices, why are they meeting in the middle of the street, instead of a designated safehouse / spot? Whether Xiaofang wanted to help the assailant or betray him, this would make the most sense. Therefore, it seems most likely that
Xiaofang met the assailant = MIB, who is someone Xiaofang can recognise, rather than being a completely random person.
There is one other strange fact that I think is important. The assailant was dressed in black and concealed. Well, he must have covered his face up too and dressed generally for anonymity - why would you do otherwise when going on a stealth mission? Even if the assailant didn't originally intend to kill Du Yao, this is only sensible. Chief Jiang saw enough of the man to draw blood, but could tell us nothing of his identity. This means that MIB was very well disguised. So, that raises two questions. Firstly, I suggested above that Xiaofang recognised MIB. How could he, if he was disguised? So, again
, Xiaofang must know that person quite very well - either because he is an accomplice, or because he has been investigating and tailing the assailant, or because the assailant is someone he knows very well anyway. Secondly, the only clue we have as to the MIB's identity is the testimony that someone matching the description of Xi Mukang, at least a Jinkong Sect member, was spotted leaping over the wall. But who does this come from?
Fu Xia. This is the one part of our data which doesn't make sense; why would you dress as a Jinkong Sect member? Perhaps to frame the Sect. But why would you dress as a Sect member, and then hit Du Yao with a constabulary sword? The only explanation would be that it was a member of the constabulary who wanted to frame the Sect. But this still doesn't make sense. If you are planning a murder, you surely have time and resources to get a different fucking sword when you are in a
city of crime. Especially if you have the time to fashion a disguise. No, the sword and the sect clothing both are surely means of obscuring the assailant's true identity.
One plausible explanation is that Fu Xia gave us false testimony. He is the only one that ever mentions the Jinkong Sect in all of our evidence. He gets this from interrogating servants, but clearly not servants he was speaking to together with Lingshu and Yifang, for he presents it as "haha I did a good job and got unique info!". Another plausible explanation was that the assailant had prepared both Jinkong disguise and constabulary sword in a double obfuscation. In that case, however, it is strange that Chief Jiang saw enough of MIB to draw blood but not notice the Jinkong Sect uniform.
Who Could Have Done It?
Chief Jiang: almost certainly not. Firstly, MIB as a separate entity certainly exists. It is improbable that Jiang was stupid enough to kill Du Yao after his meeting, and hang around, if MIB is an accomplice. It is improbable that MIB is working against Jiang
and working also to kill Du Yao. It is improbable that MIB had snuck in specifically to stop Jiang. There are just too many improbabilities and questions.
Xiaofang: unlikely. He could equally have reached the mansion, he also has no alibi during the murder period, he could equally have been sponsored with needles, etc. If this is true, then he must have had an accomplice, the MIB, who he fought with later and was incarcerated by. Furthermore, Xiaofang could not have been the MIB which fled from the study - if so, wouldn't he still be dressed in black until he could reach a safe location? Even if Xiaofang is an accomplice, then, he is not the murderer himself.
Man X: maybe. Everything becomes easier with Mysterious Man X because he has all the time and resources in the world to pull this off. However, to me the big thing ruling this out is the Xiaofang aspect; Xiaofang probably
recognised the MIB, which is why they argued before fighting straight away. Sure, it could be Random Man X that Xiaofang knows randomly, but narratively speaking, it seems improbable that treave would set up the clues this way. So, sure, Man X is possible, but I don't believe that is the best answer we have.
Xi Mukang: maybe. He could easily have left the restaurant just before the middle of the
hai hour, as soon as Jing left the restaurant (he was there until then). It would explain the presence of the Sect members. He would have the
qinggong, and could have again got the needles from a sponsor. He could have forged a short sword similar to the constables' - it's not like their sword is some unique proprietary shape, and given that this murder would have been carefully planned whoever was the murderer, if they had the resources to prepare those needles techniques, I assume they would have researched the sword to frame the constables, as well. Xiaofang, who was sitting and observing quite carefully the restaurant brawl, may have remembered Mukang. However, several factors make Xi Mukang less and less likely. (1) It makes more sense to suspect someone with a constables' sword rather than someone who has to forge one. (2) The assailant was dressed in black, and Jiang himself did not recognise his identity; meaning his face would have been covered. How would Xiaofang recognise him?
Fu Xia: likely. He definitely left the restaurant by end of
xu hour when brawl ended, giving him time to reach the mansion. He has a constable's sword. He could have learnt the needles from whoever is sponsoring him. He would possess the
qinggong to jump the wall. Given the eunuch spy situation, Xiaofang could have been Fu Xia's accomplice, or, more likely, could have been keeping an eye on the suspicious Fu Xia, and now chases him down / confronts him; Xiaofang was missing for Jiang's rendezvous because of this. The fact that Xiaofang first argued with MIB before fighting him suggests that Xiaofang knew MIB; this makes sense if it is Fu Xia. I do not think there is any concrete proof that incriminates anybody. Even if everything I say is right, there is no hard proof, unless Xiaofang wakes up and can name his MIB assailant - then, the case becomes significantly stronger.
But out of the things we do know, he seems the most suspicious.
Remaining Problems
There are also several unanswered questions. Why did Chief Jiang call Xiaofang to the mansion? What did he suspect when he found Xiaofang gone, that he would return to Du Yao's study, rather than return to the restaurant or our lodgings to find the rest of us? Well, Chief Jiang may have suspected Xiaofang to have designs on Du Yao's person - though it seems rather out of the blue to me. However, this can't worry us at the moment, because we are not going to find anything out on this front that will lead us to one person or another.
Another question is where the assailant, whoever it was, got the ice needles and the poison from; but again, it seems clear that if the assailant was somebody we know, they could not have procured it from their immediate environment. It seems whoever is the murderer, they had some sponsors, supporters, masters, in the shadows who could supply them. Well, in the absence of any clear link between any particular person and such factions, it doesn't sway us to one person or another.
The other question is why and how Xiaofang's body disappeared,
not immediately, but soon after. My best guess is that because the MIB was injured by Du Yao, and had fought again with Xiaofang (which may or may not have incurred further injuries), he first needed to retreat ASAP to recover - and once he had done first aid, he realised how dangerous it was to leave Xiaofang, and retrieved him. This doesn't solve the problem of why MIB then didn't kill Xiaofang altogether, or why whoever found Xiaofang, if not MIB, gave him to the sickhouse. But again, I don't think these questions or the MIB's behaviour would change whether it was Fu Xia, Xi Mukang, or whoever.
Conclusion
Based on what things we know for sure, I tried to isolate things we can probably be quite sure of. On that basis I went through each suspect, and my belief is that if we have to make the call now,
Fu Xia appears the most suspicious, and Chief Jiang appears almost certainly innocent.
This rules A out for me, and makes me lean towards C - though, even if you all agree with my analysis, it's still a different question as to how we should vote. I am going to go ahead and say
C > B for now, however.