Development Info South Park: The Stick of Truth delayed

[J_C]

He's maybe the only fully-grown adult at Obsidian now; and he's distanced himself from the SP:TSOT, and is working on Eternity. If anyone can whip Obshitian into professionalism and adulthood, it's him.

Watch out not to cut yourself.

 

[Semper]

South Park's delayed, but I don't think it means more money for Obsidian due to THQ's bad financial state.

they're paid by trey and matt, who also made a deal with thq for publishing their game. thq and obsidian are in no contact for developing reasons.

 

[FeelTheRads]

In before

I LOVE THE STICK OF TRUTH THIS MUCH

 

[Vault Dweller]

Semper

Source?

 

[DarkUnderlord]

After KS takes their cut and the cost of merchandise is subtracted, they'll probably have 2.6-2.8 mil.

That sounds a bit too low to me.

This was posted on the Codex (not sure where the info came from, but the numbers look reasonable):

Double Fine: $3,446,371
After fees and failed transactions: $3,099,660.
Money Spent on rewards: $473,231
Documentary budget: $393,964
Final game budget: $2,232,465

It's well-known that Double Fine spent way too much on goodies. Obsidian was stingier about those. Also, that documentary.

"Includes [...] Making of Project Eternity Documentary (streaming)."

P:E raised $3,986,929 in KickStarter.
- If we assume a 10% fees and failed transaction rate as with Double Fine, subtract $400,000
+ PayPal donations were about $200k or so I believe.

I don't think it would be unreasonable to suggest they have somewhere around the $3.5 million mark. But we also have to spend that money creating the physical copies that were ordered. Our goodies include:
- $65, The boxed copy will include a DVD version of the game and a printed manual (3,818)
- $100, Box version + T-Shirt (1,041)
- $140, Collector's Edition Box, Cloth Map, Cloth Patch, Mouse Pad, T-Shirt, Making of Project Eternity Documentary (DVD/Blu-ray). (3,496)
- $165, Project Eternity's First Expansion (just noting they intend to deliver an expansion as well, not just the original game).
- $250, Everything in $140 tier + full color printed collector's book, elite cloth patch (1,746)
- $350, Everything in $250 tier + some stuff it looks like they have lying around the offce (30)
- $500, Collector's Edition Box (cloth map, elite cloth patch, and printed manual included), Full Colour Hard Cover Collector's Book, T-Shirt (367)
- $750, $500 tier + physical print of troll (29)
- $1,000+, $500 tier (114 + 49 + 7 + 13)

That turns into:

Standard Game Boxes + DVD's: 4,859
Collector's Boxes + DVD's: 5,851
Printed Manuals: 10,710
T-Shirts: 6,892
Cloth Maps: 5,851
Cloth Patches: 5,851
Elite Cloth Patches: 2,355
Mouse Pads: 5,851
Documentary DVD: 5,851
Full Colour Collector's Book: 1,776
Hard-Cover Collector's Book: 579
Prints (Portraits and Trolls): 36​

56,462 individual items that need to be printed. Now it's quite likely Obsidian will need a publishing deal to sell the game anyway, so it's quite possible any funds for the above could be a part of that deal. IE: They'll likely be making a lot more than just 10,000 physical copies. Especially for a game that might sell anywhere from 100,000 to 1,000,000 copies. At an estimate of about $5 per item though, we're potentially looking at $300,000 on "goodies".

That leaves us with about $3.2M. Over an 18 month development time-frame, that works out to about $175,000 per month.

Now we need to cover:
- Staff
- Overheads
- Office space (so the staff have somewhere to work)

According to GamaSutra, average wages in the game development industry are around the $75,000 per annum mark. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that's a tad expensive for Obsidian. So let's halve that and then add 20% overheads and we end up with $45,000. We'll call that our average cost of an Obsidian employee. On a monthly basis, it becomes $3,750.

At this point, our straight up budget of $3.2M / $3,750 = 853 months of paid staff / 18 month development time-frame = 47 people. This would be the "biggest" team Project: Eternity could afford. Those 47 people need to work somewhere though... And they need computers and electricity and someone needs to be doing the accounts so that they get paid and...

Taking a look at office space in Irvine, California we find we can get a lovely building with 50 car parks (plenty for our 40+ employees) for $1.19 per square foot per month. Let's take the full 12,400 square feet and we get a rental bill of $12,401.19 per month - or about 3.3 employees.

If we add on water, electricity and other things at half that, then our office expenses work out to about 5 less employees. At least one of those has to be a receptionist / administration, and another one of those has to be an accountant / book-keeper. That takes us down to 40 "Game Developers" at an average salary cost of $3,750 per month. Of course, if we're paying the average industry rate then that would be about 20 "Game Developers".

So if Obsidian have anymore employees than that, they're fucked. If they're paying more per month for those employees, they're fucked and if they take longer than 18 months, they're fucked.

Doing this with the original $1M budget is fun too.

I do note Obsidian Entertainment have a bunch of job listings on glassdoor. 10 jobs looking for "mid-senior" developers and an intern. According to the review, pros include "Chris Avellone is awesome to work with" while cons include "Obsidian's reliance on publisher funding dampens the potential of all their talented employees, and makes it feels like they are one cancelled project away from utter collapse."

EDIT: The short version is that they'll need a publishing deal about 12 months into development and that publisher will need to kick in about as much as the KickStarter raised.

 

[IDtenT]

DarkUnderlord, you have far too much free time.

 

[Infinitron]

DarkUnderlord
We already know Project Eternity will have a team of 20~ people.

 

[Semper]

Source?

It’s all about… because that game is being written by Matt [Stone] and Trey [Parker]… some of the production process ebbs and flows with their schedule. They are in the middle of a season right now, and as soon as they are done, they get back to the game [...] Matt and Trey won’t ship until it’s their vision of this ultimate role playing game [...] Again, this was their vision. this game came to us. Matt and Trey wanted to do a great game. They had even contracted Obsidian themselves before we came in and, I believe, there was work going on for about a year. They were looking for a publisher to get it involved and pick it up and drive it the rest of the way.

source

admittedly the last part sounds like that thq's behind the wheels now, but i do believe that i read somewhere that thq only made a deal to publish the game and that obsidian's still payed by matt/trey (original contract they signed).

 

[xilo3z]

THQ announced South Park: The Stick of Truth has been delayed. The game was originally scheduled for release on March 5, 2013. The game has been pushed to early fiscal 2014. THQ's 2014 fiscal year begins April 2013 and ends March 2014.

[Update: THQ said the title has been delayed 2 months]

From Obsidian forums

Yeah, come on bros, it took two pages of arguing to figure out fiscal years... Every company declares their own fiscal year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=THQI+Key+Statistics

On there - "Fiscal Year Ends". Activision's is December 30, EA's is March 31st. All manipulated/chosen so they can match up their product life cycles to their years to maximize numbers. With their stock falling 50% after earnings reports today they have to do whatever they can to make sure that future growth looks good, as that's what drives share prices up. Growth = capital gains which everyone wants, stock growth comes from increase of EPS/belief of future EPS growth.

With such a dismal result, expect them to throw in the towel and push things around this entire year just on the basis of increasing the future growth estimates. The stock will actually rise a bit due to a short squeeze from all the shorts (25% short float) closing their position, then another fall for THQ, and then stabilize. Whats funny is all the "gamerz blogz" saying that THQ's stock is falling because of these delays, when in fact its falling because they pretty much have literally no cash to do anything and have been meeting with investment banks (mainly CenterView) to save the company. THQ is planning on a bailout from an investment bank to get them through the year, then an onslaught of titles for the year after to beat every future growth estimate to propel their shares back up. Don't count it.

 

[l3loodAngel]

no, iirc it starts October exactly like you thought

There is no legal requirement for starting or ending your fiscal year. It can be at the end of any quarter, but some companies go with the "crowd".

 

[Roguey]

At least there's Tim Cain-- and as senior programmer no less. He's maybe the only fully-grown adult at Obsidian now; and he's distanced himself from the SP:TSOT, and is working on Eternity. If anyone can whip Obshitian into professionalism and adulthood, it's him.

You think the former CEO of a failed company that released three overambitious absurdly buggy games is going to whip Obsidian into shape.

...

 

[Kane]

What good is planning when your publisher is as capricious as SEGA? Second example: Aliens RPG cancelled when Feargus thought it was almost ready to go out the door by SEGA.

I still don't understand why OE decided to lie with SEGA, especially after they already transmitted STD the first time around. They must've been pretty desperate.

 

[Kane]

Sega only demanded gameplay changes, the decision to scrap Mitsoda's script was all Avellone's.

Mitsoda vs. Avellone, enemies 4 lyfe

 

[LeStryfe79]

Who is even looking forward to this? It's like a decade too late. May as well make a Simpsons RPG.

Paper Mario came out 19 years after Donkey Kong. What's your point? I think South Park still compares rather favorably with the newer animated comedies out there. Honestly, if I'd never seen it before, I would have thought South Park was a higher end Adult Swim cartoon. In my opinion, most of the Fox programs, including Seth Macfarlane's shows have aged far worse. Furthermore, the South Park universe is set up remarkably well for this sort of game, unlike The Simpsons, where everything is more predefined.

On the other hand, Futurama could have been home to a magnificent RPG.

Also, this guy is always wrong, despite the fact that I love his games: http://zeboyd.com/2012/11/06/why-south-park-wont-save-thq/

 

[Gruia]

i want all my games delayed .. maybe not the ones from Japan, as those guys are like geniuses.

 

[J_C]

DarkUnderlord
Why are you taking the office rent, electricity and water bills into account? Those are fixed cost for the company, since they have their office with infrastructure. They have people working in there regardless of PE. I think this cost is covered by the company's other revenues, not from PE's kickstarter. It's not like they have to go and rend another office for those 20-40 people.

 

[Black]

Great, turn-based delayed, rtwp popamole doing fine

 

[Kz3r0]

DarkUnderlord
Why are you taking the office rent, electricity and water bills into account? Those are fixed cost for the company, since they have their office with infrastructure. They have people working in there regardless of PE. I think this cost is covered by the company's other revenues, not from PE's kickstarter. It's not like they have to go and rend another office for those 20-40 people.

Typical error, those fixed costs should be payed every month, the usual practice is splitting them among the various activities the firm run, because, you know, for a business to be profitable there is the need to cover the fixed costs, hiring costs and turn a profit too, ignoring fixed costs is what incompetents or fraudsters do.

 

[DarkUnderlord]

DarkUnderlord Why are you taking the office rent, electricity and water bills into account? Those are fixed cost for the company, since they have their office with infrastructure. They have people working in there regardless of PE. I think this cost is covered by the company's other revenues, not from PE's kickstarter. It's not like they have to go and rend another office for those 20-40 people.

And how many projects will Obsidian be working on during the time of P:E? What happens if the Stick of Truth gets cancelled - or what happens when it gets finished? What happens if they lose another project or fail to gain one to replace it - and they've been relying on those projects to cover their office costs?

If they do have other projects then at the very least some of the P:E costs must go towards office space and overheads, just to manage that project alone. IE: The office space that the P:E team will be taking up should be paid out of P:E's budget - not another project. Paying for that space out of another project is a sign of Financial Mismanagement 101.

 

[Mrowak]

DarkUnderlord
Why are you taking the office rent, electricity and water bills into account? Those are fixed cost for the company, since they have their office with infrastructure. They have people working in there regardless of PE. I think this cost is covered by the company's other revenues, not from PE's kickstarter. It's not like they have to go and rend another office for those 20-40 people.

This company lives on making projects. The fixed cost of the company you speak of is covered exactly with money from projects - because, what else? Obsidian does not offer any other products or services that could generate revenue. As DU remarked covering your expenses from another project is a sure sign of fail of epic proportions. Bad planning through and through.

 

[J_C]

I think PE is a different beast than other projects. This game is small budget, almost too small comparing it to its scope. I think Obsidian will try (and should try) to decrease the costs of PE. Even if this means that covering some costs from other than PE's kickstarter money.

What happens if during development, they see that they have to throw a few hundred thousand into the project. They will use their own money, not just the one from the kickstarter.

 

[Mrowak]

I think PE is a different beast than other projects. This game is small budget, almost too small comparing it to its scope. I think Obsidian will try (and should try) to decrease the costs of PE. Even if this means that covering some costs from other than PE's kickstarter money.

Ok, so where that money will come from? What do you mean by "their own money"? Obsidian is not known from financial stability - they simply do not have millions stashed in safe place for hard times.

What happens if during development, they see that they have to throw a few hundred thousand into the project. They will use their own money, not just the one from the kickstarter.

That's why I've been whining about a plan all along. Budget, FFS. I know that to you pouring dollars from one project to another might seem like a smart thing to do, but if it happens as a spurr of the moment decision it invariably means the project is in serious danger - there was some serious mismanagement of resources and that the developer cannot even decide on the scope of the project.

 

[Infinitron]

And how many projects will Obsidian be working on during the time of P:E? What happens if the Stick of Truth gets cancelled - or what happens when it gets finished? What happens if they lose another project or fail to gain one to replace it - and they've been relying on those projects to cover their office costs?

If they do have other projects then at the very least some of the P:E costs must go towards office space and overheads, just to manage that project alone. IE: The office space that the P:E team will be taking up should be paid out of P:E's budget - not another project. Paying for that space out of another project is a sign of Financial Mismanagement 101.

What if Obsidian, as a company, has its own dedicated budget for overhead which is separate from all other budgets?

 

[Azrael the cat]

DarkUnderlord
Why are you taking the office rent, electricity and water bills into account? Those are fixed cost for the company, since they have their office with infrastructure. They have people working in there regardless of PE. I think this cost is covered by the company's other revenues, not from PE's kickstarter. It's not like they have to go and rend another office for those 20-40 people.

Typical error, those fixed costs should be payed every month, the usual practice is splitting them among the various activities the firm run, because, you know, for a business to be profitable there is the need to cover the fixed costs, hiring costs and turn a profit too, ignoring fixed costs is what incompetents or fraudsters do.

A brofist isn't enough for this. I only did one accounting unit at uni, many decades ago, but I still get a small glow of anal-pretentious joy when people get their basic business accounting correct.

Re: JC above. If they want to add in their own money, that's fine, but it isn't a reason to not include fixed costs in the budget. Doing the latter is just lying to yourself (and - more importantly - your shareholders, employees and business partners) about your financial position by making a project look more profitable than it actually is.

Edit: Mrohawk is correct as well. If they are going to add their own money in, you really want that to be something pre-planned. Even if it's just a contingent measure noting that game development budgets can be subject to late-development variation and so a pool of money must be set aside to draw from in the latter stages of any project. Obsidian has made a lot of compromises over the years for the justifiable purpose of staying in business, and if they end up producing, say, 5 good games over 15 years, that would already put them ahead of Troika. But if they are going to make those compromises, then the least they should do is make sure that they've got their business elements well-managed. Particularly as if they go under, there really doesn't seem to be many companies around at the moment where talented developers could go and make decent crpgs. It's hard to see what Sawyer, MCA, etc could do other than (a) go to a monolithic company like the various Troika leads did and be a small cog in whatever project EA/Blizzard/Bethesda are making, (b) pull a Warren Spector and say 'fuck it, I've made my PC games - let's just make low-stress mobile phone games for $$$', or (c) leave the gaming industry.

 

[Spectacle]

That's why I've been whining about a plan all along. Budget, FFS. I know that to you pouring dollars from one project to another might seem like a smart thing to do, but if it happens as a spurr of the moment decision it invariably means the project is in serious danger - there was some serious mismanagement of resources and that the developer cannot even decide on the scope of the project.

How long do you "plan" to repeat this point? I think everyone on this site knows by now that you're really really like to see a detailed plan from Obsidian for Project Eternity, and you should know that you won't get to see any. Whether Obsidian has a plan or not they have no reason to share it with the public.