I had a look at the general situation including the financial side posted on the OS forum until they started deleting my posts without explanation.
So maybe a brief recap here for those interested (hopefully my posts don't disappear in this forum):
- According to OS statements, SS3 is about halfway completed.
- OS signed such an idiotic deal with Starbreeze that - halfway into game development - SB was allowed to cancel the publishing deal
without penalties, and - worst of all - OS has to pay all the money back that SB invested so far (who would ever sign such an incredibly stupid deal????).
- That means any publisher who might want to pick up SS3 will have to fund the remaining development of SS3
and will have to refund the payback for Starbreeze.
- SB public filings indicate that advance payments for System Shock 3 were $2.5 million in Nov 2017 and $6.8 million in Nov 2018 (exchange rate from SEK ~1:10) - so any new publisher would have to repay Starbreeze $6.8 million for their past investment, plus about $4 million per year for the remaining development time.
https://www.starbreeze.com/sbz-media/2018/12/Appendix-2-Balance-reports.pdf
- If they started development in 2017 and SS3 is now 'halfway completed,' they are not going to launch SS3 before mid-2020 (and that's probably optimistic). No comment on the launch date has ever been made by OS.
- It is safe to say that OS didn't make and will not make one cent with UA. According to SteamSpy, UA sold about 12,000 copies so far (not including refunds). The current sales price is $7.49, down from $29,99 after launch. Steam is also getting a cut, so total revenues are probably in the $100,000-200,000 range at the moment (with very limited future potential).
http://steamspy.com/dev/OtherSide+Entertainment
- Given how lopsided their deal with Starbreeze was, it is safe to say that the deal with 505 will see all revenues go to them until they recoup their investment (a standard clause in publishing deals). That investment was definitely way above $100-200k. OS won't get one dollar for UA.
- The OS community manager stated that OS will be done with UA after a third round of updates and a console version - given how things are they will likely leave gamers with a still broken mess after Update 3. This will be a huge burden if SS3 were to be released as early access. Many gamers are going to want to wait for the final product.
- I suspect they are just providing these updates to avoid getting sued by 505 for throwing a half-finished game over the fence. The console version is also likely a contractual obligation to 505 they have to fulfil or get sued otherwise (no one would make a console version for a game that failed so spectacularly and throw good money after bad).
- All in all that means, OS has zero revenues for the forseeable future, has one whole team still occupied with UA in the coming months and needs several million dollars in the coming 1-2 years to complete SS3, plus $6.8 million repayment to Starbreeze.
- SEC filings show OS raised $3.6 million in new equity in 2018 a month before UA was released. That checks with OSE Walter saying that they are now using "own money" to pay for the UA updates, so that seems to suggest no other investor is willing to provide more funding to them.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1756400/000156761918004482/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml
https://www.othersideentertainment.com/forum/index.php?topic=8336.msg38708#msg38708
- Both SS1 and SS2 (although highly acclaimed classics) were commercial failures. SS2 only sold 80,000 copies. Not exactly the type of title publishers jump on and this comes just a few months after everyone declined to make a costly SS1 remake with NightDive (they are now making a low-cost version).
Good luck with finding a new publisher for SS3 under these circumstances.
I'm ready to go on the record: This studio is done.
