Clouds on the Horizon
The 340s finally saw some real economic expansion in the Respublica. The government poured its limited resources into high impact socio-economic programmes. They created a slew of jobs in infrastructure and local industry by judicious investment, and micro-financing afforded millions the ability to start up small businesses and community services. The number of people who depended on the state for the basics decreased substantially. Even the poorest were able to partake of the rise in living standards. The military, for its part, also saw some expansion. Though the Fourth Revolution in Military Thinking was not yet fully realized, materially speaking, at least the blueprint was better fleshed out by the end of the decade. In other words, progress was picking up pace, even as the theocracy tightened its grip on absolute authority.
In 347AU Wise-Earl Neymar died from complications related to heart surgery, and was mourned by billions, across the known worlds. His erstwhile successor, Upstanding Karl-Vincent Sturmer, would find Neymar's shoes hard to fill, but his subdued approach to governance was an interesting change from his predecessor's more forceful manner. He would find his hands full, nonetheless, almost immediately. In 348AU, the Commonwealth signed a treaty of Non-Aggression with the Phyr colonies in the Dead Zone. The wording of the agreement made it clear that the Commonwealth was, in essence, extending to the Phyr an independence guarantee and protection from any unwanted Marianite advances. Though there was nothing explicitly aggressive about the treaty, it was certainly a statement made to the Respublica's leadership. Furthermore, the Commonwealth went a step further, by also outright annexing several worlds in open legal dispute; former colonies lost to Codexian authority during the Brotherly Conflict, and never recovered.
These planets were primarily settled by those who had no desire for Marianite discipline, and were, in any case, located in territory outside of the formal jurisdiction of the Respublica. Amongst the settlers, tech-mod refugees, political dissidents and other social outcasts were particularly prominent. Regardless, the Respublica saw itself as the natural successor state to the old Codexian Republic, and the latter's boundaries (at their most expansive) were considered to be the fledgling state's 'birthright'. Suddenly, the inevitability of conflict with the Commonwealth - almost universally accepted in Marianite political thought - seemed poised to become a matter of some immediacy. For their part, the Commos appeared to labour under the same apprehension. Their fleets, too, continued to grow stronger with every passing year. Between 340AU and 349AU, the number of vessels they disposed of grew by some two hundred. According to Marianite intelligence services, they would prove to be a fell and terrible foe, in the event of a conflict. Their people consider Marianites to be some kind of giant bogeyman next door; a clear and present danger that threatens their collective future simply by existing. Marianism presents a fundamental clash of ideologies: secularism vs theocracy and capitalism vs the 'divine' economy.
The obvious question remains: is the Respublica ready for a conflict of this nature? Its society, though relatively cogent, remains frayed at the edges. How much societal stress would it take to undo the enormous strides made by the Marianites, and to bring about a renewed Time of Troubles? A choice must be made.
Do you... decree that the Respublica MUST be ready for war? Armament will continue and accelerate - within economic tolerance - while the military trains and prepares for the coming clash. However, you will not actively pursue conflict. If it must come, let the Commonwealth be the transgressor! [This approach is PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE and entails a MODERATE chance of conflict]
OR
Do you... decree that the Respublica sees nothing but disaster in this treaty, and MUST act decisively? Letting the filthy Commo swine influence the Phyr and gain access to the resources of the Dead Zone would be a terrible mistake. Better to fight this battle now, if it must be fought. Push for war! Find a convenient pretext, and break these dogs! [This approach is ACTIVELY AGGRESSIVE and entails a HIGH chance of conflict]
OR
Do you... decree that the Respublica has no interest in such a war? The Commos act out of fear. Assure them you mean no harm, by unilaterally recognizing their independence and sovereign right. This is the will of Santi Maria. Enough have died! [This approach is LEAST AGGRESSIVE and entails a LOW chance of conflict]
* All references to conflict are regarding an immediate conflict, or one in the near term.
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